OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports: Historical Extracts 2020-2024¶

This document extracts key metrics from the Oil Market Highlights section (pages 1-8) of 10 sampled OPEC MOMR reports -- January and July of each year from 2020 through 2024. These data points establish the historical baseline for understanding crude oil market cycles and OPEC's evolving outlook.

2020 January (Published 15 January 2020)¶

Pre-COVID baseline -- the last "normal" report

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $66.48/b (Dec 2019 avg; +$3.54 or 5.6% m-o-m)
ICE Brent: $65.17/b (+$2.46 or 3.9% m-o-m)
NYMEX WTI: $59.80/b (+$2.73 or 4.8% m-o-m)
Market structure: all three benchmarks in backwardation

World Economy / GDP¶

Global GDP growth: 3.0% for 2019; 3.1% forecast for 2020 (revised up 0.1 pp)
US: 2.3% (2019), 1.9% (2020f)
Euro-zone: 1.2% (2019), 1.0% (2020f)
China: 6.2% (2019), 5.9% (2020f)
India: 5.5% (2019), 6.4% (2020f)

World Oil Demand¶

2019 demand growth: 0.93 mb/d (revised down 0.05 mb/d)
2020 demand growth forecast: 1.22 mb/d (revised up 0.14 mb/d)
Total world demand: 99.77 mb/d (2019) -> 100.98 mb/d (2020f)
Non-OECD to lead growth at +1.13 mb/d

OPEC Production¶

OPEC crude production (Dec 2019): 29.44 mb/d (down 161 tb/d m-o-m)
OPEC NGLs: 4.80 mb/d (2019), 4.83 mb/d (2020f)
Demand for OPEC crude: 30.6 mb/d (2019), 29.5 mb/d (2020f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,920 mb (Nov 2019 prelim)
62.7 mb above year-ago; 17.5 mb above 5-year average
Days forward cover: 60.6 days (0.6 days below 5-year avg)

Key Context¶

Trade tensions easing between US and China
Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) stabilization efforts ongoing
IMO 2020 low-sulphur fuel regulations taking effect January 1

2020 July (Published 14 July 2020)¶

Deep COVID-19 crisis -- unprecedented demand destruction

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $37.05/b (+$11.88 m-o-m, +47.2% -- recovering from collapse)
ICE Brent: $40.77/b (+$8.36, +25.8%)
NYMEX WTI: $38.31/b (+$9.79, +34.3%)
Contango easing; DME Oman flipped to mild backwardation

World Economy / GDP¶

2020 global GDP: -3.7% (revised down from -3.4%)
2021 forecast: +4.7% (recovery)
US: -5.2% (2020), +4.1% (2021f)
Euro-zone: -8.0% (2020), +4.3% (2021f)
China: +1.3% (2020, only major economy still growing), +6.9% (2021f)
India: -2.5% (2020), +6.8% (2021f)

World Oil Demand¶

2020 demand decline: -8.9 mb/d (revised up 0.1 mb/d from prior month)
2021 demand growth forecast: +7.0 mb/d (historic high rebound)
Total demand implied: ~90.9 mb/d (2020), ~97.9 mb/d (2021f)
Gasoline and diesel expected to record highest y-o-y gains in recovery

OPEC Production¶

OPEC crude production (Jun 2020): 22.27 mb/d (down 1.89 mb/d m-o-m)
Above 100% conformity with DoC decisions
Demand for OPEC crude: 23.8 mb/d (2020), 29.8 mb/d (2021f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 3,167 mb (May 2020 prelim) -- massive pandemic surplus
232 mb above year-ago; 210 mb above 5-year average
Days forward cover: 75.8 days (13.9 days above 5-year avg)

Key Context¶

Historic DoC production cuts in effect (9.7 mb/d agreement)
WTI had gone negative in April 2020
China crude imports surged to record 11.3 mb/d in May 2020
Floating storage unwinding

2021 January (Published 14 January 2021)¶

Early recovery phase -- vaccine rollout beginning

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $49.17/b (Dec 2020; +$6.56, +15% m-o-m)
ORB 2020 annual average: $41.47/b (lowest since 2016)
ICE Brent: $50.22/b (+$6.24, +14.2%)
NYMEX WTI: $47.07/b (+$5.72, +13.8%)
ICE Brent in shallow backwardation; WTI still in contango

