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Geopolitical Risk & Supply Risk Data Source

Raw data extracted from 地缘政治与供应风险.xlsx. File contains 6 data sheets spanning geopolitical risk indices, economic policy uncertainty, economic surprise indices, and ZEW sentiment indicators. All data sourced from iFinD (同花顺).


Sheet 1: GPR Daily Index (地缘政治风险指数GPR(日))

  • Rows: 15,036 data rows (row 5 to 15040)
  • Date range: Most recent is 2026-03-02, data extends back decades (reverse chronological)
  • Unit: 1985-2019 = 100
  • Columns: Date | GPR Index | GPR Acts Index (行为) | GPR Threats Index (威胁)
  • Source IDs: G017266925, G017266926, G017266927

Most Recent Daily Values (March 2026)

Date GPR Index GPR Acts GPR Threats
2026-03-02 0 (data gap) 557.93 804.97
2026-03-01 369.02 461.99 371.07

February 2026 Daily Values

Date GPR Index GPR Acts GPR Threats
2026-02-28 161.08 167.56 186.35
2026-02-27 265.01 204.15 360.59
2026-02-26 216.31 98.58 318.62
2026-02-25 149.44 86.90 227.82
2026-02-24 257.86 105.46 395.86
2026-02-23 149.68 116.78 173.17
2026-02-22 78.13 15.58 129.93
2026-02-21 134.77 42.43 176.95
2026-02-20 148.60 74.07 236.84
2026-02-19 160.39 36.90 246.21
2026-02-18 170.36 75.48 251.84
2026-02-17 96.82 82.73 92.01
2026-02-16 80.99 0 134.69
2026-02-15 21.65 0 36.01
2026-02-14 109.96 123.33 114.29
2026-02-13 152.89 101.61 207.18
2026-02-12 165.95 127.26 201.68
2026-02-11 128.39 153.60 96.09
2026-02-10 65.86 26.26 87.62
2026-02-09 139.18 124.88 115.74
2026-02-08 82.58 54.89 106.82
2026-02-07 195.71 144.52 229.04
2026-02-06 126.92 101.22 158.30
2026-02-05 199.15 225.01 165.60
2026-02-04 336.54 342.08 471.89
2026-02-03 174.35 128.75 182.56
2026-02-02 91.65 78.32 87.10
2026-02-01 106.86 65.56 136.70

January 2026 Daily Values

Date GPR Index GPR Acts GPR Threats
2026-01-31 129.20 61.80 180.50
2026-01-30 161.46 72.70 233.90
2026-01-29 177.90 122.30 244.80
2026-01-28 134.14 93.00 184.30
2026-01-27 207.04 97.10 283.60
2026-01-26 75.15 69.20 67.30
2026-01-25 85.38 68.10 99.40
2026-01-24 101.41 44.90 149.90
2026-01-23 193.85 136.40 256.00
2026-01-22 134.96 85.60 153.00
2026-01-21 180.69 144.10 220.40
2026-01-20 251.91 138.10 303.70
2026-01-19 192.40 116.80 222.60
2026-01-18 89.53 97.40 81.20
2026-01-17 88.19 33.00 128.30
2026-01-16 195.94 85.50 285.10
2026-01-15 153.80 47.20 226.30
2026-01-14 120.80 63.40 179.80
2026-01-13 168.03 119.70 229.50
2026-01-12 186.72 151.70 241.50
2026-01-11 119.83 34.10 199.30
2026-01-10 192.53 112.90 273.10
2026-01-09 131.63 142.20 118.60
2026-01-08 268.92 170.60 335.40
2026-01-07 242.70 65.40 349.10
2026-01-06 248.61 67.00 368.80
2026-01-05 263.89 166.20 300.30
2026-01-04 136.95 85.30 170.80
2026-01-03 192.13 184.90 198.30
2026-01-02 175.08 111.70 232.90

Spike Analysis (Feb-March 2026)

