China NDRC Oil Price Data Source¶
File: 同花顺-发改委油价数据20260312.xlsx¶
Provider: National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC / 国家发改委) via 同花顺iFinD Updated: 2026-03-09 Data through: 2026-03-10
Sheet 1: 发改委出厂价 (NDRC Ex-Factory Prices)¶
Daily frequency. 2 indicators. Data from 2000-05-04 to 2026-03-10.
Gasoline and Diesel Ex-Factory Prices (元/吨, tax-inclusive):
| Date | Gasoline (元/吨) | Diesel (元/吨) | Gas-Diesel Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 8,720 | 7,695 | 1,025 |
| 2026-02-25 | 8,025 | 7,025 | 1,000 |
| 2026-02-04 | 7,850 | 6,855 | 995 |
| 2026-01-21 | 7,645 | 6,660 | 985 |
| 2026-01-07 | 7,560 | 6,575 | 985 |
| 2025-12-23 | 7,560 | 6,575 | 985 |
| 2025-12-09 | 7,730 | 6,740 | 990 |
| 2025-11-25 | 7,785 | 6,795 | 990 |
| 2025-11-11 | 7,855 | 6,860 | 995 |
| 2025-10-28 | 7,730 | 6,740 | 990 |
Trend analysis: - Sharp increase from Jan to Mar 2026: gasoline +1,160 元/吨 (+15.3%), diesel +1,120 元/吨 (+17.0%) - Dec 2025 to Jan 2026 was flat (7,560/6,575 unchanged for two adjustment periods) - The March 10 adjustment was the largest single move: gasoline +695 元/吨 (+8.7%), diesel +670 元/吨 (+9.5%) - Gasoline-diesel spread widening slightly: from 985 to 1,025 元/吨
Sheet 2: 发改委调价1 (NDRC Price Adjustments - Beijing Wholesale/Retail)¶
274 columns. Data from 2013 onwards. Covers maximum wholesale and retail prices by grade for Beijing.
Beijing Maximum Wholesale Prices - Delivery System (元/吨):
| Date | 89# Gas | 92# Gas | 95# Gas | 0# Diesel | -10# Diesel | -20# Diesel | -35# Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 9,210 | 9,781 | 10,351 | 8,185 | 8,694 | 9,118 | 9,458 |
| 2026-02-25 | 8,515 | 9,044 | 9,573 | 7,515 | 7,984 | 8,375 | 8,687 |
| 2026-02-04 | 8,340 | 8,858 | 9,377 | 7,345 | 7,804 | 8,186 | 8,492 |
| 2026-01-21 | 8,135 | 8,641 | 9,147 | 7,150 | 7,597 | 7,970 | 8,268 |
| 2025-12-23 | 8,050 | 8,551 | 9,052 | 7,065 | 7,507 | 7,875 | 8,170 |
Beijing Non-Delivery Wholesale Prices (元/吨):
| Date | 89# Gas | 92# Gas | 95# Gas | 0# Diesel | -10# Diesel | -20# Diesel | -35# Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 9,115 | 9,680 | 10,245 | 8,100 | 8,604 | 9,024 | 9,360 |
| 2026-02-25 | 8,427 | 8,950 | 9,474 | 7,437 | 7,901 | 8,288 | 8,597 |
| 2026-02-04 | 8,254 | 8,767 | 9,280 | 7,269 | 7,723 | 8,101 | 8,404 |
Grade premium analysis (Beijing, 2026-03-10): - 92# vs 89#: +571 元/吨 (+6.2%) - 95# vs 92#: +570 元/吨 (+5.8%) - Winter diesel premiums: -10# over 0#: +509 元/吨; -20# over 0#: +933 元/吨; -35# over 0#: +1,273 元/吨
Sheet 3: 发改委调价2 (NDRC Price Adjustments - Shandong Province)¶
179 columns. Per-liter retail and per-tonne wholesale prices for Shandong province.
Shandong Maximum Retail Prices (元/升):
| Date | 89# Gas | 92# Gas | 95# Gas | 0# Diesel | +5# Diesel | -10# Diesel | -20# Diesel | -35# Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 7.06 | 7.60 | 8.15 | 7.21 | 7.07 | 7.63 | 7.96 | 8.24 |
| 2026-02-25 | 6.54 | 7.04 | 7.56 | 6.64 | 6.51 | 7.02 | 7.33 | 7.59 |
| 2026-02-04 | 6.41 | 6.90 | 7.41 | 6.50 | 6.37 | 6.87 | 7.17 | 7.43 |
| 2026-01-21 | 6.26 | 6.74 | 7.23 | 6.33 | 6.20 | 6.69 | 6.98 | 7.24 |
| 2025-12-23 | 6.19 | 6.67 | 7.16 | 6.26 | 6.13 | 6.62 | 6.90 | 7.15 |
Shandong Maximum Wholesale Prices (合同约定配送, 元/吨):
| Date | 89# Gas | 92# Gas | 95# Gas | 0# Diesel | +5# Diesel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 9,185 | 9,754 | 10,323 | 8,160 | 7,991 |
| 2026-02-25 | 8,490 | 9,017 | 9,545 | 7,490 | 7,334 |
| 2026-02-04 | 8,315 | 8,832 | 9,349 | 7,320 | 7,168 |
Sheet 4: 发改委调价3 (NDRC Price Adjustments - Sichuan Province)¶
73 columns. Per-tonne retail and per-liter retail prices for Sichuan province, with 3 pricing tiers.