World Economy / GDP¶

2020 global GDP: -4.1% (revised up from -4.2%)
2021 forecast: +4.4%
US: -3.5% (2020), +3.4% (2021f)
Euro-zone: -7.2% (2020), +3.7% (2021f)
China: +2.0% (2020), +6.9% (2021f)
India: -9.0% (2020), +6.8% (2021f)

World Oil Demand¶

2020 demand change: -9.8 mb/d (total ~90.0 mb/d)
2021 demand growth forecast: +5.9 mb/d (total ~95.9 mb/d)
OECD +2.6 mb/d, non-OECD +3.3 mb/d in 2021f
China and India strong petrochemical/gasoline demand

OPEC Production¶

OPEC crude production (Dec 2020): 25.36 mb/d (+0.28 mb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2020: 62.7 mb/d (-2.5 mb/d y-o-y)
Demand for OPEC crude: 22.2 mb/d (2020), 27.2 mb/d (2021f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 3,104 mb (Nov 2020 prelim)
205.1 mb above year-ago; 163.1 mb above 5-year average
Days forward cover: 70.5 days (8.5 days above 5-year avg)

Key Context¶

US dollar weakening, supportive for oil and EMs
Massive central bank balance sheet expansion (QE)
US fiscal stimulus prospects providing upside for growth
Market conditions improving for US shale recovery in 2H21

2021 July (Published 15 July 2021)¶

Strong recovery underway -- prices returning to pre-COVID levels

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $71.89/b (+$4.98, +7.4% m-o-m; highest since Oct 2018)
ORB y-t-d average: $63.85/b (+$24.64 or +62.9% vs. prior year)
ICE Brent: $73.41/b (+$5.10, +7.5%)
NYMEX WTI: $71.35/b (+$6.20, +9.5%)
All three benchmarks strengthened in backwardation

World Economy / GDP¶

2021 global GDP: +5.5% (unchanged)
2022 initial forecast: +4.1%
US: +6.4% (2021), +3.6% (2022f)
China: +8.5% (2021), +6.3% (2022f)
India: +9.5% (2021), +6.8% (2022f)
Inflation and sovereign debt flagged as key risks

World Oil Demand¶

2021 demand growth: +6.0 mb/d (total ~96.6 mb/d)
2022 initial forecast: +3.3 mb/d (total ~99.86 mb/d; 100 mb/d exceeded in 2H22)
Pre-pandemic demand levels expected to be reached in 2022

OPEC Production¶

OPEC crude production (Jun 2021): 26.03 mb/d (+0.59 mb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2021: 63.8 mb/d (+0.81 mb/d)
2022 non-OPEC growth forecast: +2.1 mb/d
Demand for OPEC crude: 27.7 mb/d (2021), 28.7 mb/d (2022f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,934 mb (May 2021 prelim)
86.6 mb below 5-year average (deficit territory)
Days forward cover: 64.2 days (0.8 days below 5-year avg)
Stocks drawing sharply -- 276.9 mb below same month last year

Key Context¶

Vaccination rollout driving optimism
Tighter market in 2H21 expected
US upstream investment at ~$348 bn, still half of 2013 peak ($737 bn)
China crude imports declining from inflated 2020 levels

2022 January (Published 18 January 2022)¶

Post-pandemic tightness -- pre-Ukraine invasion

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $74.38/b (Dec 2021; -$5.99, -7.5% m-o-m on Omicron fears)
ICE Brent: $74.80/b (-$6.05, -7.5%)
NYMEX WTI: $71.69/b (-$6.96, -8.8%)
Market structure weakened on Omicron concerns
Speculators cut net longs ~30% Nov-Dec

World Economy / GDP¶

2021 global GDP: +5.5%; 2022 forecast: +4.2%
US: +5.5% (2021), +4.0% (2022f)
Euro-zone: +5.2% (2021), +3.9% (2022f)
China: +8.0% (2021), +5.6% (2022f)
India: +8.8% (2021), +7.0% (2022f)
Supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation flagged

World Oil Demand¶

2021 demand growth: +5.7 mb/d (total 96.6 mb/d)
2022 forecast: +4.2 mb/d (total 100.8 mb/d -- crossing 100 mb/d)
OECD +1.8 mb/d, non-OECD +2.3 mb/d in 2022f
Omicron impact projected "mild and short-lived"