Major daily spikes (GPR > 250 or component > 400):

  1. 2026-03-02: GPR Acts = 557.93, GPR Threats = 804.97 (EXTREME -- both components spiking, GPR main index shows 0 which may be a data gap)
  2. 2026-03-01: GPR = 369.02, Acts = 461.99 (major escalation event)
  3. 2026-02-04: GPR = 336.54, Acts = 342.08, Threats = 471.89 (early-Feb spike)
  4. 2026-02-27: GPR = 265.01, Threats = 360.59
  5. 2026-02-24: GPR = 257.86, Threats = 395.86
  6. 2026-01-20: GPR = 251.91
  7. 2026-01-08: GPR = 268.92, Threats = 335.40
  8. 2026-01-05: GPR = 263.89

Sheet 2: GPR Monthly Index (地缘政治风险指数GPR(月))

  • Rows: 1,504 data rows
  • Date range: Most recent Feb 2026
  • Unit: 1985-2019 = 100 (core indices); % (reporting shares)
  • Columns: 56 columns including core indices and country-level GPR reporting shares

Core Monthly GPR Indices (Last 18 Months)

Month GPR Index GPR Acts GPR Threats Total Share %
2026-02 116.70 84.02 149.57 3.50
2026-01 167.67 99.69 219.09 5.03
2025-12 130.89 122.13 144.22 3.93
2025-11 104.41 88.93 118.65 3.13
2025-10 154.44 149.26 168.80 4.63
2025-09 122.89 114.16 138.33 3.69
2025-08 136.24 119.10 157.75 4.09
2025-07 134.32 118.82 157.33 4.03
2025-06 221.70 181.30 286.83 6.65
2025-05 164.21 146.37 201.01 4.93
2025-04 140.93 131.80 159.43 4.23
2025-03 172.65 157.95 191.86 5.18
2025-02 136.43 140.01 137.77 4.09
2025-01 112.33 109.84 115.36 3.37
2024-12 142.37 164.81 128.26 4.27
2024-11 128.90 127.43 139.15 3.87
2024-10 130.69 142.82 128.41 3.92
2024-09 130.36 135.55 134.04 3.91

Monthly GPR Sub-Component Shares (Feb 2026)

Component Share %
War Threats (战争威胁) 0.84
Peace (和平) 0.05
Arms (军备) 1.99
Nuclear Threats (核威胁) 0.87
Terrorism (恐怖主义) 0.11
War Initiation (开战) 0.87
Escalation (战情升温) 0.46
Terror Acts (恐怖行动) 0.31

Country-Level GPR Reporting Shares (Feb 2026)

Country Share %
United States (美国) 3.05
Russia (俄罗斯) 1.25
United Kingdom (英国) 1.11
Israel (以色列) 1.10
Ukraine (乌克兰) 0.86
China (中国) 0.80
France (法国) 0.55
Venezuela (委内瑞拉) 0.56
Canada (加拿大) 0.43
India (印度) 0.43
Turkey (土耳其) 0.37
Germany (德国) 0.37
Saudi Arabia (沙特阿拉伯) 0.34
Mexico (墨西哥) 0.31
Egypt (埃及) 0.24
South Korea (韩国) 0.21
Japan (日本) 0.17
Switzerland (瑞士) 0.17
Australia (澳大利亚) 0.15
Italy (意大利) 0.13
Denmark (丹麦) 0.12
Spain (西班牙) 0.12
Poland (波兰) 0.12
Taiwan (中国台湾) 0.12
Sweden (瑞典) 0.11
Brazil (巴西) 0.10
Hungary (匈牙利) 0.09
Argentina (阿根廷) 0.07
Belgium (比利时) 0.07
Finland (芬兰) 0.07
Netherlands (荷兰) 0.07
Norway (挪威) 0.07
Thailand (泰国) 0.05
South Africa (南非) 0.05
Colombia (哥伦比亚) 0.04
Indonesia (印度尼西亚) 0.04
Malaysia (马来西亚) 0.04
Philippines (菲律宾) 0.03
Chile (智利) 0.02
Hong Kong (中国香港) 0.01
Peru (秘鲁) 0.01
Portugal (葡萄牙) 0.01

