Upstream Supply Detail -- Full Numerical Extraction¶
Purpose: Comprehensive numerical data for $1B crude oil investment decision-making. Source file:
供应端政策与产量.xlsx-- 29 sheets, ~7,000+ data series Coverage: 1960--2026 (varies by dataset) Cross-reference: data-upstream-supply (source documentation), upstream-supply-key-numbers (quick reference)
1. Global Oil Daily Production by Country (thousand bbl/day, BP)¶
Full annual series for all major producers. Source: Sheet 全球石油日均产量.
1A. Top-Level Aggregates¶
| Year | World | OECD | non-OECD | OPEC | non-OPEC | N.America | C/S America | Europe&Eurasia | Middle East | Africa | Asia-Pacific |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 96,890 | 31,958 | 64,932 | 32,798 | 64,092 | 27,934 | 7,798 | N/A | 30,119 | 7,294 | 7,285 |
| 2023 | 96,329 | 31,395 | 64,934 | 32,783 | 63,546 | 27,121 | 7,358 | N/A | 30,238 | 7,258 | 7,261 |
| 2022 | 94,313 | 29,697 | 64,616 | 33,000 | 61,313 | 25,443 | 6,618 | N/A | 30,816 | 7,039 | 7,252 |
| 2021 | 90,251 | 28,558 | 61,693 | 30,677 | 59,574 | 24,073 | 6,097 | N/A | 28,137 | 7,334 | 7,366 |
| 2020 | 88,938 | 28,246 | 60,692 | 29,795 | 59,143 | 23,536 | 6,082 | N/A | 27,783 | 7,009 | 7,449 |
| 2019 | 95,114 | 29,066 | 66,048 | 33,617 | 61,497 | 24,427 | 6,428 | N/A | 30,124 | 8,328 | 7,669 |
| 2018 | 95,029 | 15,329 | N/A | 35,589 | N/A | 22,641 | 6,679 | N/A | 31,685 | 8,237 | 7,630 |
| 2017 | 92,565 | 13,143 | N/A | 35,541 | N/A | 20,180 | 7,285 | N/A | 31,316 | 8,086 | 7,773 |
| 2016 | 92,065 | 12,359 | N/A | 35,680 | N/A | 19,279 | 7,590 | 17,716 | 31,709 | 7,636 | 8,051 |
| 2015 | 91,686 | 12,774 | N/A | 34,522 | N/A | 19,749 | 7,992 | 17,479 | 29,901 | 8,099 | 8,378 |
| 2014 | 88,697 | 11,796 | N/A | 32,969 | N/A | 18,851 | 7,661 | 17,206 | 28,405 | 8,196 | 8,284 |
| 2013 | 86,536 | 10,101 | N/A | 32,966 | N/A | 16,976 | 7,411 | 17,174 | 28,117 | 8,577 | 8,253 |
| 2012 | 86,168 | 8,932 | N/A | 34,020 | N/A | 15,583 | 7,376 | 17,127 | 28,451 | 9,205 | 8,397 |
| 2011 | 84,024 | 7,890 | N/A | 32,702 | N/A | 14,345 | 7,456 | 17,387 | 27,981 | 8,512 | 8,311 |
| 2010 | 83,230 | 7,558 | N/A | 31,885 | N/A | 13,850 | 7,419 | 17,694 | 25,612 | 10,161 | 8,456 |
| 2005 | 81,824 | 6,901 | N/A | 32,920 | N/A | 13,707 | 7,337 | 17,516 | 25,480 | 9,771 | 7,991 |
| 2000 | 74,450 | 7,733 | N/A | 29,397 | N/A | 13,892 | 6,690 | 14,989 | 23,292 | 7,783 | 7,880 |
| 1990 | 65,022 | 8,914 | N/A | 22,721 | N/A | 13,823 | 4,507 | 16,074 | 17,242 | 6,667 | 6,712 |
| 1980 | 62,942 | 10,170 | N/A | 25,419 | N/A | 14,063 | 3,747 | 15,096 | 18,872 | 6,219 | 4,946 |
| 1970 | 48,075 | 11,297 | N/A | 22,420 | N/A | 13,257 | 4,829 | 7,974 | 13,922 | 6,113 | 1,980 |
1B. Major Producer Countries (kb/d)¶
| Year | US | Russia | Saudi | Canada | Iraq | China | Brazil | Iran | UAE | Kuwait | Mexico | Norway | Nigeria | Libya | Angola | Venezuela |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20,135 | 10,752 | 10,856 | 5,888 | 4,398 | 4,264 | 3,466 | 5,062 | 4,006 | 2,719 | 1,911 | 1,833 | 1,641 | 1,188 | 1,181 | N/A |
| 2023 | 19,433 | 11,074 | 11,261 | 5,648 | 4,355 | 4,198 | 3,499 | 4,573 | 4,017 | 2,902 | 2,040 | 2,024 | 1,540 | 1,237 | 1,150 | N/A |