OPEC Production¶

OPEC crude production (Dec 2021): 27.9 mb/d (+0.2 mb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2021: 63.6 mb/d (+0.7 mb/d)
2022 non-OPEC growth: +3.0 mb/d (to 66.7 mb/d)
Demand for OPEC crude: 27.8 mb/d (2021), 28.9 mb/d (2022f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,721 mb (Nov 2021 prelim)
247 mb below 5-year average; 221 mb below 2015-2019 avg
Days forward cover: 60.7 days (3.6 days below 5-year avg)
Crude stocks 143 mb below 5-year avg -- very tight

Key Context¶

Major central banks signaling end of QE / rate hikes
Inflation emerging as key concern
Fed expected to hike rates multiple times in 2022
Refinery margins near record highs
Tanker market weakest in a decade

2022 July (Published 12 July 2022)¶

Russia-Ukraine war impact -- extreme price spike

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $117.72/b (+$3.85, +3.4% m-o-m)
ICE Brent: $117.50/b (+$5.54, +4.9%)
NYMEX WTI: $114.34/b (+$5.08, +4.6%)
Deep backwardation across all benchmarks
Speculators cutting net longs despite high prices

World Economy / GDP¶

2022 global GDP: +3.5%; 2023 initial forecast: +3.2%
US: +3.0% (2022), +2.1% (2023f)
Euro-zone: +3.0% (2022), +2.0% (2023f)
China: +5.1% (2022), +5.0% (2023f)
Russia: -6.0% (2022), +1.2% (2023f)
India: +7.1% (2022), +6.0% (2023f)
"Significant downside risks" from geopolitical tensions, inflation, supply chains

World Oil Demand¶

2022 demand growth: +3.4 mb/d (total 100.3 mb/d)
2023 initial forecast: +2.7 mb/d (total 103.0 mb/d)
COVID resurgence in China revising 2Q22 down

OPEC Production¶

OPEC-13 crude production (Jun 2022): 28.72 mb/d (+234 tb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2022: 65.7 mb/d (+2.1 mb/d), Russia declining
2023 non-OPEC growth: +1.7 mb/d (to 67.4 mb/d)
Demand for OPEC crude: 29.2 mb/d (2022), 30.1 mb/d (2023f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,680 mb (May 2022 prelim)
312 mb below 5-year average; 276 mb below 2015-2019 avg
Days forward cover: 57.3 days (7.6 days below 5-year avg) -- tightest of the period
Crude stocks 176 mb below 5-year avg

Key Context¶

Russia-Ukraine conflict causing massive trade flow rerouting
Suezmax/Aframax benefiting from longer voyages
Europe sanctions on Russian crude approaching
Refinery margins surging on product shortages
OPEC Secretary General Barkindo passed away July 5, 2022
China zero-COVID policy depressing its demand

2023 January (Published 17 January 2023)¶

Post-spike normalization -- monetary tightening biting

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $79.68/b (Dec 2022; -$10.05, -11.2% m-o-m)
ICE Brent: $81.34/b (-$9.51, -10.5%)
NYMEX WTI: $76.52/b (-$7.87, -9.3%)
Brent/WTI spread at $4.82/b
ICE Brent moved into contango for first time in period

World Economy / GDP¶

2022 global GDP: +3.0% (revised up); 2023 forecast: +2.5%
US: +2.0% (2022), +1.0% (2023f)
Euro-zone: +3.2% (2022), +0.4% (2023f)
China: +3.1% (2022 -- depressed by zero-COVID), +4.8% (2023f)
India: +6.8% (2022), +5.6% (2023f)
Russia: -4.0% (2022), -0.5% (2023f)

World Oil Demand¶

2022 demand growth: +2.5 mb/d
2023 forecast: +2.2 mb/d (OECD +0.3, non-OECD +1.9)
Uncertainties: COVID policy shifts in China, geopolitics, economic slowdown

OPEC Production¶

OPEC-13 crude production (Dec 2022): 28.97 mb/d (+91 tb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2022: ~65.5 mb/d (+1.9 mb/d)
2023 non-OPEC growth: +1.5 mb/d
Demand for OPEC crude: 28.5 mb/d (2022), 29.2 mb/d (2023f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,768 mb (Nov 2022 prelim)
137 mb below 5-year average; 173 mb below 2015-2019 avg
Days forward cover: 59.5 days (3.5 days below 5-year avg)

