Geopolitical Risk Indices - Critical Numbers for Investment Decision¶
Data as of 2026-03-02. Source: iFinD (同花顺). All GPR indices base = 100 (1985-2019 average). All EPU indices base = 100 (historical mean).
1. HEADLINE RISK LEVELS (Latest Available)¶
GPR Index (Monthly, Feb 2026)¶
- GPR Overall: 116.70 (above baseline, but DOWN from Jan's 167.67)
- GPR Acts: 84.02 (below baseline -- actual geopolitical events subsiding)
- GPR Threats: 149.57 (elevated -- threat rhetoric remains high)
GPR Index (Daily, as of Mar 2)¶
- GPR Acts: 557.93 (EXTREME -- 5.6x baseline)
- GPR Threats: 804.97 (EXTREME -- 8.0x baseline)
- Note: Main GPR index = 0 on Mar 2 (likely data reporting lag)
- Mar 1 GPR: 369.02 (3.7x baseline)
US Economic Policy Uncertainty (Daily, Mar 2)¶
- US Daily EPU: 630.90 (6.3x baseline)
- UK Daily EPU: 270.80 (2.7x baseline)
2. KEY SPIKES AND ANOMALIES (Feb-Mar 2026)¶
Daily GPR Spikes (>250, base=100)¶
| Date | GPR | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 369.0 | Acts=462, Threats=371 |
| 2026-02-04 | 336.5 | Acts=342, Threats=472 |
| 2026-02-27 | 265.0 | Threats=361 |
| 2026-02-24 | 257.9 | Threats=396 |
Daily US EPU Spikes (>500)¶
| Date | US EPU |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | 697.50 |
| 2026-02-24 | 678.15 |
| 2026-03-02 | 630.90 |
| 2026-02-22 | 629.56 |
| 2026-02-07 | 526.04 |
UK EPU Spikes (>700)¶
| Date | UK EPU |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 748.68 |
| 2026-02-09 | 713.86 |
3. US TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY -- CRITICAL¶
The US Trade Policy EPU sub-index is at extraordinary levels, consistently 20-80x the historical baseline:
| Month | US Trade EPU | Multiple of Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02 | 3,146.54 | 31.5x |
| 2026-01 | 2,250.26 | 22.5x |
| 2025-12 | 3,115.98 | 31.2x |
| 2025-11 | 3,178.67 | 31.8x |
| 2025-10 | 2,558.28 | 25.6x |
| 2025-09 | 3,767.43 | 37.7x |
| 2025-04 | 7,955.65 | 79.6x |
| 2025-05 | 5,780.04 | 57.8x |
| 2025-03 | 5,912.11 | 59.1x |
This is the single most elevated risk indicator in the dataset. Trade policy uncertainty has been running at 20-80x normal since early 2025.
4. US EPU COMPONENT BREAKDOWN (Feb 2026)¶
| Component | Value | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy | 3,146.54 | EXTREME |
| Healthcare | 555.89 | Very High |
| Tax | 481.48 | Very High |
| Regulation | 475.54 | Very High |
| Fiscal (Tax+Spend) | 433.22 | Very High |
| Entitlements | 337.86 | High |
| Monetary Policy | 282.12 | High |
| National Security | 229.87 | Elevated |
| Government Spending | 188.77 | Elevated |
| Tax Code Expiry | 187.52 | Elevated |
| Financial Regulation | 162.08 | Moderate |
| Fed/State Spending | 109.52 | Near Baseline |
| Sovereign Debt | 86.81 | Below Baseline |
| CPI Forecast | 66.39 | Below Baseline |
5. COUNTRY-LEVEL RISK CONCENTRATIONS¶
GPR Reporting Share by Country (Feb 2026, % of total coverage)¶
Top risk-generating countries: 1. United States: 3.05% 2. Russia: 1.25% 3. United Kingdom: 1.11% 4. Israel: 1.10% 5. Ukraine: 0.86% 6. China: 0.80% 7. Venezuela: 0.56% 8. France: 0.55%
Oil-producing nations with elevated GPR coverage: US (3.05%), Russia (1.25%), Saudi Arabia (0.34%), Venezuela (0.56%).