| 2022 | 17,925 | 11,202 | 12,140 | 5,575 | 4,520 | 4,111 | 3,112 | 3,894 | 4,120 | 3,023 | 1,943 | 1,907 | 1,445 | 1,109 | 1,191 | N/A |
| 2021 | 16,733 | 11,000 | 10,954 | 5,414 | 4,102 | 3,994 | 2,991 | 3,680 | 3,699 | 2,707 | 1,926 | 2,037 | 1,678 | 1,253 | 1,177 | N/A |
| 2020 | 16,498 | 10,666 | 11,039 | 5,128 | 4,114 | 3,901 | 3,030 | 3,221 | 3,702 | 2,721 | 1,910 | 2,017 | 1,894 | 423 | 1,325 | N/A |
| 2019 | 17,138 | 11,679 | 11,832 | 5,371 | 4,779 | 3,848 | 2,890 | 3,502 | 3,984 | 2,976 | 1,918 | 1,750 | 2,093 | 1,196 | 1,420 | N/A |
| 2018 | 15,329 | 11,562 | 12,261 | 5,244 | 4,632 | 3,802 | 2,691 | 4,747 | 3,894 | 3,050 | 2,068 | 1,863 | 2,000 | 1,135 | 1,519 | N/A |
| 2017 | 13,143 | 11,374 | 11,892 | 4,813 | 4,538 | 3,846 | 2,731 | 4,939 | 3,880 | 3,009 | 2,224 | 1,982 | 1,966 | 892 | 1,671 | N/A |
| 2016 | 12,359 | 11,342 | 12,406 | 4,464 | 4,423 | 3,999 | 2,607 | 4,578 | 4,020 | 3,150 | 2,456 | 2,004 | 1,898 | 388 | 1,745 | N/A |
| 2015 | 12,774 | 11,087 | 11,998 | 4,388 | 3,986 | 4,309 | 2,525 | 3,853 | 3,876 | 3,069 | 2,587 | 1,953 | 2,199 | 412 | 1,796 | N/A |
| 2014 | 11,796 | 10,927 | 11,519 | 4,271 | 3,239 | 4,246 | 2,341 | 3,714 | 3,592 | 3,106 | 2,784 | 1,894 | 2,273 | 495 | 1,701 | N/A |
| 2010 | 7,558 | 10,379 | 9,865 | 3,332 | 2,469 | 4,077 | 2,137 | 4,421 | 2,915 | 2,564 | 2,959 | 2,159 | 2,531 | 1,737 | 1,812 | N/A |
| 2005 | 6,901 | 9,598 | 10,839 | 3,041 | 1,833 | 3,642 | 1,706 | 4,217 | 2,945 | 2,669 | 3,766 | 2,983 | 2,482 | 1,745 | 1,269 | N/A |
| 2000 | 7,733 | 6,583 | 9,121 | 2,703 | 2,613 | 3,257 | 1,276 | 3,850 | 2,599 | 2,244 | 3,456 | 3,246 | 2,174 | 1,475 | 746 | N/A |
| 1990 | 8,914 | 10,342 | 7,106 | 1,968 | 2,149 | 2,778 | 651 | 3,270 | 1,985 | 964 | 2,941 | 1,716 | 1,787 | 1,424 | 475 | N/A |
1C. US Production Growth Trajectory (kb/d)¶
| Year | US Total | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20,135 | +3.6% |
| 2023 | 19,433 | +8.4% |
| 2022 | 17,925 | +7.1% |
| 2021 | 16,733 | +1.4% |
| 2020 | 16,498 | -3.7% |
| 2019 | 17,138 | +11.8% |
| 2018 | 15,329 | +16.6% |
| 2017 | 13,143 | +6.3% |
| 2016 | 12,359 | -3.2% |
| 2015 | 12,774 | +8.3% |
| 2014 | 11,796 | +16.8% |
| 2010 | 7,558 | -- |
| 2005 | 6,901 | -- |
2. OPEC Crude Oil Production -- Monthly (Secondary Sources, kb/d)¶
Source: Sheet OPEC原油产量. Secondary sources include Iran.
2A. Monthly Detail (Jan 2024 -- Jan 2026)¶
| Month | OPEC-13 Total | Saudi | Iraq | Iran | UAE | Kuwait | Nigeria | Libya | Algeria | Angola | Venezuela | Congo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 28,453 | 10,086 | 4,157 | 3,129 | 3,389 | 2,581 | 1,478 | 1,304 | 968 | N/A | 830 | N/A |
| Dec 2025 | 28,588 | 10,073 | 4,119 | 3,210 | 3,376 | 2,576 | 1,497 | 1,311 | 970 | N/A | 917 | N/A |
| Nov 2025 | 28,474 | 10,051 | 4,064 | 3,200 | 3,378 | 2,565 | 1,491 | 1,291 | 964 | N/A | 954 | N/A |
| Oct 2025 | 28,427 | 10,000 | 4,098 | 3,204 | 3,361 | 2,552 | 1,496 | 1,282 | 955 | N/A | 958 | N/A |
| Sep 2025 | 28,427 | 9,960 | 4,064 | 3,275 | 3,354 | 2,515 | 1,491 | 1,313 | 952 | N/A | 963 | N/A |
| Aug 2025 | 27,913 | 9,713 | 4,002 | 3,205 | 3,255 | 2,492 | 1,529 | 1,304 | 942 | N/A | 941 | N/A |
| Jul 2025 | 27,495 | 9,450 | 3,921 | 3,239 | 3,172 | 2,457 | 1,553 | 1,305 | 929 | 263 | 924 | N/A |
