Upstream supply full 29-sheet extraction → wiki/data/upstream-supply-key-numbers.md (updated)
2026-04-13: All 10 deep archive agents completed. Key historical findings:
IEA projected 115-121 mb/d for 2030 throughout 1999-2007 (same as OPEC today); peak demand narrative began only in WEO-2021
OPEC has been consistently bullish on demand for 18 years (WOO 2007-2025)
Every EIA AEO from 1979-2005 projected declining US production; actual 2020 was 2x forecast
EIA's largest price miss was $50/b during the 2014 crash ($102 forecast vs $52 actual)
Abqaiq 2019 (5.7 mb/d disruption) resolved in weeks because spare capacity compensated; Hormuz traps spare capacity behind the chokepoint
OPEC world share peaked 48.6% (1979), collapsed to 28.4% (1985); eastward pivot to Asia now dominant
ORB range 2014-2019: $26.50-$105.44; US shale treadmill: OPEC cuts → higher prices → more US supply
Complete 195-variable industry chain framework documented (308 data rows)
2026-04-13: Wiki at 80 pages covering ~1,960 source files across entire archive
2026-04-13: Updated _index.md with all 80 pages
2026-04-13: Full wiki lint check — found 18 broken links (entity references never created), 0 orphan pages, 0 stubs, frontmatter valid, data cross-verified (5 key numbers spot-checked across pages)
2026-04-13: Created entity pages for saudi-arabia.md and uae.md to fix 2 of 18 broken links (remaining 16 are low-priority: US government agencies, minor meeting participants)
2026-04-13: Wiki at 82 pages. Updated _index.md with saudi-arabia and uae entries
2026-04-13: Generated definitive executive Q&A briefing v5 → wiki/briefings/2026-04-13-v5-executive.md — 10 data-backed questions, key numbers reference card, scenario analysis, 5 immediate actions. Synthesizes all 82 wiki pages including deep historical archive
2026-04-13: Updated _index.md with v5 briefing entry
2026-04-13: Fixed manifest staleness — updated all file statuses from "pending/scanned" to reflect actual ingestion state. Updated thesis with deep archive findings. All meta files now current with 82-page wiki state
2026-04-13: Added causal graph (ASCII), investment thesis basis, and recommended positions to v5 executive briefing. Updated doc-analyze skill to require these as mandatory appendices on all future briefings/reports
2026-04-13: Created Chinese translation of v5 executive briefing → wiki/briefings/2026-04-13-v5-executive_chinese.md for Zhang Junming. Wiki now at 84 pages. Updated _index.md