CFTC Positioning Data -- Crude Oil & Energy Complex¶
Summary Dashboard (as of 2026-03-03)¶
| Product | Exchange | Fund Net Position (contracts) | Long/Short Ratio | Signal | WoW Change (Net) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude (Futures) | NYMEX | +172,150 | 1.94:1 | Moderately bullish | +5,738 |
| WTI Crude (F&O) | NYMEX | +247,969 | 3.17:1 | Bullish | +7,004 |
| Brent Crude (F&O) | ICE | +285,594 | 4.79:1 | Strongly bullish | -35,358 |
| RBOB Gasoline | NYMEX | +85,285 | 13.9:1 | Extremely bullish | -3,535 |
| No.2 Heating Oil | NYMEX | +23,352 | 2.03:1 | Moderately bullish | +716 |
| Natural Gas | NYMEX | -76,252 | 0.69:1 | Bearish | +2,778 |
WTI Crude Oil -- NYMEX Futures (Legacy COT Report)¶
Position Data (contracts = 1,000 barrels each)¶
| Date | Total OI | Non-Comm Long | Non-Comm Short | Net Speculative | Spread | Comm Long | Comm Short | Net Commercial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2,073,033 | 355,158 | 183,008 | +172,150 | 785,693 | 842,957 | 1,065,284 | -222,327 |
| 2026-02-24 | 2,102,705 | 352,565 | 179,853 | +172,712 | 821,589 | 827,868 | 1,044,651 | -216,783 |
| 2026-02-17 | 2,087,493 | 321,645 | 180,302 | +141,343 | 829,347 | 855,378 | 1,037,007 | -181,629 |
Percentage of Open Interest¶
| Date | Spec Long% | Spec Short% | Spread% | Comm Long% | Comm Short% | Non-Rpt Long% | Non-Rpt Short% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 17.1 | 8.8 | 37.9 | 40.7 | 51.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| 2026-02-24 | 16.8 | 8.6 | 39.1 | 39.4 | 49.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| 2026-02-17 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 39.7 | 41.0 | 49.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
WTI Crude Oil -- NYMEX Futures & Options (Disaggregated COT)¶
Position Data¶
| Date | Total OI | Fund Long | Fund Short | Net Fund | Fund Spread | Comm Long | Comm Short | Net Commercial | Non-Rpt Long | Non-Rpt Short |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2,889,103 | 362,058 | 114,089 | +247,969 | 1,384,616 | 1,034,193 | 1,336,047 | -301,854 | 108,237 | 54,350 |
| 2026-02-24 | 2,724,561 | 358,603 | 117,639 | +240,964 | 1,265,945 | 983,955 | 1,273,411 | -289,456 | 116,058 | 67,567 |
| 2026-02-17 | 2,577,058 | 324,830 | 125,060 | +199,770 | 1,175,178 | 983,604 | 1,228,480 | -244,876 | 93,447 | 48,341 |
Week-over-Week Changes (2026-03-03)¶
| Category | Change (contracts) |
|---|---|
| Total OI | +164,541 |
| Fund long | +3,455 |
| Fund short | -3,549 |
| Fund spread | +118,670 |
| Commercial long | +50,238 |
| Commercial short | +62,637 |
ICE Brent Crude -- Futures & Options (Disaggregated)¶
Position Data¶
| Date | Total OI | Prod/Merch Long | Prod/Merch Short | Swap Long | Swap Short | Swap Spread | Managed Fund Long | Managed Fund Short | Fund Spread | Other Rpt Long | Other Rpt Short | Other Rpt Spread | Non-Rpt Long | Non-Rpt Short |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 4,186,136 | 1,287,565 | 1,683,000 | 413,871 | 83,832 | 456,784 | 360,987 | 75,393 | 561,425 | 191,464 | 486,141 | 775,936 | 138,104 | 63,625 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4,179,180 | 1,322,924 | 1,727,763 | 438,375 | 69,084 | 402,512 | 413,137 | 92,185 | 559,840 | 196,145 | 499,823 | 772,967 | 73,280 | 55,006 |