Key Context¶

Aggressive monetary tightening across major central banks
Inverted US yield curve -- recession warning
Strong US dollar pressuring non-USD importers
EU sanctions on Russian oil products imminent (Feb 2023)
China relaxing zero-COVID policy
Clean tanker rates robust on trade dislocations

2023 July (Published 13 July 2023)¶

Market stabilizing -- China reopening

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $75.19/b (Jun 2023; -$0.63, -0.8% m-o-m)
ICE Brent: $74.98/b (-$0.71, -0.9%)
NYMEX WTI: $70.27/b (-$1.35, -1.9%)
Forward curves weakening; money managers heavily cutting longs

World Economy / GDP¶

2023 global GDP: +2.6%; 2024 initial forecast: +2.5%
US: +1.4% (2023), +0.7% (2024f)
Euro-zone: +0.7% (2023), +0.8% (2024f)
China: +5.2% (2023), +4.8% (2024f)
India: +5.6% (2023), +5.9% (2024f)
Tight monetary policies expected to peak end-2023; easing by 2H24

World Oil Demand¶

2023 demand growth: +2.4 mb/d (revised up ~0.1 mb/d on China strength)
2024 initial forecast: +2.2 mb/d (total ~104.25 mb/d)
Non-OECD driving +2.0 mb/d of 2024 growth; OECD only +0.26 mb/d
Transportation fuels (jet fuel, gasoline) key growth drivers

OPEC Production¶

OPEC-13 crude production (Jun 2023): 28.19 mb/d (+91 tb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2023: +1.4 mb/d growth
2024 non-OPEC growth: +1.4 mb/d
Upstream capex ~$480 bn in non-OPEC (2023-2024)
Demand for OPEC crude: 29.4 mb/d (2023), 30.2 mb/d (2024f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,815 mb (May 2023 prelim)
101 mb below 5-year average; 140 mb below 2015-2019 avg
Days forward cover: 60.2 days (3.5 days below 5-year avg)

Key Context¶

China crude imports rebounded to 12.1 mb/d in May
China product imports at record 2.5 mb/d
DoC precautious/proactive/pre-emptive approach highlighted
Services sector main global growth driver

2024 January (Published 17 January 2024)¶

Cautious outlook -- rate cuts anticipated

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $79.00/b (Dec 2023; -$5.92, -7.0% m-o-m)
ICE Brent: $77.32/b (-$4.71, -5.7%)
NYMEX WTI: $72.12/b (-$5.26, -6.8%)
Brent/WTI spread at $5.20/b
Money managers bearish, substantially reducing longs

World Economy / GDP¶

2024 global GDP forecast: +2.6%; 2025 initial forecast: +2.8%
US: +1.0% (2024f), +1.5% (2025f)
Euro-zone: +0.5% (2024f), +1.2% (2025f)
China: +4.8% (2024f), +4.6% (2025f)
India: +5.9% (2024f), +6.1% (2025f)
Inflation expected to continue declining; accommodative policies from 2H24

World Oil Demand¶

2024 demand growth forecast: +2.2 mb/d (OECD +0.3, non-OECD +2.0)
2025 initial forecast: +1.8 mb/d (OECD +0.1, non-OECD +1.7)
Transportation fuels driving growth; air travel recovery continuing

OPEC Production¶

OPEC-12 crude production (Dec 2023): 26.70 mb/d (+73 tb/d m-o-m)
Non-OPEC supply 2024 growth: +1.3 mb/d
2025 non-OPEC growth: +1.3 mb/d
US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway as key growth drivers
Demand for OPEC crude: 28.5 mb/d (2024), 29.0 mb/d (2025f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,819 mb (Nov 2023 prelim)
122 mb below 2015-2019 average
Days forward cover: 61.5 days (0.7 days below 2015-2019 avg)
Stocks stabilizing at structurally lower levels

Key Context¶

OPEC first-ever publication of next-year forecast (2025) in January
Non-OPEC upstream capex ~$473 bn (2025f), slightly below 2024
China crude imports record 11.3 mb/d annual avg in 2023
India crude imports also at record ~4.7 mb/d in 2023
US crude exports record ~4.1 mb/d in 2023

