Crude Oil & Petroleum Inventory Levels
Summary of Current State (as of early March 2026)
Global petroleum inventories are showing mixed signals: U.S. crude stocks are building (+19.5 million barrels over 2 weeks), Singapore oil throughput is surging, Fujairah inventories are volatile, and China's INE futures inventory just experienced a sharp 26% drawdown. The warehousing sector in China shows elevated vacancy in northern cities but tight conditions in western cities.
1. U.S. Petroleum Inventories (EIA Weekly)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated: 2026-03-05 | Unit: Thousand barrels
Current Levels (Week ending Feb 27, 2026)
| Category |
Inventory (thousand bbl) |
Weekly Change |
WoW % |
YoY % |
| Total Crude + Products (incl. SPR) |
1,684,328 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Total Crude + Products (excl. SPR) |
1,268,887 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Commercial Crude Oil |
439,279 |
+3,475 |
+0.80% |
+1.27% |
| Cushing, OK Crude |
26,463 |
+1,564 |
+6.3% |
-- |
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) |
415,441 |
0 |
0% |
-- |
| Total Motor Gasoline |
253,130 |
-1,704 |
-0.67% |
+2.55% |
| Jet Fuel (Kerosene) |
42,090 |
-248 |
-0.59% |
-6.94% |
| Distillate Fuel Oil |
120,780 |
+429 |
+0.36% |
+1.36% |
| Residual Fuel Oil |
24,725 |
+1,684 |
+7.31% |
-0.09% |
| Other Products |
207,363 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Semi-finished Products |
81,831 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
3-Week Crude Oil Build Trend
| Date |
Crude (excl. SPR) |
Cushing |
Gasoline |
Jet Fuel |
Distillate |
| Feb 27 |
439,279 |
26,463 |
253,130 |
42,090 |
120,780 |
| Feb 20 |
435,804 |
24,899 |
254,834 |
42,338 |
120,351 |
| Feb 13 |
419,815 |
24,018 |
255,845 |
43,778 |
120,099 |
Investment-Critical Signals
- Crude build of 19,464 thousand barrels in 2 weeks (+4.6%) is a bearish supply signal.
- Cushing stocks rising (24,018 --> 26,463, +10.2%) -- supports contango structure in WTI futures.
- SPR at 415,441 thousand barrels -- unchanged, no government intervention.
- Jet fuel YoY -6.94% -- demand weakness in aviation sector.
- Residual fuel oil weekly spike of +7.31% -- anomalous, possibly import-driven.
1b. U.S. Petroleum Inventories -- Wartime Update (EIA Weekly, May 2026)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Updated: 2026-05-14 (week ending May 8, 2026) | Unit: Thousand barrels
Current Levels (Week ending May 8, 2026)
| Category |
Inventory (thousand bbl) |
Weekly Change |
vs Expectation |
Signal |
| Commercial Crude Oil |
452,876 |
-4,306 |
-2,051 (超预期一倍) |
去库加速 |
| Cushing, OK Crude |
27,422 |
— |
— |
枢纽库存紧张 |
| Total Motor Gasoline |
215,711 |
-4,084 |
-2,914 (超预期) |
旺季消耗加速 |
| Distillate Fuel Oil |
102,534 |
— |
— |
2005年4月以来最低位 |
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) |
384,100 |
— |
— |
40年来最低 |
Global Inventory Depletion Forecast (EIA May 2026 Update)
| Metric |
Previous Forecast |
Latest Forecast |
Change |
| 2026 global daily inventory draw |
300 kb/d |
2,600 kb/d |
↑767% |
| Q2 2026 peak daily draw |
— |
8,500 kb/d |
新增 |
| Goldman Sachs days-of-demand (end-May) |
101 days |
98 days |
↓逼近临界 |
| IEA global stock draw (March) |
— |
129 million barrels |
创历史纪录 |
| IEA global stock draw (April) |
— |
117 million barrels |
日均约400万桶 |
Investment-Critical Signals (Wartime)
- Commercial crude draw of -4,306 thousand barrels -- double the expected -2,051, confirming accelerated depletion.
- Distillate fuel at 102,534 thousand barrels -- lowest since April 2005, industrial fuel approaching safety red line.