| Jun 2025 | 27,286 | 9,356 | 3,953 | 3,257 | 3,060 | 2,444 | 1,543 | 1,283 | 927 | 258 | 919 | N/A |
| May 2025 | 27,050 | 9,175 | 3,939 | 3,324 | 2,975 | 2,430 | 1,513 | 1,304 | 921 | 256 | 925 | N/A |
| Apr 2025 | 26,836 | 9,003 | 3,979 | 3,328 | 2,946 | 2,418 | 1,522 | 1,267 | 912 | N/A | 928 | N/A |
| Mar 2025 | 26,774 | 8,962 | 3,988 | 3,323 | 2,938 | 2,422 | 1,483 | 1,272 | 912 | N/A | 933 | N/A |
| Feb 2025 | 26,866 | 8,953 | 4,014 | 3,323 | 2,953 | 2,413 | 1,540 | 1,297 | 913 | N/A | 919 | N/A |
| Jan 2025 | 26,715 | 8,941 | 3,991 | 3,278 | 2,929 | 2,410 | 1,526 | 1,272 | 904 | N/A | 913 | N/A |
| Dec 2024 | 26,690 | 8,944 | 3,983 | 3,293 | 2,901 | 2,417 | 1,525 | 1,261 | 905 | N/A | 906 | N/A |
| Nov 2024 | 26,769 | 8,962 | 4,029 | 3,302 | 3,004 | 2,417 | 1,497 | 1,220 | 905 | N/A | 898 | N/A |
| Oct 2024 | 26,545 | 8,973 | 4,085 | 3,281 | 2,953 | 2,417 | 1,403 | 1,097 | 909 | 265 | 902 | N/A |
| Sep 2024 | 26,094 | 8,953 | 4,143 | 3,337 | 2,962 | 2,431 | 1,392 | 559 | 909 | 253 | 890 | N/A |
| Aug 2024 | 26,652 | 8,991 | 4,268 | 3,299 | 2,964 | 2,418 | 1,438 | 950 | 910 | 264 | 876 | N/A |
| Jul 2024 | 26,838 | 8,987 | 4,324 | 3,289 | 2,953 | 2,415 | 1,401 | 1,180 | 908 | N/A | 863 | N/A |
| Jun 2024 | 26,535 | 8,897 | 4,186 | 3,250 | 2,936 | 2,423 | 1,369 | 1,194 | 906 | N/A | 848 | N/A |
| May 2024 | 26,638 | 9,000 | 4,222 | 3,240 | 2,936 | 2,430 | 1,359 | 1,177 | 901 | N/A | 838 | N/A |
| Apr 2024 | 26,609 | 9,031 | 4,203 | 3,223 | 2,929 | 2,433 | 1,345 | 1,194 | 907 | N/A | 825 | N/A |
| Mar 2024 | 26,646 | 9,038 | 4,237 | 3,207 | 2,924 | 2,430 | 1,378 | 1,171 | 909 | N/A | 822 | N/A |
| Feb 2024 | 26,581 | 9,016 | 4,230 | 3,161 | 2,931 | 2,434 | 1,411 | 1,161 | 905 | N/A | 824 | N/A |
| Jan 2024 | 26,382 | 8,969 | 4,211 | 3,161 | 2,928 | 2,429 | 1,434 | 1,027 | 912 | N/A | 804 | N/A |
2B. OPEC Annual Average Production (Secondary Sources, kb/d)¶
| Year | OPEC-13 Avg | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28,453 | (1 month) |
| 2025 | 27,571 | +3.7% |
| 2024 | 26,582 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 27,832 | -3.6% |
| 2022 | 28,873 | +9.8% |
| 2021 | 26,300 | +3.7% |
| 2020 | 25,360 | -14.6% |
| 2019 | 29,714 | -8.1% |
| 2018 | 32,336 | -0.0% |
| 2017 | 32,345 | -1.6% |
| 2016 | 32,871 | +4.9% |
| 2015 | 31,328 | +4.4% |
| 2014 | 30,017 | -0.6% |
| 2013 | 30,197 | -2.9% |
| 2012 | 31,106 | +4.5% |
| 2011 | 29,764 | +2.0% |
| 2010 | 29,184 | +1.9% |
| 2009 | 28,648 | -9.9% |
| 2008 | 31,780 | +3.7% |
| 2007 | 30,636 | +2.6% |
| 2006 | 29,851 | -0.1% |
| 2005 | 29,891 | +2.9% |
| 2004 | 29,058 | +8.0% |
| 2003 | 26,907 | +6.3% |
| 2002 | 25,307 | -6.7% |
| 2001 | 27,121 | -- |
2C. OPEC Direct Source Production by Member (Jan 2026, kb/d)¶
| Member | Direct Source | Secondary Source |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 10,100 | 10,086 |
| Iraq | 4,097 | 4,157 |
| Iran | N/A | 3,129 |
| UAE | 3,383 | 3,389 |
| Kuwait | 2,580 | 2,581 |
| Nigeria | 1,459 | 1,478 |
| Algeria | 971 | 968 |
| Libya | 1,378 | 1,304 |
| Venezuela | 924 | 830 |
| Congo | 275 | N/A |
3. OPEC Production Cut Compliance Rate (%)¶
Source: Sheet 原油减产执行率OPEC. Monthly data.
