OPEC Forecast Evolution: January 2025 -- March 2026¶
Tracking month-to-month changes in OPEC's key forecasts. Arrows indicate direction of revision from previous month. All demand/supply growth figures in mb/d y-o-y. GDP figures in % y-o-y.
Table 1: Oil Price Evolution (Monthly Averages, $/b)¶
| Report | Price Month | ORB | ICE Brent | NYMEX WTI | GME Oman | Brent-WTI Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | Dec 2024 | 73.07 | 73.13 | 69.70 | 73.16 | 3.43 |
| Feb 2025 | Jan 2025 | 79.38 | 78.35 | 75.10 | 80.22 | 3.25 |
| Mar 2025 | Feb 2025 | 76.81 | 74.95 | 71.21 | 77.28 | 3.74 |
| Apr 2025 | Mar 2025 | 74.00 | 71.47 | 67.94 | 72.50 | 3.53 |
| May 2025 | Apr 2025 | 68.98 | 66.46 | 62.96 | 67.85 | 3.50 |
| Jun 2025 | May 2025 | 63.62 | 64.01 | 60.94 | 63.88 | 3.07 |
| Jul 2025 | Jun 2025 | 69.73 | 69.80 | 67.33 | 69.49 | 2.47 |
| Aug 2025 | Jul 2025 | 70.97 | 69.55 | 67.24 | 71.42 | 2.31 |
| Sep 2025 | Aug 2025 | 69.73 | 67.26 | 64.02 | 69.23 | 3.24 |
| Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 70.39 | 67.58 | 63.53 | 70.04 | 4.05 |
| Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | 65.20 | 63.95 | 60.07 | 64.95 | 3.88 |
| Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 64.46 | 63.66 | 59.48 | 64.53 | 4.18 |
| Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 61.74 | 61.63 | 57.87 | 61.96 | 3.76 |
| Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 62.31 | 64.73 | 60.26 | 62.79 | 4.47 |
| Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 67.90 | 69.37 | 64.52 | 68.42 | 4.85 |
Price summary: ORB peak $79.38 (Jan 2025), trough $61.74 (Dec 2025). Total decline from peak: -22%. Brent-WTI spread widened from ~$3.25 to ~$4.85 over the period.
Table 2: Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast (mb/d y-o-y)¶
| Report | 2025 Total | 2025 OECD | 2025 non-OECD | 2026 Total | 2026 OECD | 2026 non-OECD | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | -- |
| Feb 2025 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | unch |
| Mar 2025 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | unch |
| Apr 2025 | 1.3 | 0.04 | 1.25 | ~1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 (tariffs) |
| May 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | unch |
| Jun 2025 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | unch total; OECD/nOECD rebalanced |
| Jul 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | unch |
| Aug 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2026 +0.1 |
| Sep 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | unch |
| Oct 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2026 OECD -0.1 |
| Nov 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | unch |
| Dec 2025 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | unch |
| Jan 2026 | -- | -- | -- | 1.4 | 0.15 | 1.2 | unch |
| Feb 2026 | -- | -- | -- | 1.4 | 0.15 | 1.2 | unch |
| Mar 2026 | -- | -- | -- | 1.4 | 0.15 | 1.2 | unch |
Demand takeaway: Only one downward revision in 15 months (Apr 2025, -0.1 mb/d, tariff-driven). 2026 demand was revised back up to 1.4 mb/d in Aug 2025. Forecasts are extremely sticky.
Table 3: Non-DoC Liquids Supply Growth Forecast (mb/d y-o-y)¶
| Report | 2025 | Revision | 2026 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 1.1 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
| Feb 2025 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Mar 2025 | 1.0 | unch | 1.0 | unch |
| Apr 2025 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| May 2025 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
| Jun 2025 | 0.8 | unch | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| Jul 2025 | 0.8 | unch | 0.7 | unch |
| Aug 2025 | 0.8 | unch | 0.6 | -0.1 |
| Sep 2025 | 0.8 | unch | 0.6 | unch |
| Oct 2025 | 0.8 | unch | 0.6 | unch |
| Nov 2025 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 0.6 | unch |
| Dec 2025 | 1.0 | +0.1 | 0.6 | unch |
| Jan 2026 | -- | -- | 0.6 | unch |
| Feb 2026 | -- | -- | 0.6 | unch |
| Mar 2026 | -- | -- | 0.6 | unch |
Supply takeaway: Cumulative downward revision for 2026 non-DoC supply: -0.5 mb/d (from 1.1 to 0.6). This is the single most important analytical signal in the dataset -- OPEC sees meaningful deceleration in non-OPEC+ supply growth, primarily from slowing US tight oil. The 2025 figure was revised up late in the year as actual data arrived (+0.2 mb/d from Oct to Dec), but the 2026 forecast stayed at 0.6 mb/d.
