IEA Forecast Evolution: 2025-2026
This page tracks month-to-month changes in IEA Oil Market Report forecasts. All values in kb/d unless otherwise noted. Price data in USD/bbl.
2025 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast (kb/d y-o-y)
| Report |
Date |
2025 Growth |
Chg vs Prior |
Cumulative Chg |
Notes |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
1,050 |
-- |
-- |
Initial forecast |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
1,100 |
+50 |
+50 |
Slight upgrade on improving outlook |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
1,030 |
-70 |
-20 |
Trade tensions; delivery data disappointing |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
730 |
-300 |
-320 |
Tariff shock; GDP cut from 3.1% to 2.4% |
| May 25 |
15 May |
740 |
+10 |
-310 |
First upgrade; US-UK/US-China trade deals |
| Jun 25 |
17 Jun |
720 |
-20 |
-330 |
Weak US/China 2Q25 data |
| Jul 25 |
11 Jul |
700 |
-20 |
-350 |
"Lowest since 2009 ex-Covid" |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
680 |
-20 |
-370 |
Non-OECD underperforming |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
740 |
+60 |
-310 |
OECD resilience; lower prices boosting demand |
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
700 |
-40 |
-350 |
2Q25 trough confirmed at 420 kb/d |
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
790 |
+90 |
-260 |
China 3Q25 rebound; easing trade tensions |
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
830 |
+40 |
-220 |
Improved macro/trade outlook |
Range: 680 (Aug) to 1,100 (Feb). Total revision from peak: -420 kb/d.
2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast (kb/d y-o-y)
| Report |
Date |
2026 Growth |
Chg vs Prior |
Notes |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
690 |
-- |
First 2026 forecast |
| May 25 |
15 May |
760 |
+70 |
Trade deal improvements |
| Jun 25 |
17 Jun |
740 |
-20 |
Weak 2Q25 data |
| Jul 25 |
11 Jul |
720 |
-20 |
Emerging market slowdown |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
700 |
-20 |
Non-OECD weakness |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
700 |
0 |
Unchanged |
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
700 |
0 |
Unchanged |
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
770 |
+70 |
China rebound; easing trade tensions |
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
860 |
+90 |
Improved macro outlook |
| Mar 26 |
12 Mar |
640 |
-220 |
Strait of Hormuz crisis |
Range: 640 (Mar 26) to 860 (Dec 25).
2024 Demand Growth Assessment (kb/d y-o-y) -- Retrospective Revisions
| Report |
Date |
2024 Growth |
Chg vs Prior |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
940 |
-- |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
870 |
-70 |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
830 |
-40 |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
-- |
(not restated) |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
860 |
(restated with data revisions) |
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
980 |
(annual data revisions) |
Note: 2024 assessment continued to shift as annual statistical data submissions replaced monthly estimates. The Nov 2025 figure of ~980 kb/d incorporated Egypt/Nigeria data corrections.
Global Oil Supply Growth Forecast (mb/d y-o-y)
2025 Supply Growth
| Report |
Date |
2025 Supply Growth |
Non-OPEC+ |
OPEC+ (implied) |
Notes |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
1.8 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
OPEC+ cuts assumed in place |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
1.6 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
Sanctions yet to impact |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
~1.6 |
1.5 |
~0.1 |
OPEC+ overproduction offset |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
1.2 |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
US cut 150 kb/d; OPEC+ 411 kb/d announced |
| May 25 |
15 May |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
OPEC+ adding 310 kb/d net |
| Jun 25 |
17 Jun |