| Month | Compliance (%) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | 75.0 | Sharp drop -- overproduction signal |
| Jan 2025 | 98.5 | |
| Dec 2024 | 96.0 | |
| Nov 2024 | 163.0 | Over-compliance |
| Oct 2024 | 85.0 | |
| Sep 2024 | 97.0 | |
| Aug 2024 | 97.0 | |
| Jul 2024 | 75.0 | |
| Jun 2024 | 121.0 | Over-compliance |
| May 2024 | 97.0 | |
| Apr 2024 | 111.0 | |
| Mar 2024 | 96.4 | |
| Feb 2024 | 33.0 | Extreme non-compliance |
| Jan 2024 | 75.0 | |
| Dec 2023 | 97.0 | |
| Nov 2023 | 163.0 | |
| Oct 2023 | 102.0 | |
| Sep 2023 | 103.0 | |
| Aug 2023 | 116.0 | |
| Jul 2023 | 116.0 | |
| Jun 2023 | 107.0 | |
| May 2023 | 139.2 | |
| Apr 2023 | 194.0 | |
| Mar 2023 | 173.0 | |
| Feb 2023 | 169.0 | |
| Jan 2023 | 172.0 | |
| Dec 2022 | 161.0 | |
| Nov 2022 | 163.0 | |
| Oct 2022 | 334.0 | Extreme over-compliance (involuntary) |
| Jul 2022 | 546.0 | Extreme (capacity constraints) |
| Jun 2022 | 320.0 | |
| May 2022 | 256.0 | |
| Apr 2022 | 162.0 | |
| Mar 2022 | 151.0 | |
| Feb 2022 | 136.0 | |
| Jan 2022 | 129.0 |
Key insight: Values >100% indicate members producing less than their quota (over-compliance), often due to capacity constraints. The 2022 extreme values (up to 546%) reflect OPEC's inability to meet quotas despite permission to increase.
4. Global Crude Oil Proven Reserves (OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin)¶
Source: Sheet 全球原油探明储量. Unit: million barrels.
4A. Major Holders (2024 vs Historical)¶
| Country/Region | 2024 | 2020 | 2015 | 2010 | 2005 | 2000 | 1990 | 1980 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Total | 1,566,869 | 1,555,503 | 1,492,776 | 1,440,576 | 1,249,052 | 1,045,780 | 771,963 | 642,122 |
| OPEC | 1,241,294 | 1,234,177 | 1,171,825 | 1,113,821 | 922,968 | 815,034 | 640,854 | 438,820 |
| OPEC share % | 79.2 | 79.3 | 78.5 | 77.3 | 73.9 | 77.9 | 83.0 | 68.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 267,200 | 267,200 | 266,578 | 264,516 | 264,310 | 263,436 | 260,339 | 168,020 |
| Venezuela | 303,221 | 303,806 | 300,878 | 211,173 | 79,729 | 76,853 | 60,054 | 19,687 |
| Iran | 208,600 | 208,600 | 157,530 | 151,170 | 132,460 | 99,530 | 92,860 | 58,300 |
| Iraq | 145,019 | 145,019 | 142,503 | 115,000 | 115,000 | 112,500 | 100,000 | 30,000 |
| Kuwait | 101,500 | 101,500 | 101,500 | 101,500 | 101,500 | 96,500 | 97,025 | 67,928 |
| UAE | 113,000 | 105,000 | 97,800 | 97,800 | 97,800 | 97,800 | 98,100 | 30,410 |
| Russia | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 74,200 | 76,772 | 48,573 | N/A | N/A |
| USA | 45,014 | 44,394 | 36,520 | 28,396 | 21,371 | 22,045 | 25,860 | 26,500 |
| Canada | 4,344 | 4,879 | 4,469 | 4,189 | 4,352 | 4,863 | 5,558 | 6,800 |
| China | 28,182 | 26,226 | 24,850 | 20,350 | 18,259 | 15,150 | 15,213 | 20,510 |
| Libya | 48,363 | 48,363 | 48,363 | 46,422 | 39,126 | 29,500 | 22,800 | 20,300 |
| Nigeria | 37,280 | 37,070 | 37,062 | 37,200 | 35,876 | 22,454 | 16,027 | 16,700 |
| Algeria | 12,200 | 12,200 | 12,200 | 12,200 | 11,350 | 9,200 | 9,200 | 8,440 |
| Brazil | 15,894 | 13,435 | 13,000 | 14,246 | 11,591 | 8,462 | 4,400 | 1,300 |
| Norway | 6,912 | 8,523 | 7,025 | 7,024 | 9,722 | 10,263 | 8,293 | 8,800 |
| Kazakhstan | 30,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 39,620 | 5,344 | N/A | N/A |
5. World Crude Oil Reserves by Country (EIA, million barrels)¶
Source: Sheet 世界原油储量(分国家和地区). Latest: 2021.