| 2026-02-17 | 4,205,644 | 1,338,061 | 1,673,411 | 435,360 | 71,470 | 413,362 | 372,827 | 109,641 | 548,027 | 192,574 | 494,924 | 846,095 | 59,338 | 48,714 |
ICE Brent Percentage of OI (2026-03-03)¶
| Category | Long% | Short% |
|---|---|---|
| Producer/Merchant | 30.8 | 40.2 |
| Swap Dealer | 9.9 | 2.0 |
| Swap Dealer Spread | 10.9 | -- |
| Managed Fund | 8.6 | 1.8 |
| Managed Fund Spread | 13.4 | -- |
| Other Reportable | 4.6 | 11.6 |
| Non-Reportable | 3.3 | 1.5 |
ICE Brent Key Metrics¶
| Metric | 2026-03-03 | 2026-02-24 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Managed Fund | +285,594 | +320,952 | -35,358 |
| Net Prod/Merchant | -395,435 | -404,839 | +9,404 |
| Net Swap Dealer | +330,039 | +369,291 | -39,252 |
| Fund L/S Ratio | 4.79:1 | 4.48:1 | improved |
RBOB Gasoline -- NYMEX Futures (Disaggregated)¶
| Date | Prod/Merch Long | Prod/Merch Short | Swap Long | Swap Short | Swap Spread | Asset Mgr Long | Asset Mgr Short | Asset Mgr Spread | Other Long | Other Short | Other Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 121,863 | 234,696 | 41,067 | 33,084 | 14,333 | 91,889 | 6,604 | 61,773 | 19,435 | 12,903 | 38,194 |
| 2026-02-24 | 151,332 | 269,713 | 40,083 | 32,849 | 16,597 | 97,365 | 8,545 | 61,602 | 23,076 | 13,104 | 42,249 |
Key: Asset manager net long = +85,285 contracts. Long/short ratio = 13.9:1. This is extremely one-sided positioning and represents a potential crowded-trade risk on any demand disappointment.
No.2 Heating Oil -- NYMEX Futures (Disaggregated)¶
| Date | Prod/Merch Long | Prod/Merch Short | Swap Long | Swap Short | Swap Spread | Asset Mgr Long | Asset Mgr Short | Asset Mgr Spread | Other Long | Other Short | Other Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 59,922 | 155,073 | 67,587 | 15,038 | 12,954 | 46,027 | 22,675 | 33,988 | 10,487 | 16,184 | 30,994 |
| 2026-02-24 | 81,846 | 181,971 | 70,256 | 9,914 | 11,723 | 52,940 | 30,064 | 35,909 | 12,446 | 18,491 | 42,709 |
Key: Asset manager net long = +23,352. Prod/merchant net short = -95,151 (heavy hedging).
Natural Gas -- NYMEX Futures (Disaggregated)¶
| Date | Prod/Merch Long | Prod/Merch Short | Swap Long | Swap Short | Swap Spread | Asset Mgr Long | Asset Mgr Short | Asset Mgr Spread | Other Long | Other Short | Other Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 268,795 | 250,398 | 214,994 | 49,031 | 124,118 | 167,244 | 243,496 | 573,892 | 43,233 | 173,403 | 151,044 |
| 2026-02-24 | 276,131 | 245,759 | 201,989 | 49,180 | 127,215 | 154,403 | 230,278 | 573,204 | 47,070 | 169,714 | 159,002 |
Key: Asset manager net SHORT = -76,252 contracts. L/S ratio 0.69:1. Producers nearly balanced (net long +18,397). Swap dealers massively net long (+165,963). Natural gas is the clear bearish outlier in the energy complex.