- SPR at 384.1 million barrels -- 40-year low, release space approaching exhaustion.
- EIA revised global draw forecast to 2.6 mb/d -- up from 0.3 mb/d, a seismic upward revision indicating the market is entering "critical inventory" territory.
- Q2 peak draw of 8.5 mb/d -- if realized, global inventories could reach operational minimums by late June.
May 17-23 Supply Gap Update
Source: IEA / EIA | Updated: 2026-05-23
| Metric |
Value |
Signal |
| 海湾国家产量 vs 战前 |
-1440万桶/日 |
供应缺口持续恶化 |
| IEA预测Q2库存缺口 |
600万桶/日 |
Q2仍为极端去库 |
| IEA预测Q3库存缺口 |
190万桶/日 |
较Q2收窄但仍为缺口 |
| EIA评估5月中东中断峰值 |
1080万桶/日 |
中断量维持极高水平 |
Key insight: 供应缺口的事实未变且持续扩大，但在5月20-22日期间，该因子暂时被谈判消息面压倒退居次席。地缘情绪主导短期价格，基本面逻辑暂时让位。缺口数据为油价底部（$90-95）提供硬支撑。
2. Singapore & Fujairah & ARA Oil Inventories
Source: OPEC | Updated: 2026-02-12 | Unit: Million barrels
Current Hub Inventories
| Hub |
Product |
Jan 2026 |
Dec 2025 |
Nov 2025 |
MoM Change |
| Singapore |
Total Oil |
-- |
50.5 |
47.1 |
+7.2% |
| Singapore |
Light Distillates |
-- |
15.6 |
13.3 |
+17.3% |
| Singapore |
Diesel/Gasoil |
-- |
8.2 |
8.6 |
-4.7% |
| Singapore |
Residual Fuel Oil |
-- |
26.8 |
25.2 |
+6.3% |
| Fujairah (UAE) |
Total Oil |
21.49 |
18.97 |
23.04 |
+13.3% |
| Fujairah |
Light Distillates |
8.07 |
7.67 |
7.33 |
+5.2% |
| Fujairah |
Diesel |
2.89 |
2.40 |
3.21 |
+20.4% |
| Fujairah |
Heavy Distillates |
10.53 |
8.90 |
12.50 |
+18.3% |
| ARA |
Total Oil |
-- |
44.7 |
44.6 |
+0.2% |
| ARA |
Gasoline |
-- |
10.0 |
9.4 |
+6.4% |
| ARA |
Gasoil |
-- |
14.7 |
14.9 |
-1.3% |
| ARA |
Residual Fuel |
-- |
7.0 |
6.6 |
+6.1% |
| ARA |
Jet Fuel |
-- |
8.0 |
8.3 |
-3.6% |
Investment-Critical Signals
- Fujairah inventories highly volatile -- swung from 23.04 (Nov) to 18.97 (Dec) to 21.49 (Jan), reflecting active Middle Eastern trading/arbitrage.
- Singapore total at 50.5 million barrels (Dec 2025) is above historical average, indicating comfortable supply in Asia-Pacific.
- ARA inventories stable at ~44.7 million barrels -- European supply well-managed.
3. China INE Crude Oil Futures Inventory
Source: Shanghai International Energy Exchange | Updated: 2026-02-27 | Unit: Barrels
Current Inventory by Crude Grade
| Date |
Total |
Oman |
Basra Light (I) |
Dubai |
Qatar Marine |
Upper Zakum |
| Mar 6, 2026 |
2,557,000 |
158,000 |
1,027,000 |
0 |
0 |
992,000 |
| Feb 27 |
2,557,000 |
158,000 |
1,027,000 |
0 |
0 |
992,000 |
| Feb 20 |
3,464,000 |
158,000 |
1,027,000 |
0 |
0 |
1,899,000 |
| Feb 13 |
3,464,000 |
158,000 |
1,027,000 |
0 |
0 |
1,899,000 |
| Feb 6 |
3,464,000 |
158,000 |
1,027,000 |
0 |
0 |
1,899,000 |
Investment-Critical Signals
- 907,000 barrel drawdown between Feb 20 and Feb 27 (26.2% decline) -- all from Upper Zakum crude.
- Zero deliverable inventory of Dubai and Qatar Marine crude -- potential squeeze risk on these grades.