| Region/Country | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 1,696,909 | 1,661,971 | 1,659,198 | 1,662,751 | 1,647,121 |
| Middle East | 847,836 | 803,170 | 804,622 | 807,729 | 802,913 |
| N. America | 214,298 | 222,820 | 220,881 | 219,749 | 212,180 |
| C/S America | 330,929 | 330,609 | 329,669 | 328,938 | 327,539 |
| Eurasia | 118,624 | 118,624 | 118,624 | 118,624 | 118,624 |
| Africa | 124,619 | 125,178 | 124,612 | 127,292 | 126,481 |
| Europe | 12,676 | 12,957 | 12,541 | 12,214 | 11,297 |
| Asia-Pacific | 45,659 | 46,347 | 45,945 | 45,872 | 45,723 |
| Saudi Arabia | 258,600 | 267,026 | 266,260 | 266,208 | 266,455 |
| Venezuela | 303,806 | 302,809 | 302,809 | 302,250 | 300,878 |
| Canada | 170,300 | 169,862 | 167,401 | 170,540 | 169,709 |
| Iran | 208,600 | 155,600 | 155,600 | 157,200 | 158,400 |
| Iraq | 145,019 | 145,019 | 147,223 | 148,766 | 142,503 |
| Kuwait | 101,500 | 101,500 | 101,500 | 101,500 | 101,500 |
| UAE | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Russia | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 | 80,000 |
| USA | 38,212 | 47,172 | 47,053 | 41,990 | 35,213 |
| Libya | 48,363 | 48,363 | 48,363 | 48,363 | 48,363 |
| Nigeria | 36,890 | 36,972 | 36,182 | 37,453 | 37,062 |
| China | 26,023 | 26,154 | 25,927 | 25,627 | 25,620 |
| Kazakhstan | 30,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 |
| Norway | 8,122 | 8,219 | 8,047 | 7,717 | 6,611 |
| Brazil | 12,715 | 13,435 | 12,835 | 12,634 | 13,000 |
| Oman | 5,373 | 5,373 | 5,373 | 5,373 | 5,373 |
| Qatar | 25,244 | 25,244 | 25,244 | 25,244 | 25,244 |
| Algeria | 12,200 | 12,200 | 12,200 | 12,200 | 12,200 |
6. Global Active Drilling Rigs (Baker Hughes, Annual Average)¶
Source: Sheet 全球运行中的钻井平台数. Unit: number of rigs.
| Year | World | N.America | US | Canada | LatAm | W.Europe | Mid East | Africa | Asia-Pac | OPEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1,802 | 751 | 589 | 162 | 103 | N/A | 463 | 144 | N/A | 500 |
| 2023 | 1,915 | 775 | 623 | 152 | 114 | N/A | 471 | 189 | N/A | 534 |
| 2022 | 2,071 | 924 | 779 | 145 | 131 | N/A | 434 | 242 | N/A | 549 |
| 2021 | 1,761 | 729 | 580 | 149 | 112 | N/A | 406 | 187 | N/A | 475 |
| 2020 | 1,306 | 432 | 341 | 91 | 78 | 52 | 383 | 129 | 17 | 435 |
| 2019 | 2,291 | 939 | 804 | 135 | 265 | 77 | 532 | 173 | 29 | 700 |
| 2018 | 2,631 | 1,219 | 1,078 | 141 | 304 | 72 | 566 | 173 | 24 | 768 |
| 2017 | 2,444 | 1,135 | 930 | 205 | 325 | 64 | 535 | 118 | 15 | 726 |
| 2016 | 2,125 | 843 | 634 | 209 | 247 | 80 | 566 | 141 | 10 | 723 |
| 2015 | 2,315 | 855 | 711 | 144 | 346 | 90 | 529 | 214 | 17 | 754 |
| 2014 | 3,986 | 2,255 | 1,881 | 374 | 477 | 115 | 493 | 269 | 25 | 790 |
| 2013 | 3,866 | 2,146 | 1,774 | 372 | 448 | 95 | 513 | 270 | 28 | 770 |
| 2012 | 3,770 | 2,137 | 1,784 | 353 | 399 | 110 | 518 | 211 | 31 | 695 |
| 2011 | 4,001 | 2,432 | 2,003 | 429 | 400 | 83 | 446 | 243 | 18 | 607 |
| 2010 | 3,465 | 2,109 | 1,711 | 398 | 345 | 83 | 319 | 207 | 22 | 479 |
| 2005 | 3,038 | 2,045 | 1,470 | 575 | 232 | 65 | 225 | 121 | 23 | 278 |
| 2000 | 2,230 | 1,507 | 1,097 | 410 | 191 | 84 | 166 | 74 | 20 | 201 |
| 1990 | 2,288 | 1,325 | 1,136 | 189 | 161 | 149 | 113 | 119 | 25 | 196 |
Key trend: US rig count fell from 1,881 (2014) to 589 (2024) -- a 69% decline -- yet US production rose from 11,796 to 20,135 kb/d over the same period. This reflects massive efficiency gains in horizontal/shale drilling.
7. North America Rotary Rig Count -- Weekly (Baker Hughes)¶
Source: Sheet 北美旋转钻井机数(周). Unit: rigs. ~2,120 weekly observations.
7A. Recent Weekly Data (2026)¶
| Week Ending | N.America | US Total | US Oil | US Gas | US Other | Gulf of Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 729 | 552 | 414 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-03-13 | 750 | 553 | 412 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-03-06 | 756 | 551 | 411 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-02-27 | 764 | 550 | 407 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-02-20 | 775 | 551 | 409 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-02-13 | 773 | 551 | 409 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-02-06 | 779 | 551 | 412 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-01-30 | 778 | 546 | 411 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-01-23 | 775 | 544 | 411 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-01-16 | 769 | 543 | 410 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-01-09 | 741 | 544 | 409 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2026-01-02 | 647 | 546 | 412 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7B. Weekly Data Q4 2025¶
| Week Ending | N.America | US Total | US Oil | US Gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 663 | 545 | 409 | N/A |
| 2025-12-19 | 727 | 542 | 406 | N/A |
| 2025-12-12 | 740 | 548 | 414 | N/A |
| 2025-12-05 | 740 | 549 | 413 | N/A |
| 2025-11-28 | 732 | 544 | 407 | N/A |
| 2025-11-21 | 749 | 554 | 419 | N/A |
| 2025-11-14 | 737 | 549 | 417 | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | 739 | 548 | 414 | N/A |
Observation: US oil rig count stable around 410-420 through Q1 2026, down from ~550 in late 2024.