Sheet 3: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index - Monthly (经济政策不确定性指数(月))

  • Rows: 604 data rows
  • Date range: Most recent Feb 2026
  • Unit: Mean = 100
  • Columns: 58 indicators covering global aggregates, US sub-indices, and country-level EPU

US EPU Indices (Last 14 Months)

Month US News US Total US Weighted US Trade US Fiscal US Tax US Health US NatSec US Reg US FinReg US SovDebt
2026-02 386.00 262.27 356.93 3146.54 433.22 481.48 555.89 229.87 475.54 162.08 86.81
2026-01 371.33 253.69 344.12 2250.26 425.54 473.03 683.94 283.76 485.76 246.84 71.01
2025-12 288.60 205.28 359.16 3115.98 358.45 384.91 653.27 250.07 379.43 344.03 62.75
2025-11 311.65 218.77 336.52 3178.67 396.78 417.42 565.06 274.22 311.30 101.98 30.86
2025-10 308.34 217.51 340.45 2558.28 391.26 413.12 765.28 292.61 325.18 126.88 65.70
2025-09 319.84 224.24 331.64 3767.43 375.56 406.97 547.45 235.97 230.60 109.88 30.48
2025-08 370.93 254.13 291.43 2727.15 322.08 344.38 459.31 270.16 269.19 159.38 10.40
2025-07 372.06 251.76 364.91 3371.64 447.40 483.95 530.66 277.08 467.45 243.59 63.59
2025-06 375.59 253.82 379.36 3537.47 494.28 529.57 677.35 293.75 400.58 170.51 378.36
2025-05 563.98 364.05 488.92 5780.04 618.66 634.20 912.08 537.53 466.95 133.02 98.39
2025-04 724.94 460.11 536.90 7955.65 688.95 738.80 713.75 765.62 443.26 401.20 508.72
2025-03 446.30 297.08 494.25 5912.11 625.95 642.23 602.54 646.92 385.30 409.31 119.77
2025-02 329.29 228.62 318.84 2583.90 366.30 387.18 508.76 302.75 339.20 258.09 137.87
2025-01 236.79 167.39 236.44 1725.71 291.74 293.15 415.25 159.32 345.68 97.22 9.81

US EPU Monetary Policy Sub-Index

Month US Monetary Policy
2026-02 282.12
2026-01 302.71
2025-12 247.62
2025-11 261.68
2025-10 244.72
2025-09 374.76
2025-08 288.03
2025-07 342.21
2025-06 288.23
2025-05 422.14
2025-04 452.77
2025-03 448.74

US EPU Additional Sub-Indices (Feb 2026)

Sub-Index Value
Federal/State/Local Spending Forecast 109.52
CPI Forecast Differential 66.39
Tax Code Expiry Index 187.52
Government Spending 188.77
Entitlements 337.86

Global EPU Indices

Month Global GDP-weighted Global PPP-weighted
2025-10 389.43 404.56
2025-09 311.53 297.62
2025-08 348.56 332.07
2025-07 412.36 395.34
2025-06 371.66 358.56
2025-05 517.29 484.72
2025-04 628.12 584.65
2025-03 473.87 459.38
2025-02 330.81 319.96
2025-01 312.90 309.68

Note: Global EPU data not available for Nov 2025 - Feb 2026.