Sichuan Maximum Retail Prices by Tier (元/吨):
| Date | 89# Tier1 | 89# Tier2 | 89# Tier3 | 92# Tier1 | 92# Tier2 | 92# Tier3 | 95# Tier1 | 95# Tier2 | 95# Tier3 | 0# Diesel T1 | 0# Diesel T2 | 0# Diesel T3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 9,695 | 9,795 | 9,895 | 10,277 | 10,377 | 10,477 | 10,858 | 10,958 | 11,058 | 8,685 | 8,785 | 8,885 |
| 2026-02-25 | 9,000 | 9,100 | 9,200 | 9,540 | 9,640 | 9,740 | 10,080 | 10,180 | 10,280 | 8,015 | 8,115 | 8,215 |
| 2026-02-04 | 8,825 | 8,925 | 9,025 | 9,355 | 9,455 | 9,555 | 9,884 | 9,984 | 10,084 | 7,845 | 7,945 | 8,045 |
| 2026-01-21 | 8,620 | 8,720 | 8,820 | 9,137 | 9,237 | 9,337 | 9,654 | 9,754 | 9,854 | 7,650 | 7,750 | 7,850 |
| 2025-12-23 | 8,535 | 8,635 | 8,735 | 9,047 | 9,147 | 9,247 | 9,559 | 9,659 | 9,759 | 7,565 | 7,665 | 7,765 |
Tier spread: Consistently 100 元/吨between each tier (Tier2 = Tier1 + 100, Tier3 = Tier1 + 200).
China Pricing Mechanism Notes¶
NDRC Adjustment Frequency¶
The NDRC adjusts refined product prices approximately every 10 working days (roughly every 2-3 weeks), based on a 10-day moving average of Brent, Dubai, and WTI crude oil prices.
Recent Adjustment Timeline (2025-2026)¶
| Date | Gasoline Change | Diesel Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | +695 元/吨 | +670 元/吨 | UP |
| 2026-02-25 | +175 元/吨 | +170 元/吨 | UP |
| 2026-02-04 | +205 元/吨 | +195 元/吨 | UP |
| 2026-01-21 | +85 元/吨 | +85 元/吨 | UP |
| 2026-01-07 | 0 | 0 | FLAT |
| 2025-12-23 | 0 | 0 | FLAT (already at same level as 12-09 cut) |
| 2025-12-09 | -55 元/吨 | -55 元/吨 | DOWN |
| 2025-11-25 | -70 元/吨 | -65 元/吨 | DOWN |
| 2025-11-11 | +125 元/吨 | +120 元/吨 | UP |
| 2025-10-28 | -125 元/吨 | -120 元/吨 | DOWN |
Regional Price Differentials (2026-03-10)¶
| Metric | Beijing | Shandong | Sichuan T1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92# Gasoline wholesale (元/吨) | 9,781 | 9,754 | -- |
| 92# Gasoline retail (元/吨) | -- | -- | 10,277 |
| 92# Gasoline retail (元/升) | ~8.02 | 7.60 | -- |
| 0# Diesel wholesale (元/吨) | 8,185 | 8,160 | -- |
Shandong consistently 25-30 元/吨cheaper than Beijing at wholesale level. Sichuan retail prices higher due to inland transportation costs.
Key Findings & Anomalies¶
-
Aggressive Q1 2026 price hikes: Four consecutive upward adjustments from Jan 7 to Mar 10, cumulative gasoline +1,160 元/吨 (+15.3%). This implies significant crude oil price increases in international markets during this period.
-
March 10 adjustment was outsized: +695 元/吨 gasoline in one adjustment is the largest single hike in recent data. This corresponds to a likely $8-10/barrel crude oil price increase over the relevant 10-day window.
-
Winter diesel premium: -35# diesel commands a 1,273 元/吨premium over 0# diesel in Beijing (15.5% premium), reflecting the cost of pour-point depressant additives and limited supply.
-
Sichuan tier system: The 3-tier system (100 元/吨 increments) reflects distance from refineries. This is a feature of China's administered pricing for landlocked provinces.
-
Price floor/ceiling mechanism: China's pricing mechanism includes a floor at $40/bbl and ceiling at $130/bbl. Current prices suggest crude well within this range.
-
Gasoline-diesel spread widening: From 985 to 1,025 元/吨at the ex-factory level, suggesting stronger gasoline demand relative to diesel -- consistent with China's passenger car recovery outpacing industrial/freight activity.