OPEC World Oil Outlook 2024 -- Key Findings¶

Report Context¶

Published September 2024; outlook extended to 2050 for the first time (previously to 2045).
OPEC Reference Case plus two alternative scenarios: Technology-Driven Scenario and Equitable Growth Scenario.
Core thesis: "No peak oil demand on the horizon" -- oil demand grows continuously to 120+ mb/d by 2050.
Strongly pushes back against "phase out" narratives; emphasizes energy security, developing-world needs.

Region	2023	2050	Change
OECD	45.7	35.6	-10.1
India	5.3	13.3	+8.0
China	16.4	18.9	+2.5
Other Asia	9.3	14.5	+5.2
Middle East	8.6	13.0	+4.4
Africa	4.5	8.9	+4.4
Latin America	6.7	9.7	+3.0
Non-OECD total	56.6	84.6	+28.0

India is the single largest source of long-term demand growth (+8.0 mb/d).

Sector	Change (mb/d)
Petrochemicals	+4.9
Road transportation	+4.6
Aviation	+4.2
Residential/Commercial/Agriculture	+2.1
Other industry	+1.8
Other	+1.2
Electricity generation	-0.8

Medium-term growth led by: US (+2.3), Brazil (+1.0), Canada (+0.6), Qatar (+0.5), Argentina (+0.3), Norway (+0.2).
US supply peaks around 2030, then declines.
Long-term non-DoC growth sustained by Latin America, Canada, non-DoC Middle East.

Global refining capacity additions (medium-term): 6.3 mb/d, mostly in Asia-Pacific (3.2), Africa (1.4), Middle East (1.2).
New crude distillation capacity needed through 2050: 19.2 mb/d.
~90% of new capacity in Asia-Pacific, Africa, Middle East.
Refinery throughput: 81.8 mb/d (2023) -> 89.8 (2030) -> 93.8 (2050).
US/Canada & Europe decline post-2030; offset by developing region growth.

Global vehicle fleet: 1.7 billion (2023) -> 2.9 billion (2050).
ICE vehicles: still >70% of global fleet in 2050.
EVs gain share but obstacles remain: grid capacity, battery manufacturing, critical minerals.
Road transport oil demand stabilizes at >50 mb/d for most of the forecast period.

Achieves well-below 2C goal while maintaining energy security and avoiding economic harm to developing nations.
Oil demand stabilizes above 100 mb/d to ~2040, then moderately slows to 96 mb/d by 2050.

OPEC's core position: oil demand continues growing robustly, no peak in sight.
Oil+gas at >53% of energy mix through 2050 -- "the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact."
Middle East share of global crude exports: ~49% (2023) -> ~58% (2050).
Asia-Pacific crude imports: 24 mb/d (2023) -> 33.8 mb/d (2050).
Global crude/condensate trade: 36.5 mb/d (2023) -> 46.2 mb/d (2050).
Average GDP growth: 2.9%/yr globally (2023-2050); non-OECD at 3.7%.
Population: 8+ billion (2024) -> 9.7 billion (2050).

/teamspace/studios/this_studio/files/extracted/产业链框架数据(更迭/文本数据/研究报告/OPEC-World_Oil_Outlook年度报告/OPEC_2024_World_Oil_Outlook_report.pdf