WTI Crude Oil -- NYMEX Futures & Options (Disaggregated COT) -- May 2026 Update¶
Position Data (Wartime Period)¶
| Date | Total OI | Fund Long | Fund Short | Net Fund | Fund Spread | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | — | — | — | +110,348 | — | 净多周度反弹+15,017，但期权偏斜度收窄 |
| 2026-05-16 | — | — | — | +95,332 | — | 投机净多连续第四周下降 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | — | +106,279 | — | 较上周-10,947 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | — | +112,500 | — | 较上周-6,000+ |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | — | +118,000 | — | 较上周-3,500 |
| 2026-03-03 | 2,889,103 | 362,058 | 114,089 | +247,969 | 1,384,616 | 战前高位 |
Week-over-Week Changes (2026-05-19 vs 2026-05-16)¶
| Category | Change (contracts) | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Fund net | +15,017 | 周度反弹，但需与期权/基金信号综合判断 |
| Net since March peak | -137,621 | 较战前高位累计减仓55.5% |
Key Observations (May 19, 2026)¶
- Net long rebounded from +95,332 to +110,348 -- a +15,017 weekly increase, breaking the four-week streak of reductions. However, this must be interpreted alongside:
- Bullish option skew narrowing to pre-conflict lows (Bloomberg survey) -- tail hedging demand declining
- Hedge fund longs falling to period lows -- smart money continuing to de-risk
-
Interpretation: The net long increase likely reflects commercial hedging activity rather than speculative conviction. Industry participants may be locking in prices ahead of potential downside, while speculators continue to exit.
-
Positioning-price divergence remains extreme: Prices fell ~10% during the week while net longs increased -- the opposite of what "normal" speculative positioning would suggest, reinforcing the view that the rally/selloff is driven by physical/commercial flows rather than speculative positioning.
Investment-Critical Observations¶
Positioning Signals¶
-
WTI spec net long increasing: +172,150 contracts (futures) / +247,969 (F&O), both rising week-over-week. Speculators adding to bullish bets.
-
Brent managed money reducing longs: -52,150 contracts week-over-week. This is a cautionary signal -- the "smart money" may be taking profits or reducing risk exposure. However, the absolute level remains strongly bullish at +285,594 net long.
-
Gasoline positioning at extremes: 13.9:1 L/S ratio is rare and signals either (a) high conviction in summer driving demand or (b) crowded positioning vulnerable to a squeeze if fundamentals disappoint.
-
Natural gas bearish consensus: Managed money holds -76,252 contracts net short. This likely reflects expectations of continued oversupply from US shale gas production and mild weather forecasts.
-
Commercial hedgers are aggressively short crude: WTI commercial net short at -222,327 (futures) and -301,854 (F&O). This is consistent with producers locking in prices at current levels, which historically occurs when producers view prices as favorable.
Risk Factors¶
- Crowded gasoline longs: If summer demand disappoints (EVs, economic slowdown), the 13.9:1 L/S ratio creates conditions for a sharp unwind.
- Brent long reduction: Managed money cutting Brent longs while WTI longs grow suggests a relative value rotation to WTI or a view that international crude is more exposed to demand weakness.
- OI trends diverging: WTI F&O OI growing (+164,541) while ICE Brent flat -- suggests capital flow favoring NYMEX.
- Natural gas contrarian opportunity: When managed money is this bearish on natural gas (0.69:1 L/S), any supply disruption or weather event could trigger a sharp short-covering rally.
May 2026 Critical Update: Positioning-Price Divergence & "Message Fatigue" Phase¶
Key phenomenon (May 2026): WTI prices rose from ~$70 (March) to ~$108 (May) -- a +54% rally -- while speculative net longs fell 61% from +247,969 to +95,332. Then in the week ending May 19, prices crashed ~10% while net longs increased by 15,017 contracts.
Three-phase interpretation:
-
Phase 1 (March-May 16): Physical-driven rally + speculative de-risking -- The rally was NOT driven by speculative froth but by physical supply shortage and commercial buying. Speculators "voted with their feet" -- they saw the supply crisis but were unwilling to hold long exposure at $100+ due to fear of sudden geopolitical reversal.
-
Phase 2 (May 17-22): Message fatigue + directional conviction collapse -- The "deal draft" false report on May 22 triggered extreme intraday volatility ($7+ range in both WTI and Brent). This event marked the transition from "narrative-driven" to "message fatigue" mode -- traders began discounting ALL unverified geopolitical news.
-
Phase 3 (emerging): New equilibrium band -- "Supply gap sets the floor ($90-95), demand destruction sets the ceiling ($100-110), geopolitical news determines the path." The $100 ceiling consensus (Bloomberg survey, May 21) is the key structural development.
Implication: The positioning divergence now has TWO dimensions: (1) price vs. net longs diverged during the rally, and (2) price and net longs moved in opposite directions during the selloff. This confirms that commercial/physical flows are the dominant price driver, and speculative positioning has lost its directional information content.