Table 4: World GDP Growth Forecast (%)¶
| Report | 2025 | Revision | 2026 | Revision | US 2025 | China 2025 | India 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 3.1 | -- | 3.2 | -- | 2.4 | 4.7 | 6.5 |
| Feb 2025 | 3.1 | unch | 3.2 | unch | 2.4 | 4.7 | 6.5 |
| Mar 2025 | 3.1 | unch | 3.2 | unch | 2.4 | 4.7 | 6.5 |
| Apr 2025 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| May 2025 | 2.9 | -0.1 | 3.1 | unch | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| Jun 2025 | 2.9 | unch | 3.1 | unch | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.5 |
| Jul 2025 | 2.9 | unch | 3.1 | unch | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.5 |
| Aug 2025 | 3.0 | +0.1 | 3.1 | unch | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 |
| Sep 2025 | 3.0 | unch | 3.1 | unch | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 |
| Oct 2025 | 3.0 | unch | 3.1 | unch | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 |
| Nov 2025 | 3.0 | unch | 3.1 | unch | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.5 |
| Dec 2025 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 3.1 | unch | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.7 |
| Report | 2026 (focus year) | 2027 | US 2026 | China 2026 | India 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 6.6 |
| Feb 2026 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 6.6 |
| Mar 2026 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 6.6 |
GDP takeaway: The tariff shock (Apr--May 2025) cut world GDP by 0.2pp and US GDP by 0.7pp. By Dec 2025, global GDP recovered to 3.1%. US GDP only recovered to 1.8% (vs. original 2.4%), a persistent -0.6pp drag. China was revised up to 4.8% by Aug 2025 on strong stimulus, from the 4.6% tariff-impacted low.
Table 5: DoC Crude Oil Production (mb/d, secondary sources)¶
| Report | Month | Production | m-o-m Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | Dec 2024 | 40.65 | -14 tb/d |
| Feb 2025 | Jan 2025 | 40.62 | -118 tb/d |
| Mar 2025 | Feb 2025 | 41.01 | +363 tb/d |
| Apr 2025 | Mar 2025 | 41.02 | -37 tb/d |
| May 2025 | Apr 2025 | 40.92 | -106 tb/d |
| Jun 2025 | May 2025 | 41.23 | +180 tb/d |
| Jul 2025 | Jun 2025 | 41.56 | +349 tb/d |
| Aug 2025 | Jul 2025 | 41.94 | +335 tb/d |
| Sep 2025 | Aug 2025 | 42.40 | +509 tb/d |
| Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 43.05 | +630 tb/d |
| Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | 43.02 | -73 tb/d |
| Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 43.06 | +43 tb/d |
| Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 42.83 | -238 tb/d |
| Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 42.45 | -439 tb/d |
| Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 42.72 | +445 tb/d |
DoC production takeaway: Production rose by ~2.4 mb/d from Jan 2025 to the peak in Nov 2025 (43.06 mb/d), reflecting the phased unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts. Production then pulled back in Dec 2025--Jan 2026, before recovering in Feb 2026. The surge phase (Jun--Oct 2025) added ~1.8 mb/d in just 5 months, which coincided with the sharp drop in oil prices.
Table 6: OECD Commercial Oil Stocks¶
| Report | Data Month | Total (mb) | vs. 2015-19 Avg | Crude (mb) | Products (mb) | Days Fwd Cover | vs. 2015-19 Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | Nov 2024 | 2,770 | -171 | 1,313 | 1,457 | 60.9 | -1.3 |
| Feb 2025 | Dec 2024 | 2,754 | -172.1 | 1,307 | 1,447 | 61.3 | -1.1 |
| Mar 2025 | Jan 2025 | 2,738 | -188.1 | 1,298 | 1,440 | 60.7 | -1.3 |
| Apr 2025 | Feb 2025 | 2,746 | -173.5 | 1,322 | 1,425 | 60.9 | -1.7 |
| May 2025 | Mar 2025 | 2,740 | -173 | 1,323 | 1,417 | 60.3 | -2.2 |
| Jun 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2,739 | -188 | 1,344 | 1,395 | 59.7 | -2.5 |
| Jul 2025 | May 2025 | 2,771 | -184 | 1,358 | 1,413 | 59.8 | -2.2 |
| Aug 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2,789 | -158.6 | 1,348 | 1,441 | 60.2 | -1.6 |
| Sep 2025 | Jul 2025 | 2,761 | -208.6 | 1,317 | 1,444 | 59.6 | -2.8 |
| Oct 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2,793 | -192.0 | 1,316 | 1,477 | 60.2 | -2.9 |
| Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 | 2,845 | -122.3 | 1,331 | 1,513 | 61.3 | -1.2 |
| Dec 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2,833 | -112.7 | 1,340 | 1,492 | 61.8 | -0.5 |
| Jan 2026 | Nov 2025 | 2,840 | -101.5 | 1,346 | 1,494 | 62.2 | 0.0 |
| Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2,845 | -81.0 | 1,363 | 1,481 | 62.8 | +0.5 |
| Mar 2026 | Jan 2026 | 2,824 | -103.1 | 1,313 | 1,511 | 62.0 | 0.0 |
Stocks takeaway: The deficit to the 2015--2019 average narrowed dramatically from -188 mb (Jan/Apr 2025) to -81 mb (Dec 2025). Days of forward cover moved from a deficit of ~2.5--2.9 days to roughly in line with the 2015--2019 average. This normalisation reflects the impact of the DoC production surge and is a key factor behind the price decline.