Country EPU Indices (Feb 2026)

Country EPU Index
Germany (德国) 789.65
Canada (加拿大) 653.03
France (法国) 501.77
Russia (俄罗斯) 452.63
Europe (欧洲) 373.37
Brazil (巴西) 327.46
India (印度) 327.49
UK (英国) 202.74
Australia (澳大利亚) 178.77
Spain (西班牙) 173.45
Mexico (墨西哥) 159.20
Italy (意大利) 104.21

Country EPU Indices (Jan 2026)

Country EPU Index
Canada (加拿大) 1141.55
Germany (德国) 940.00
China (中国) 889.82
France (法国) 458.23
Europe (欧洲) 426.58
Brazil (巴西) 411.07
Japan Total (日本) 167.11
Japan Trade Policy 365.88
Japan Fiscal Policy 203.65
Japan FX Policy 145.71
Japan Monetary Policy 103.18
Russia (俄罗斯) 328.05
UK (英国) 302.76
Mexico (墨西哥) 289.66
Spain (西班牙) 221.63
India (印度) 170.68
Australia (澳大利亚) 145.43
Italy (意大利) 94.40

Sheet 4: US & UK Daily Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (日)

  • Rows: 15,038 data rows
  • Date range: Most recent 2026-03-02
  • Unit: Mean = 100
  • Source IDs: G009067321 (US), G009067322 (UK)

Latest Daily Values (Feb-March 2026)

Date US EPU UK EPU
2026-03-02 630.90 270.80
2026-03-01 398.46 311.95
2026-02-28 162.65 194.54
2026-02-27 318.91 103.16
2026-02-26 314.78 278.21
2026-02-25 364.91 748.68
2026-02-24 678.15 310.32
2026-02-23 697.50 360.85
2026-02-22 629.56 418.42
2026-02-21 411.38 161.68
2026-02-20 470.95 165.52
2026-02-19 500.00 329.65
2026-02-18 241.49 273.98
2026-02-17 279.41 140.74
2026-02-16 275.96 98.28
2026-02-15 344.82 204.01
2026-02-14 364.02 110.19
2026-02-13 339.33 434.64
2026-02-12 439.19 369.44
2026-02-11 254.46 146.08
2026-02-10 207.63 246.51
2026-02-09 222.34 713.86
2026-02-08 487.14 301.28
2026-02-07 526.04 186.91
2026-02-06 173.00 179.67
2026-02-05 287.23 216.20
2026-02-04 305.78 184.03
2026-02-03 321.87 350.61
2026-02-02 196.45 171.72
2026-02-01 298.23 319.98

Sheet 5: Citi Economic Surprise Index - Daily (花旗经济意外指数(日))

  • Rows: 5,997 data rows
  • Date range: Most recent 2026-03-02
  • Columns: US, China, Eurozone, Japan, Global, Emerging Markets, Asia-Pacific, BRIC, G10
  • Source IDs: G005326174 (US), G005432431 (China), G005432432 (Eurozone), G005432433 (Japan), G005432436 (Global)