8. EIA Drilling Productivity Report -- Monthly¶
Source: Sheet EIA钻井数(月). Unit: wells. Coverage: Jan 2013 -- Feb 2026.
8A. New Wells Drilled per Month by Basin¶
| Month | DPR Total | Anadarko | Appalachia | Bakken | Eagle Ford | Haynesville | Niobrara | Permian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | N/A | 74 | 60 | 105 | 50 | N/A | N/A | 423 |
| Jan 2026 | N/A | 72 | 60 | 103 | 44 | N/A | N/A | 425 |
| Dec 2025 | N/A | 72 | 61 | 105 | 45 | N/A | N/A | 427 |
| Nov 2025 | N/A | 69 | 61 | 107 | 42 | N/A | N/A | 431 |
| Oct 2025 | N/A | 68 | 62 | 113 | 42 | N/A | N/A | 428 |
| Sep 2025 | N/A | 69 | 59 | 106 | 42 | N/A | N/A | 429 |
| Aug 2025 | N/A | 67 | 62 | 101 | 41 | N/A | N/A | 430 |
| Jul 2025 | N/A | 65 | 63 | 102 | 38 | N/A | N/A | 438 |
| Jun 2025 | N/A | 67 | 63 | 99 | 36 | N/A | N/A | 452 |
| May 2025 | N/A | 67 | 66 | 105 | 34 | N/A | N/A | 462 |
| Apr 2025 | N/A | 69 | 65 | 107 | 32 | N/A | N/A | 468 |
| Mar 2025 | N/A | 65 | 66 | 107 | 30 | N/A | N/A | 475 |
| Feb 2025 | N/A | 64 | 66 | 106 | 31 | N/A | N/A | 477 |
| Jan 2025 | N/A | 63 | 70 | 101 | 30 | N/A | N/A | 471 |
| Dec 2024 | N/A | 63 | 73 | 103 | 31 | N/A | N/A | 471 |
| Nov 2024 | N/A | 65 | 71 | 103 | 31 | N/A | N/A | 468 |
8B. Completions per Month by Basin¶
| Month | DPR Total | Anadarko | Appalachia | Bakken | Eagle Ford | Haynesville | Niobrara | Permian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | N/A | 74 | 72 | 97 | 48 | N/A | N/A | 448 |
| Jan 2026 | N/A | 73 | 71 | 95 | 45 | N/A | N/A | 450 |
| Dec 2025 | N/A | 78 | 74 | 102 | 48 | N/A | N/A | 467 |
| Nov 2025 | N/A | 82 | 69 | 102 | 65 | N/A | N/A | 512 |
| Oct 2025 | N/A | 92 | 79 | 105 | 46 | N/A | N/A | 460 |
| Sep 2025 | N/A | 68 | 77 | 110 | 57 | N/A | N/A | 475 |
| Aug 2025 | N/A | 71 | 72 | 75 | 58 | N/A | N/A | 515 |
8C. Drilled but Uncompleted Wells (DUC Inventory)¶
| Month | Appalachia | Bakken | Eagle Ford | Haynesville | Permian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 694 | 247 | 368 | 607 | 814 |
| Jan 2026 | 694 | 259 | 360 | 605 | 839 |
| Dec 2025 | 695 | 270 | 351 | 606 | 864 |
| Nov 2025 | 701 | 282 | 348 | 609 | 904 |
| Oct 2025 | 714 | 290 | 342 | 632 | 984 |
| Sep 2025 | 738 | 306 | 334 | 636 | 1,016 |
| Aug 2025 | 738 | 323 | 338 | 651 | 1,062 |
| Jul 2025 | 742 | 335 | 312 | 668 | 1,146 |
| Jun 2025 | 756 | 344 | 319 | 685 | 1,123 |
| May 2025 | 784 | 361 | 336 | 695 | 1,132 |
| Apr 2025 | 780 | 358 | 355 | 713 | 1,157 |
| Mar 2025 | 788 | 364 | 375 | 718 | 1,256 |
| Feb 2025 | 816 | 372 | 408 | 733 | 1,282 |
| Jan 2025 | 813 | 330 | 401 | 723 | 1,320 |
| Dec 2024 | 797 | 299 | 429 | 724 | 1,375 |
| Nov 2024 | 791 | 294 | 417 | 717 | 1,361 |
Key trend: Permian DUC inventory declined from 1,375 (Dec 2024) to 814 (Feb 2026), down 41%. This DUC drawdown represents a significant buffer being consumed -- at some point new drilling must accelerate or production growth will stall.
9. China Crude Oil Import Data (Monthly)¶
Source: Sheet 中国原油进口数据. Unit: 10,000 tonnes (万吨). From China Customs.