2024 July (Published 10 July 2024)¶

Most recent sample -- stable market, easing inflation

Crude Oil Prices¶

ORB: $83.22/b (Jun 2024; -$0.37, -0.4% m-o-m)
ICE Brent: $83.00/b (unchanged m-o-m)
NYMEX WTI: $78.70/b (+$0.08, +0.1%)
Brent/WTI spread at $4.30/b
Price structure strengthening; selling pressure easing

World Economy / GDP¶

2024 global GDP: +2.9% (revised up from 2.6% in Jan); 2025: +2.9%
US: +2.2% (2024), +1.9% (2025) -- revised up sharply from 1.0%
Euro-zone: +0.7% (2024), +1.2% (2025)
China: +4.9% (2024), +4.6% (2025)
India: +6.6% (2024), +6.3% (2025)
Russia: +3.1% (2024, revised up sharply from 1.4%), +1.5% (2025)

World Oil Demand¶

2024 demand growth: +2.2 mb/d (unchanged; total ~104.5 mb/d)
2025 forecast: +1.8 mb/d (unchanged)
OECD +0.2 mb/d, non-OECD +2.1 mb/d in 2024
Non-OECD driving virtually all incremental demand

OPEC / DoC Production¶

DoC crude production (Jun 2024): ~40.80 mb/d (-125 tb/d m-o-m)
Note: reporting shifted to "DoC" framing (broader group)
Non-DoC supply 2024 growth: +1.2 mb/d; 2025: +1.1 mb/d
DoC NGLs and non-conventional: 8.3 mb/d (2024), 8.4 mb/d (2025)
Demand for DoC crude: 43.1 mb/d (2024), 43.9 mb/d (2025f)

OECD Commercial Stocks¶

Total: 2,813 mb (May 2024 prelim)
142 mb below 2015-2019 average
Crude stocks: 1,366 mb (120 mb below 2015-2019 avg)
Days forward cover: 60.6 days (1.4 days below 2015-2019 avg)

Key Context¶

ECB cut rates by 25 bps; US Fed and BoE held steady
US CPI at 3.3%, still above Fed 2% target
High interest rates constraining upstream investment
Strong USD keeping commodity prices elevated
US crude imports at 5-year high of 7.3 mb/d in June
China crude imports 9% lower y-o-y in May
OPEC forecasting 2024 demand at 104.5 mb/d (record)

Cross-Cutting Observations¶

Price Cycles (ORB monthly average)¶

The ORB traced a dramatic arc: $66.48 (Jan 2020) -> $37.05 (Jul 2020, crisis trough) -> $49.17 (Jan 2021) -> $71.89 (Jul 2021) -> $74.38 (Jan 2022) -> $117.72 (Jul 2022, Russia-Ukraine peak) -> $79.68 (Jan 2023) -> $75.19 (Jul 2023) -> $79.00 (Jan 2024) -> $83.22 (Jul 2024). Post-crisis range settled around $75-85/b.

Demand Trajectory¶

Global demand fell from ~100 mb/d (2019) to ~90 mb/d (2020), then recovered progressively: ~96 mb/d (2021) -> 100 mb/d (2022) -> ~102 mb/d (2023) -> ~104.5 mb/d (2024f). Non-OECD countries (China, India, Middle East) account for essentially all incremental growth from 2023 onward.

OPEC Production Flexibility¶

OPEC production swung from 29.44 mb/d (Dec 2019) to 22.27 mb/d (Jun 2020) during the crisis, then rebuilt to ~28-29 mb/d by 2022-2023 before moderating to ~26.70 mb/d (Dec 2023) under voluntary cuts.

Stock Normalization¶

OECD stocks went from moderate surplus (2,920 mb, Jan 2020) to massive surplus (3,167 mb, Jul 2020) to deep deficit (2,680 mb, Jul 2022) before stabilizing around 2,800-2,820 mb through 2023-2024, persistently below the 2015-2019 average.

Structural Shift in OPEC Reporting¶

From mid-2024, OPEC shifted terminology from "OPEC crude" to "DoC crude" in its balance tables, reflecting the broader OPEC+ framework as the primary unit of analysis.