Latest Daily Values

Date US China Eurozone Japan Global EM Asia-Pac BRIC G10
2026-03-02 36.1 -0.5 19.5 0.2 25.7 29.8 52.1 15.0 23.0
2026-02-27 31.9 -1.8 19.6 3.1 27.8 36.7 53.7 23.0 22.0
2026-02-26 30.2 -2.4 20.1 17.4 27.1 34.0 48.4 20.7 22.7
2026-02-25 29.0 -2.9 31.4 18.2 28.6 33.2 46.9 20.2 25.7
2026-02-24 29.0 -3.3 31.9 19.9 28.9 33.3 46.4 21.3 26.1
2026-02-23 27.4 -3.6 32.6 21.2 28.8 33.3 46.2 21.7 25.9
2026-02-20 25.7 -4.4 32.4 23.7 27.4 30.7 44.5 23.7 25.4
2026-02-19 43.4 -4.6 26.0 24.3 29.9 31.1 44.9 24.1 29.4
2026-02-18 36.4 -4.8 26.3 24.9 28.6 31.8 45.2 23.6 26.6
2026-02-17 33.5 -4.9 25.2 9.9 26.7 32.3 45.6 23.9 23.2
2026-02-16 34.3 -5.1 27.5 14.3 28.8 33.1 45.8 24.2 26.3
2026-02-13 35.6 -5.6 26.9 25.9 30.1 33.5 46.3 24.8 28.2
2026-02-12 36.1 -5.7 26.8 27.1 30.4 33.7 45.8 25.5 28.5
2026-02-11 38.5 -5.8 26.8 28.1 31.9 34.2 46.4 25.7 30.8
2026-02-10 34.4 -7.5 26.5 29.0 30.7 33.6 46.0 25.0 29.1
2026-02-09 38.7 -8.5 26.6 29.8 31.1 33.1 45.0 24.5 30.2
2026-02-06 39.5 -17.3 25.1 37.2 29.3 27.4 39.8 13.6 30.8
2026-02-05 38.0 -17.8 27.9 33.6 29.8 29.0 39.9 15.1 30.7
2026-02-04 53.3 -18.2 16.9 34.6 31.2 28.6 37.5 15.0 33.3
2026-02-03 53.4 -19.8 23.1 35.5 32.4 28.1 37.6 14.3 35.6
2026-02-02 53.5 -20.4 22.4 36.3 32.8 28.8 38.4 14.2 35.8
2026-01-30 40.3 -16.0 23.2 38.4 29.1 27.1 35.0 17.1 30.8
2026-01-29 37.5 -16.3 16.6 37.3 24.1 18.9 22.9 19.0 27.9
2026-01-28 25.5 -16.7 6.1 35.6 18.8 17.9 22.5 17.7 19.7
2026-01-27 25.7 -17.3 7.0 36.5 18.2 15.9 19.2 9.8 20.0
2026-01-26 28.5 -17.9 8.7 37.3 18.7 14.6 16.8 9.6 21.6
2026-01-23 25.2 -19.0 15.8 39.4 21.2 19.3 21.9 12.9 22.7
2026-01-22 25.2 -19.3 17.4 39.9 19.5 16.9 16.8 13.1 21.4
2026-01-21 17.6 -19.6 17.9 45.1 18.9 19.9 23.0 13.3 18.5
2026-01-20 18.3 -19.9 20.6 45.6 19.9 20.5 24.6 13.7 19.6

Sheet 6: ZEW Economic Sentiment Indices - Monthly (ZEW经济现状指数(月))

  • Rows: 317 data rows
  • Date range: Most recent Feb 2026
  • Columns: 62 indicators covering current situation, expectations, inflation, interest rates, equities, FX, industry, and China indices
  • Unit: Survey balance (diffusion index)

Core ZEW Indices (Last 14 Months)

Month EZ Current DE Current US Current EZ Expect DE Expect US Expect
2026-02 -13.6 -65.9 19.6 39.4 58.3 -5.1
2026-01 -18.1 -72.7 17.7 40.8 59.6 -3.0
2025-12 -28.5 -81.0 -0.6 33.7 45.8 -12.0
2025-11 -27.3 -78.7 -0.5 25.0 38.5 -21.1
2025-10 -31.8 -80.0 0.5 22.7 39.3 -23.6
2025-09 -28.8 -76.4 -3.3 26.1 37.3 -30.2
2025-08 -31.2 -68.6 0.1 25.1 34.7 -41.2
2025-07 -24.2 -59.5 -5.9 36.1 52.7 -34.2
2025-06 -30.7 -72.0 -17.3 35.3 47.5 -41.9
2025-05 -42.4 -82.0 -25.4 11.6 25.2 -48.2
2025-04 -50.9 -81.2 -23.9 -18.5 -14.0 -71.5
2025-03 -45.2 -87.6 6.7 39.8 51.6 -48.7
2025-02 -45.3 -88.5 42.6 24.2 26.0 1.3
2025-01 -53.8 -90.4 40.1 18.0 10.3 9.0