Table 7: Demand for DoC Crude (Call on OPEC+)¶
| Report | 2025 (mb/d) | Revision | 2026 (mb/d) | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 42.5 | -0.1 | 42.7 | -- |
| Feb 2025 | 42.6 | +0.1 | 42.9 | +0.2 |
| Mar 2025 | 42.6 | unch | 42.9 | unch |
| Apr 2025 | 42.6 | unch | 42.8 | -0.1 |
| May 2025 | 42.6 | +0.1 | 42.9 | +0.1 |
| Jun 2025 | 42.7 | +0.1 | 43.2 | +0.2 |
| Jul 2025 | 42.5 | -0.3* | 42.9 | -0.3* |
| Aug 2025 | 42.5 | unch | 43.1 | +0.2 |
| Sep 2025 | 42.5 | unch | 43.1 | unch |
| Oct 2025 | 42.5 | unch | 43.1 | unch |
| Nov 2025 | 42.4 | -0.1 | 43.0 | -0.1 |
| Dec 2025 | 42.4 | unch | 43.0 | unch |
| Jan 2026 | -- | -- | 43.0 | unch |
| Feb 2026 | -- | -- | 43.0 | unch |
| Mar 2026 | -- | -- | 42.9 | -0.1 |
*Jul 2025 revision was a technical adjustment due to DoC NGLs baseline update, not a change in growth assumptions.
Call takeaway: The call on OPEC+ crude for 2026 stabilised at 42.9--43.0 mb/d. Actual DoC crude production reached 43.06 mb/d by Nov 2025, suggesting the market was roughly in balance at that point. The combination of rising DoC output and a falling call explains the price weakness.
Table 8: Key Drivers by Period¶
| Period | Dominant Force | Price Direction | Key Numbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan--Mar 2025 | Sanctions, cold weather | Up then down | ORB $73-79; Brent $73-78 |
| Apr--Jun 2025 | Tariff shock, demand/GDP cuts | Sharply down | ORB fell $79->$64; GDP -0.2pp; demand -0.1 mb/d |
| Jul--Aug 2025 | Trade deal hopes, GDP recovery | Bounce | ORB $70-71; GDP +0.1pp; China +0.2pp |
| Sep--Dec 2025 | DoC production surge, bearish specs | Renewed decline | ORB $65-70; DoC output +2 mb/d; stocks normalise |
| Jan--Mar 2026 | Supply outages, bullish specs | Recovery | ORB $62-68; DoC eases back; Brent-WTI widens |
Cumulative Revisions Summary (Jan 2025 to Final)¶
| Variable | Initial (Jan 2025) | Final | Net Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 GDP | 3.1% | 3.1% (Dec 2025) | 0.0pp | Round-tripped |
| 2026 GDP | 3.2% | 3.1% (Mar 2026) | -0.1pp | Slight cut |
| 2025 demand growth | 1.4 mb/d | 1.3 mb/d | -0.1 mb/d | Cut |
| 2026 demand growth | 1.4 mb/d | 1.4 mb/d | 0.0 | Unchanged |
| 2025 non-DoC supply | 1.1 mb/d | 1.0 mb/d (Dec) | -0.1 mb/d | Cut |
| 2026 non-DoC supply | 1.1 mb/d | 0.6 mb/d | -0.5 mb/d | Major cut |
| US GDP 2025 | 2.4% | 1.8% | -0.6pp | Major cut |
| Brent price | $73.13 | $69.37 (Feb 2026) | -$3.76 | Down |
| ORB price | $73.07 | $67.90 (Feb 2026) | -$5.17 | Down |
The single most important finding: OPEC cut its 2026 non-DoC supply growth forecast by nearly half (1.1 -> 0.6 mb/d) over this period, implying that the world outside OPEC+ will deliver substantially less new oil than expected. If this proves accurate, it strengthens the structural case for OPEC+ market power in 2026--2027. This is the key variable to watch for the investment thesis.