1.8 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
OPEC+ unwinding accelerating |
| Jul 25 |
11 Jul |
2.1 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
Saudi ramp-up |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
2.5 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
Full unwind of first tranche by Sep |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
2.7 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
Record supply in Aug (106.9 mb/d) |
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
3.0 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
Supply at 108 mb/d (Sep) |
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
3.1 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
Sanctions on Rosneft/Lukoil |
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
3.0 |
~1.6 |
~1.4 |
Russia/Venez output declining |
2026 Supply Growth
| Report |
Date |
2026 Supply Growth |
Non-OPEC+ |
Notes |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
0.96 |
0.92 |
First forecast |
| May 25 |
15 May |
0.97 |
0.82 |
|
| Jun 25 |
17 Jun |
1.1 |
0.84 |
|
| Jul 25 |
11 Jul |
1.3 |
0.94 |
|
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
1.9 |
1.0 |
OPEC+ second tranche unwind |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
2.1 |
1.0 |
|
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
2.4 |
1.2 |
|
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
2.5 |
1.2 |
|
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
2.4 |
~1.2 |
Slight trim on Russia |
| Mar 26 |
12 Mar |
1.1 |
~1.1 |
Crisis: non-OPEC+ only source of growth |
Brent Crude Price Tracker
| Report |
Date |
Brent Level |
Trend |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
~$81/bbl |
Surging (sanctions + cold weather) |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
~$75/bbl |
Falling (trade war fears) |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
~$70/bbl |
3-year lows |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
~$65/bbl |
Plunged below $60 intraday (tariff shock) |
| May 25 |
15 May |
~$66/bbl |
Stabilizing (trade deals) |
| Jun 25 |
17 Jun |
~$74/bbl |
Spiked on Israel-Iran strikes |
| Jul 25 |
11 Jul |
~$72/bbl |
Post-ceasefire normalization |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
~$67/bbl |
Easing on OPEC+ unwind |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
~$67/bbl |
Range-bound; bearish sentiment |
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
~$64/bbl |
Oil on water surge; supply flood |
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
~$62/bbl |
4-year lows; Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions |
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
~$63/bbl |
5th consecutive monthly decline |
| Mar 26 |
12 Mar |
~$92/bbl |
Spiked near $120; Hormuz crisis |
2025 range: $58-$83/bbl. 2026 crisis range: $63-$120/bbl.
Global Observed Oil Inventories (mb)
| Report |
Date |
Reference Month |
Level (mb) |
Monthly Chg (mb) |
vs 5-yr Avg |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
Nov 24 |
7,655 |
+12.2 |
-- |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
Dec 24 |
7,647 |
-17.1 |
-- |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
Jan 25 |
~7,607 |
-40.5 |
-- |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
Feb 25 |
7,647 |
+21.9 |
Near bottom of range |
| May 25 |
15 May |
Mar 25 |
7,671 |
+25.1 |
-221 mb |
| Jun 25 |
17 Jun |
Apr 25 |
7,717 |
+32.1 |
-- |
| Jul 25 |
11 Jul |
May 25 |
7,818 |
+73.9 |
-- |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
Jun 25 |
7,836 |
+28.1 |
46-month high |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
Jul 25 |
~7,862 |
+26.5 |
-67 mb |
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
Aug 25 |
7,909 |
+17.7 |
4-year high |
| Nov 25 |
13 Nov |
Sep 25 |
~7,987 |
+77.7 |
Highest since Jul 2021 |
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
Oct 25 |
8,030 |
+42 |
4-year high |
| Mar 26 |
12 Mar |
Jan 26 |
8,210 |
-- |
Highest since Feb 2021 |
Cumulative build Jan-Nov 2025: ~424 mb (1.3 mb/d average).