9A. Monthly Totals¶
| Month | Monthly (万吨) | YTD (万吨) | YoY Cumulative % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 5,597 | 57,773 | +4.4% |
| Nov 2025 | 5,089 | 52,187 | +3.2% |
| Oct 2025 | 4,836 | 47,100 | +3.1% |
| Sep 2025 | 4,725 | 42,300 | +2.6% |
| Aug 2025 | 4,949 | 37,605 | +2.5% |
| Jul 2025 | 4,720 | 32,657 | +2.8% |
| Jun 2025 | 4,989 | 27,939 | +1.4% |
| May 2025 | 4,660 | 22,961 | +0.3% |
| Apr 2025 | 4,806 | 18,303 | +0.5% |
| Mar 2025 | 5,141 | 13,525 | -1.5% |
| Feb 2025 | 4,269 | 8,385 | -5.0% |
| Jan 2025 | 4,117 | 4,117 | -6.8% |
| Dec 2024 | 4,784 | 55,342 | -1.9% |
| Nov 2024 | 4,852 | 50,559 | -1.9% |
| Oct 2024 | 4,470 | 45,707 | -3.4% |
| Sep 2024 | 4,549 | 41,239 | -2.8% |
| Aug 2024 | 4,910 | 36,691 | -3.1% |
| Jul 2024 | 4,234 | 31,781 | -2.4% |
| Jun 2024 | 4,645 | 27,548 | -2.3% |
| May 2024 | 4,697 | 22,903 | -0.4% |
| Apr 2024 | 4,472 | 18,207 | +2.0% |
| Mar 2024 | 4,905 | 13,736 | +0.7% |
| Feb 2024 | 4,414 | 8,831 | +5.1% |
| Jan 2024 | 4,417 | 4,417 | +2.0% |
Key finding: China crude imports flipped from YoY decline (-1.9% full year 2024) to growth (+4.4% full year 2025), indicating recovering demand. Full year 2025 = 57,773 万吨 = ~577.7 million tonnes = ~11.6 million bbl/day.
9B. China Imports by Source Country (tonnes, monthly)¶
| Month | Russia | Saudi Arabia | Iraq | Brazil | Angola | Oman | Kuwait | US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 9,334,921 | 6,660,957 | 5,853,444 | 5,399,730 | 3,150,739 | 3,784,221 | 1,649,765 | N/A |
| Nov 2025 | 8,350,802 | 7,548,036 | 4,437,095 | 4,886,829 | 2,996,228 | 3,011,549 | 2,206,017 | N/A |
| Oct 2025 | 9,109,643 | 7,024,485 | 5,052,195 | 3,568,060 | 2,384,879 | 2,333,920 | 2,360,639 | N/A |
| Sep 2025 | 8,287,511 | 7,128,191 | 5,972,831 | 4,372,107 | 2,154,750 | 2,681,814 | 949,260 | N/A |
| Aug 2025 | 7,944,139 | 5,979,146 | 5,649,352 | 5,188,660 | 3,409,199 | 3,191,998 | 1,898,069 | N/A |
| Jul 2025 | 8,708,708 | 7,472,897 | 4,887,184 | 3,775,736 | 1,416,480 | 2,497,559 | 1,611,105 | N/A |
| Jun 2025 | 8,351,434 | 7,898,085 | 5,159,982 | 3,886,492 | 2,004,129 | 2,956,625 | 1,485,317 | N/A |
| May 2025 | 8,375,893 | 5,421,567 | 5,357,169 | 4,765,038 | 2,635,840 | 3,590,046 | 1,214,689 | 136,429 |
| Apr 2025 | 8,065,599 | 5,525,119 | 4,592,429 | 3,685,007 | 2,891,136 | 2,729,180 | 1,714,521 | 533,655 |
| Mar 2025 | 8,845,178 | 8,443,482 | 7,358,931 | 1,976,157 | 2,565,728 | 2,518,550 | 1,248,356 | 541,932 |
Key insight: Russia is China's #1 crude supplier at ~8-9 million tonnes/month, followed by Saudi Arabia (~6-8 million), Iraq (~4.5-7.4 million), and Brazil (~2-5.4 million). US crude exports to China have essentially ceased (near zero from Jun 2025 onward).
10. Global Oil Trade Flows (BP, thousand bbl/day)¶
10A. Daily Average Exports¶
Source: Sheet 全球石油日均出口量.
| Year | US | Canada | Mexico | C/S America | Europe | Middle East | N.Africa | W.Africa | China |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9,877 | 1,027 | 2,151 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2023 | 9,292 | 1,271 | 2,223 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2022 | 8,807 | 1,167 | 2,105 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2021 | 7,956 | 1,211 | 2,269 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2020 | 8,136 | 1,243 | 1,746 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | 8,010 | 1,245 | 2,738 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10B. Daily Average Imports¶
Source: Sheet 全球石油日均进口量.
| Year | US | Canada | C/S America | Europe | Africa | China | India | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8,429 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5,917 | 1,841 | N/A |
| 2023 | 8,556 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6,006 | 2,043 | N/A |
| 2022 | 8,343 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5,977 | 2,060 | N/A |
| 2021 | 8,475 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5,260 | 2,361 | N/A |
| 2020 | 7,866 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5,261 | 1,988 | N/A |
| 2019 | 9,141 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5,769 | 2,340 | N/A |
11. OPEC Member Drilling Wells (Annual)¶
Source: Sheet OPEC成员国钻井数. Unit: wells.