Country EPU Indices (Feb 2026)¶
| Country | EPU | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 789.65 | EXTREME |
| Canada | 653.03 | Very High |
| France | 501.77 | Very High |
| Russia | 452.63 | High |
| Europe | 373.37 | High |
| Brazil | 327.46 | Elevated |
| India | 327.49 | Elevated |
| UK | 202.74 | Moderate |
Canada's EPU was 1,141.55 in Jan 2026 (likely tariff-related), dropping to 653 in Feb.
6. ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDICES (Citi, as of Mar 2)¶
| Region | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific | +52.1 | Strong positive surprise |
| US | +36.1 | Positive surprise |
| Emerging Markets | +29.8 | Positive surprise |
| Global | +25.7 | Positive surprise |
| G10 | +23.0 | Positive surprise |
| Eurozone | +19.5 | Mild positive |
| BRIC | +15.0 | Mild positive |
| Japan | +0.2 | Neutral |
| China | -0.5 | Slight negative |
Key trend: China's surprise index deteriorated from -20.4 (Feb 2) to -0.5 (Mar 2) -- sharp improvement but still negative. US surprise index fell from 53.5 (Feb 2) to 36.1 (Mar 2) -- data coming in below elevated expectations.
7. ZEW SENTIMENT (Feb 2026)¶
Economic Outlook¶
| Region | Current Situation | Expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | -13.6 | +39.4 |
| Germany | -65.9 | +58.3 |
| US | +19.6 | -5.1 |
| China | -31.5 | +13.1 |
Germany: Deep current recession (-65.9) but strong optimism (+58.3). US: Current conditions positive (+19.6) but expectations turning negative (-5.1).
Inflation Expectations¶
- Eurozone: +0.1 (near zero -- no inflation pressure expected)
- Germany: -2.3 (mild deflation expected)
- US: +43.1 (strong inflation expectations)
- China: +10.5 (mild inflation expected)
Interest Rates¶
- US short-term rate expectations: -60.8 (strong expectation of rate cuts)
- Eurozone short-term: -7.4 (mild cut expectations)
- US long-term rates: +40.6 (expected to rise)
- Germany long-term: +35.6 (expected to rise)
ZEW Industry Sentiment (Feb 2026)¶
Best: IT (+48.4), Construction (+43.2), Services (+33.7) Worst: Automotive (-7.2), Steel (+3.6), Retail (+11.5)
8. TREND ANALYSIS AND KEY SIGNALS¶
GPR Monthly Trend (12-month)¶
- Peak: June 2025 at 221.70 (2.2x baseline) -- likely related to major geopolitical escalation
- Recent: Declined from 167.67 (Jan 2026) to 116.70 (Feb 2026)
- BUT: Daily data shows sharp re-escalation in late Feb / early Mar 2026
- The Feb monthly average understates the late-month spike cluster
EPU Historical Peak¶
- April 2025 was the all-time peak period: US Total EPU 460.11, Global GDP-weighted 628.12, US Trade 7,955.65
- Current levels (Feb 2026) are still 2-3x baseline but below the Apr 2025 extremes
- Trade policy remains the dominant driver at 31.5x baseline
Economic Divergence Signal¶
- US economic data surprising to the upside (Citi +36.1) while policy uncertainty is extreme
- China economic data marginally negative (Citi -0.5) but rapidly improving
- Eurozone data mildly positive (+19.5) despite deep current conditions weakness
- This divergence (strong data + extreme uncertainty) is historically unusual and suggests markets are pricing risk premiums that may be excessive OR that the real economic impact has not yet materialized
Oil-Specific Risk Factors¶
- Supply risk countries elevated: Russia (GPR share 1.25%, EPU 452.63), Saudi Arabia (GPR 0.34%), Venezuela (GPR 0.56%)
- Trade policy at 31.5x normal -- direct implications for crude oil trade flows
- US national security EPU at 229.87 -- relevant to strategic petroleum reserve and sanctions policy
- ZEW Brent Oil commodity index: DISCONTINUED -- no forward-looking sentiment data available from this source
9. DATA COVERAGE SUMMARY¶
| Dataset | Frequency | Latest Date | History Depth |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPR Index | Daily | 2026-03-02 | ~15,000 days |
| GPR Index | Monthly | 2026-02-28 | ~1,500 months |
| EPU Index | Monthly | 2026-02-28 | ~600 months |
| US/UK EPU | Daily | 2026-03-02 | ~15,000 days |
| Citi Surprise | Daily | 2026-03-02 | ~6,000 days |
| ZEW Indices | Monthly | 2026-02-28 | ~300 months |