OECD Industry Stocks (mb)
| Report |
Date |
Reference Month |
Level (mb) |
vs 5-yr Avg |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
Nov 24 |
2,749 |
-118 mb (lowest since Aug 2022) |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
Dec 24 |
2,737 |
-91 mb |
| Aug 25 |
13 Aug |
Jun 25 |
2,758 |
Decade-low; -88 mb y-o-y |
GDP Growth Assumptions (%)
| Report |
Date |
2025 GDP |
2026 GDP |
Notes |
| Jan 25 |
15 Jan |
~3.0 |
-- |
-- |
| Feb 25 |
13 Feb |
~3.1 |
-- |
-- |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
3.1 |
-- |
Down 0.1 pp |
| Apr 25 |
15 Apr |
2.4 |
2.5 |
Slashed -0.7 pp (tariff shock) |
| May 25 |
15 May |
2.8 |
2.8 |
Partially recovered |
Implied Supply-Demand Balance (mb/d surplus, annual average)
| Report |
Date |
2025 Balance |
2026 Balance |
Notes |
| Mar 25 |
13 Mar |
~+0.6 |
-- |
First surplus estimate |
| May 25 |
15 May |
~+0.7 |
~+0.9 |
Building surplus |
| Sep 25 |
11 Sep |
~+2.0 |
~+1.4 |
Massive overhang |
| Oct 25 |
14 Oct |
~+1.9 |
-- |
YTD surplus confirmed |
| Dec 25 |
11 Dec |
~+2.0 |
~+1.5 |
3.7 mb/d surplus 4Q25-2026 |
Product-Level Demand Growth: 2025 (kb/d y-o-y)
| Product |
Jan 25 |
Apr 25 |
Jul 25 |
Sep 25 |
Nov 25 |
Dec 25 |
Trend |
| LPG/Ethane |
337 |
310 |
291 |
171 |
204 |
-- |
Crashed on tariffs, recovering |
| Naphtha |
310 |
224 |
168 |
105 |
58 |
-- |
Steady deterioration |
| Gasoline |
100 |
113 |
115 |
180 |
239 |
-- |
Upgraded through year |
| Jet/Kerosene |
175 |
107 |
150 |
202 |
207 |
-- |
Recovered after tariff trough |
| Gas/Diesel |
69 |
-17 |
51 |
249 |
236 |
-- |
Wild swings; strong recovery |
| Fuel Oil |
50 |
12 |
-77 |
-137 |
-138 |
-- |
Deep contraction |
| Total |
1,054 |
726 |
704 |
737 |
788 |
830 |
-- |
OPEC+ Production Milestones (2025)
| Date |
Event |
| 3 Feb |
OPEC+ confirms plan to start unwinding voluntary cuts from April |
| Apr |
First scheduled increase of 138 kb/d (actual increase ~50 kb/d due to overproduction) |
| May |
Surprise: 411 kb/d increase for May (triple the planned amount) |
| Jun |
Second 411 kb/d increase for June |
| Jul |
550 kb/d increase announced for August (80% of voluntary cuts unwound) |
| Aug |
Further increase; full unwind of 2.2 mb/d first tranche by September |
| Sep |
Start of second tranche unwind (137 kb/d/month from October) |
Key Sanctions Timeline
| Date |
Action |
| 10 Jan 2025 |
US sanctions on Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, 160+ tankers |
| 19 Dec 2024 |
US expanded sanctions on Iranian shadow fleet (500+ kb/d of transport capacity) |
| End Jul 2025 |
US Treasury: most significant Iran sanctions since 2018 |
| 3 Sep 2025 |
EU lower price cap for Russian oil (18th sanctions package) |
| Nov 2025 |
US/UK sanction Rosneft and Lukoil |
| 1 Jan 2026 |
EU ban on products refined from Russian crude takes effect |
| 28 Feb 2026 |
US-Israeli strikes on Iran; Hormuz closure |
| Mar 2026 |
OFAC 30-day waiver: Indian buyers can access Russian oil on water |
Critical Investment Signals
Bearish Factors (sustained through 2025)
- Structural OECD demand decline (~50-200 kb/d/year)
- China fuel demand plateau (gasoline falling 3-5%/year)
- Record EV sales displacing gasoline
- Non-OPEC+ supply growth persistent at 1.2-1.7 mb/d/year
- OPEC+ discipline collapse; spare capacity flooding market
- Global stock builds exceeding 1 mb/d for most of 2025
Bullish Factors (emerging late 2025, dominant in 2026)
- Product market tightness despite crude surplus
- Limited spare refining capacity outside China
- Geopolitical risk (Israel-Iran escalation to full conflict)
- Sanctions creating permanent friction in supply chains
- Strait of Hormuz vulnerability realized
- Petrochemical feedstock demand structural growth
- Middle distillate structural tightness
- Non-OECD population-driven demand growth in Africa/SE Asia
Structural Shifts for Long-Term Planning
- Crude quality/geography: Atlantic Basin crude surplus growing; Dubai premium to Dated emerging as structural feature
- Refining: The "missing barrel" -- crude surplus cannot easily become products without refining capacity investment
- NGL/petrochemicals: Becoming primary growth engine; highly exposed to trade policy and geopolitics
- Strategic storage: China Energy Law creating new demand floor; IEA emergency mechanisms tested at unprecedented scale
- Sanctions regime: Now covering ~15% of crude exports and ~11% of product exports globally; permanent feature of market