ZEW Inflation Indices

Month EZ Inflation DE Inflation US Inflation
2026-02 0.1 -2.3 43.1
2026-01 -7.6 -6.0 44.2
2025-12 -4.6 -1.7 54.9
2025-11 -2.7 -0.5 62.6
2025-10 1.7 0.6 66.3
2025-09 -3.4 -0.6 69.5
2025-08 -6.7 -5.1 74.5
2025-07 -5.8 -5.2 64.3
2025-06 -14.7 -13.7 60.0
2025-05 -18.1 -18.6 70.7
2025-04 -3.1 -5.0 75.8

ZEW Interest Rate Indices

Month EZ Short-term US Short-term DE Long-term US Long-term
2026-02 -7.4 -60.8 35.6 40.6
2026-01 -7.7 -65.6 44.5 44.1
2025-12 -10.8 -73.9 49.2 44.9
2025-11 -14.3 -66.7 35.1 30.8
2025-10 -23.3 -69.3 38.3 34.1

ZEW Equity Market Indices

Month EZ STOXX50 DE DAX US DJIA
2026-02 30.3 32.5 25.1
2026-01 35.2 35.9 31.5
2025-12 41.3 36.3 30.2
2025-11 30.0 30.9 22.5
2025-10 22.0 18.6 12.6

ZEW EUR/USD Exchange Rate Index

Month EUR/USD
2026-02 -44.5
2026-01 -44.8 (implied from data)

ZEW Industry Sentiment (Feb 2026)

Sector Index
IT 48.4
Construction 43.2
Services 33.7
Banking 32.2
Electronics 31.3
Insurance 29.0
Utilities 26.0
Telecom 24.4
Mechanical Engineering 21.2
Chemical & Pharma 13.8
Retail & Consumer 11.5
Steel 3.6
Automotive -7.2

ZEW China Indices (Last 14 Months)

Month CN Expectations CN Current CN Inflation CN Short Rate CN Long Rate CN Shanghai EUR/CNY
2026-02 13.1 -31.5 10.5 -25.4 5.2 24.1 -14.6
2026-01 14.9 -31.0 17.5 -28.3 8.5 38.1 -15.2
2025-12 14.4 -36.6 11.2 -26.0 15.3 34.7 -14.4
2025-11 9.8 -33.8 13.7 -19.4 6.3 27.6 -9.0
2025-10 1.9 -34.8 9.1 -21.5 8.6 27.0 -15.9
2025-09 6.2 -32.8 13.1 -24.1 2.2 20.6 -16.1
2025-08 3.9 -40.7 9.8 -26.1 -0.1 13.7 -21.0
2025-07 4.2 -54.4 6.0 -27.9 2.1 16.3 -12.7
2025-06 3.0 -55.7 12.3 -38.9 -0.7 11.4 -24.2
2025-05 -10.3 -59.5 9.8 -38.4 -5.5 12.6 -19.1
2025-04 -38.1 -63.7 16.3 -32.5 0.1 -7.1 -21.8
2025-03 8.0 -52.5 22.0 -26.8 10.5 20.4 -5.0
2025-02 16.7 -58.9 8.2 -39.2 -7.4 22.2 -6.6
2025-01 13.9 -67.5 3.2 -52.4 -21.9 13.0 -18.2

ZEW Brent Oil Commodity Index

This series (停 = discontinued) has no data for the recent period. All values are None for the last 14+ months.


Data Quality Notes

  1. GPR Daily 2026-03-02: The main GPR index reads 0 while sub-indices show extreme values (Acts=557.9, Threats=805.0). This is likely a data reporting anomaly or partial-day data.
  2. Global EPU monthly indices (GDP-weighted and PPP-weighted) are not available for Nov 2025 through Feb 2026.
  3. ZEW Brent Oil index is discontinued (停).
  4. Several country-level EPU indices have gaps (China, Japan, Hong Kong intermittent).
  5. Citi Surprise indices for Canada, UK, and Major Economies are discontinued.