- Total inventory at 2.557 million barrels is relatively low for the INE contract.
- All inventory concentrated in Shandong delivery warehouses -- no Shanghai inventory.
4. China Warehousing Index
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing | Unit: % (diffusion index, >50 = expansion)
Current Index Values (Jan 2026)
| Sub-Index |
Jan 2026 |
Dec 2025 |
Nov 2025 |
Oct 2025 |
| Total Index |
51.9% |
52.4% |
50.4% |
50.6% |
| Inventory |
53.3% |
51.9% |
50.0% |
49.4% |
| Business Volume |
52.2% |
53.6% |
51.9% |
52.7% |
| Inventory Turnover |
51.9% |
53.4% |
50.0% |
51.2% |
| Facility Utilization |
54.3% |
54.0% |
52.4% |
51.6% |
| Business Activity Expectations |
49.6% |
52.7% |
55.3% |
51.1% |
Investment-Critical Signals
- Inventory sub-index at 53.3% (highest in months) -- warehouses are filling up.
- Facility utilization at 54.3% and rising -- storage capacity tightening.
- Business expectations dropped to 49.6% (contraction) -- operators see weakening demand ahead. This is a leading indicator divergence from current operations.
5. China Warehouse Rent & Vacancy (Dec 2025)
Top-Tier Cities
| City |
Rent (CNY/sqm/month) |
Vacancy (%) |
Signal |
| Shanghai |
45.97 |
21.90 |
High vacancy at premium rates |
| Beijing |
45.05 |
32.80 |
Critical oversupply |
| Shenzhen |
38.08 |
22.69 |
Elevated vacancy |
| Suzhou |
36.23 |
24.09 |
Elevated vacancy |
Tightest Markets (Lowest Vacancy)
| City |
Rent (CNY/sqm/month) |
Vacancy (%) |
| Xi'an |
19.00 |
3.44 |
| Lanzhou |
17.52 |
5.82 |
| Ningbo |
27.82 |
7.70 |
| Nanchang |
17.48 |
7.68 |
| Kunming |
22.24 |
8.45 |
| Hefei |
24.25 |
8.86 |
| Changsha |
24.18 |
8.89 |
| Dongguan |
35.06 |
8.97 |
| Chengdu |
22.23 |
9.53 |
Most Oversupplied Markets (Highest Vacancy)
| City |
Rent (CNY/sqm/month) |
Vacancy (%) |
| Beijing |
45.05 |
32.80 |
| Dalian |
14.10 |
31.05 |
| Jinan |
19.53 |
29.29 |
| Jiaxing |
30.03 |
27.67 |
| Tianjin |
15.00 |
26.88 |
| Shijiazhuang |
15.06 |
25.04 |
| Suzhou |
36.23 |
24.09 |
| Changchun |
12.82 |
23.23 |
6. Global Tanker Shipment Volumes
Source: OPEC | Updated: 2025-01-16 | Unit: Million barrels/day
Current Flows (Dec 2024)
| Flow Category |
Volume (million bbl/day) |
| Spot Departures - All Regions |
12.6 |
| Spot Departures - Middle East/East |
6.3 |
| Spot Departures - Middle East/West |
0.9 |
| Spot Departures - Non-Middle East |
2.3 |
| In Transit - Middle East |
16.4 |
| Arrivals - North America |
9.6 |
| Arrivals - Europe |
11.8 |
| Arrivals - Far East |
14.5 |
| Arrivals - West Asia |
9.5 |
3-Month Trend
| Metric |
Oct 2024 |
Nov 2024 |
Dec 2024 |
Change |
| All Spot Departures |
15.2 |
13.9 |
12.6 |
-17.1% |
| OPEC Spot Departures |
11.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Far East Arrivals |
13.4 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
+8.2% |
| Europe Arrivals |
11.9 |
12.0 |
11.8 |
-0.8% |
Investment-Critical Signals
- Spot departures declining sharply while Far East arrivals remain elevated -- pipeline effect or increased contract/long-term cargoes replacing spot.
- Far East dominates at 14.5 million bbl/day arrivals, confirming Asia-Pacific as the demand center for crude.
- Middle East eastbound (6.3 million bbl/day) represents 50% of total spot departures.