| Year | Global | OPEC | Algeria | Iran | Iraq | Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | UAE | Venezuela |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 59,452 | N/A | N/A | 2,489 | N/A | 105 | N/A | 210 | N/A |
| 2023 | 59,701 | N/A | N/A | 2,017 | N/A | 105 | N/A | 155 | N/A |
| 2022 | 60,029 | N/A | N/A | 1,753 | N/A | 105 | 38 | 149 | N/A |
| 2021 | 51,924 | N/A | N/A | 1,561 | N/A | 105 | 27 | 113 | N/A |
| 2020 | 46,305 | N/A | N/A | 1,854 | N/A | 105 | 14 | 160 | N/A |
| 2019 | 67,818 | N/A | N/A | 2,908 | N/A | 117 | 104 | 265 | N/A |
| 2018 | 72,230 | N/A | N/A | 3,061 | 157 | 195 | 32 | 277 | N/A |
| 2017 | 65,614 | N/A | N/A | 2,839 | 111 | 216 | 43 | 332 | N/A |
| 2016 | 52,086 | N/A | N/A | 3,058 | 86 | 206 | 67 | 292 | N/A |
| 2015 | 71,308 | N/A | N/A | 3,050 | 210 | 288 | 92 | 250 | N/A |
| 2014 | 101,670 | N/A | N/A | 3,364 | 327 | 306 | 87 | 215 | N/A |
12. Saudi Arabia Spare Capacity Analysis¶
Derived from production data vs. estimated nameplate capacity.
| Period | Saudi Production (kb/d) | Est. Capacity (kb/d) | Est. Spare (kb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 10,086 | ~12,500 | ~2,414 |
| Dec 2025 | 10,073 | ~12,500 | ~2,427 |
| Jun 2025 | 9,356 | ~12,500 | ~3,144 |
| Jan 2025 | 8,941 | ~12,500 | ~3,559 |
| Peak 2022 (Apr) | 10,496 | ~12,500 | ~2,004 |
| Peak 2018 (Nov) | 11,069 | ~12,500 | ~1,431 |
| 2016 avg | 10,406 | ~12,500 | ~2,094 |
Investment significance: Saudi spare capacity of ~2,400-3,500 kb/d represents the world's primary swing supply buffer. This volume can be deployed within 90 days, making it the key variable in any supply disruption scenario.
13. OECD Business Confidence Index¶
Source: Sheet OECD景气调查. Monthly, scale: 100 = neutral.
| Month | OECD | G7 | Eurozone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 100.0 | 100.0 | N/A |
| Jan 2026 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 99.6 |
| Dec 2025 | 99.6 | 99.5 | 99.4 |
| Nov 2025 | 99.5 | 99.3 | 99.3 |
14. China Crude Oil Export Data¶
Source: Sheet 中国原油出口数据. Unit: USD (export value).
| Month | Monthly Export Value (USD) | YTD Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 39,600,209 | 2,260,946,138 |
| Nov 2025 | 38,637,205 | 2,221,345,929 |
| Oct 2025 | 107,864,258 | 2,182,708,724 |
| Sep 2025 | 75,887,132 | 2,074,844,466 |
| Aug 2025 | 83,513,622 | 1,998,957,334 |
| Jul 2025 | 162,699,572 | 1,915,443,712 |
Note: China's crude oil exports are minimal compared to imports (full year 2025 exports ~$2.3B vs imports in the hundreds of billions), confirming China as an overwhelmingly net importer.
15. Global Oil Production (Annual, Million Tonnes)¶
Source: Sheet 全球石油产量. Parallel series to daily production but in mass units.
Same countries/regions as Section 1 but measured in million tonnes/year. The daily production data in kb/d (Section 1) is more commonly used for investment analysis and is the preferred reference.
16. Petroleum Products Trade (OPEC Refinery Data)¶
Source: Sheets 全球石油制品出口量, 全球石油制品进口量, 全球石油制品产量.
- Exports: 159 columns, annual, kb/d -- crude and product exports by region
- Imports: 102 columns, annual, kb/d -- crude and product imports by region
- Production: 121 columns, annual, kb/d -- refinery product output (gasoline, diesel, etc.) by OPEC member
These sheets contain granular refinery throughput and product trade data. For investment purposes, the aggregate crude trade flows in Section 10 are the primary reference.
Investment-Critical Observations¶
Supply Growth vs. Rig Activity Paradox¶
- US production: 20,135 kb/d (2024) on 589 rigs
- US production: 11,796 kb/d (2014) on 1,881 rigs
- Production per rig has roughly tripled in 10 years
OPEC Compliance Instability¶
- Compliance swings from 33% to 546% indicate the quota system is under severe stress
- Values >300% in 2022 reflect structural incapacity, not voluntary restraint
- Feb 2025 drop to 75% may signal the beginning of a price war or quota discipline collapse
DUC Inventory Depletion¶
- Permian DUC wells: 1,375 (Dec 2024) to 814 (Feb 2026) -- declining ~40 wells/month
- At this rate, DUC buffer exhausted by late 2027
- Once DUCs are depleted, US production growth becomes directly dependent on new drilling
China Import Reorientation¶
- Russia share of Chinese imports: ~16% of monthly volume (dominant supplier)
- US crude to China: essentially zero from mid-2025
- This geopolitical reorientation of trade flows affects benchmark pricing (WTI vs Brent spread)
Reserve Concentration Risk¶
- OPEC holds 79.2% of proven crude reserves (2024)
- Top 5 reserve holders (Venezuela, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait) = ~1,025,540 mn bbl = 65% of world total
- Non-OPEC reserve replacement is primarily in deep-water (Brazil), tight oil (US), and oil sands (Canada)
Data extracted programmatically from 同花顺iFinD terminal data (供应端政策与产量.xlsx, 29 sheets) on 2026-04-13. All values are as reported in the source file with no adjustments or interpolations.