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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports: January 2025 -- March 2026

This page tracks the evolution of OPEC's forecasts and key market data across 15 consecutive Monthly Oil Market Reports (MOMR), covering the period from January 2025 through March 2026. This is a critical dataset for understanding OPEC's analytical framework and how its outlook shifted in response to tariff shocks, geopolitical events, and changing supply/demand fundamentals.

Over the 15-month period, OPEC's outlook underwent a clear three-phase evolution:

  1. Stability (Jan--Mar 2025): Forecasts were remarkably steady. Global demand growth held at 1.4 mb/d, GDP at 3.1%/3.2%, non-DoC supply at 1.0--1.1 mb/d. OPEC saw no reason to revise.

  2. Tariff Shock and Downward Revisions (Apr--May 2025): US tariff announcements triggered the first downward revisions: GDP cut to 3.0%/3.1%, demand growth cut to 1.3 mb/d, non-DoC supply cut to 0.9 then 0.8 mb/d. Oil prices fell sharply.

  3. Stabilisation and Partial Recovery (Jun 2025--Mar 2026): Forecasts stabilised at the new lower levels. GDP was revised back up to 3.0--3.1% by Aug 2025. Demand growth held at 1.3 mb/d (2025) / 1.4 mb/d (2026). Non-DoC supply continued declining to 0.6 mb/d for 2026. Meanwhile, DoC production rose significantly (from ~40.65 mb/d in Dec 2024 to ~43.06 mb/d by Nov 2025) before easing, reflecting the phased unwinding of voluntary cuts.

Report-by-Report Detailed Extraction

January 2025 MOMR (Published 15 January 2025)

Crude Oil Prices (December 2024 data): - ORB: $73.07/b (+$0.09, +0.1% m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $73.13/b (-$0.27, -0.4%) - NYMEX WTI: $69.70/b (+$0.16, +0.2%) - GME Oman: $73.16/b (+$0.68, +0.9%) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.43/b

GDP Forecasts: - World: 3.1% (2025), 3.2% (2026) - US: 2.4% (2025, revised up), 2.3% (2026) - Eurozone: 1.0% (2025, revised slightly down), 1.1% (2026) - Japan: 1.0% (2025), 1.0% (2026) - China: 4.7% (2025), 4.6% (2026) - India: 6.5% (2025, revised up), 6.5% (2026) - Brazil: 2.3% (2025, revised up), 2.5% (2026) - Russia: 1.9% (2025, revised up), 1.5% (2026)

Oil Demand: - 2025 growth: 1.4 mb/d (unchanged). OECD +0.1 mb/d, non-OECD +1.3 mb/d - 2026 growth: 1.4 mb/d. OECD +0.1 mb/d, non-OECD +1.3 mb/d

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +1.1 mb/d (unchanged). Drivers: US, Brazil, Canada, Norway - Non-DoC 2026: +1.1 mb/d. Drivers: US, Brazil, Canada - DoC NGLs 2025: +90 tb/d to avg 8.4 mb/d; 2026: +0.1 mb/d to avg 8.5 mb/d - DoC crude production (Dec 2024): 40.65 mb/d (-14 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Nov 2024 data): - Total: 2,770 mb (-8.4 mb m-o-m), 171 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,313 mb, 137 mb below avg - Products: 1,457 mb, 34 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 60.9 days, 1.3 days below avg

Balance: Demand for DoC crude 2025: 42.5 mb/d (revised down ~0.1 mb/d); 2026: 42.7 mb/d

February 2025 MOMR (Published 12 February 2025)

Crude Oil Prices (January 2025 data): - ORB: $79.38/b (+$6.31, +8.6% m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $78.35/b (+$5.22, +7.1%) - NYMEX WTI: $75.10/b (+$5.40, +7.7%) - GME Oman: $80.22/b (+$7.14, +9.8%) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.25/b

GDP Forecasts: All unchanged from Jan 2025. World 3.1%/3.2%. Eurozone 2025 revised down slightly to 0.9%.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: +1.4 mb/d. 2026: +1.4 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +1.0 mb/d (revised down 0.1 mb/d from Jan). 2026: +1.0 mb/d - DoC NGLs 2025: +80 tb/d to avg 8.4 mb/d - DoC crude (Jan 2025): 40.62 mb/d (-118 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Dec 2024): - Total: 2,754 mb (+4.3 mb m-o-m), 172.1 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,307 mb, 120.7 mb below avg - Products: 1,447 mb, 51.4 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 61.3 days, 1.1 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.6 mb/d (+0.1 mb/d revision); 2026: 42.9 mb/d (+0.2 mb/d revision)

Key revision: Non-DoC supply 2025 cut by 0.1 mb/d (1.1 -> 1.0 mb/d).

March 2025 MOMR (Published 12 March 2025)

Crude Oil Prices (February 2025 data): - ORB: $76.81/b (-$2.57, -3.2%) - ICE Brent: $74.95/b (-$3.40, -4.3%) - NYMEX WTI: $71.21/b (-$3.89, -5.2%) - GME Oman: $77.28/b (-$2.94, -3.7%) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.74/b

GDP Forecasts: Largely unchanged. Japan 2025 revised up slightly to 1.2% (from 1.0%). All others unchanged.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: +1.4 mb/d. 2026: +1.4 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +1.0 mb/d (unchanged). 2026: +1.0 mb/d (unchanged) - DoC crude (Feb 2025): 41.01 mb/d (+363 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Jan 2025): - Total: 2,738 mb (+1.0 mb m-o-m), 188.1 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,298 mb, 132.9 mb below avg - Products: 1,440 mb, 55.2 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 60.7 days, 1.3 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand unchanged: 2025: 42.6 mb/d; 2026: 42.9 mb/d

April 2025 MOMR (Published 14 April 2025)

Crude Oil Prices (March 2025 data): - ORB: $74.00/b (-$2.81, -3.7%) - ICE Brent: $71.47/b (-$3.48, -4.6%) - NYMEX WTI: $67.94/b (-$3.27, -4.6%) - GME Oman: $72.50/b (-$4.78, -6.2%) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.53/b

GDP Forecasts -- FIRST MAJOR DOWNWARD REVISION (tariff impact): - World: 3.0% (2025, -0.1pp), 3.1% (2026, -0.1pp) - US: 2.1% (2025, -0.3pp), 2.2% (2026, -0.1pp) - Eurozone: 0.8% (2025, -0.1pp), 1.1% (2026, unch) - Japan: 1.0% (2025, -0.2pp), 0.9% (2026, -0.1pp) - China: 4.6% (2025, -0.1pp), 4.5% (2026, -0.1pp) - India: 6.3% (2025, -0.2pp), 6.5% (2026, unch) - Brazil: 2.3% (unch), 2.5% (unch) - Russia: 1.9% (unch), 1.5% (unch)

Oil Demand -- FIRST DEMAND CUT: - 2025 growth: 1.3 mb/d (revised down 0.1 mb/d). OECD +0.04 mb/d, non-OECD +1.25 mb/d - 2026 growth: ~1.3 mb/d (revised down ~0.1 mb/d). OECD +0.1 mb/d, non-OECD +1.2 mb/d

Oil Supply -- NON-DOC CUT: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.9 mb/d (revised down 0.1 mb/d). Drivers: US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina - Non-DoC 2026: ~0.9 mb/d (revised down ~0.1 mb/d) - DoC crude (Mar 2025): 41.02 mb/d (-37 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Feb 2025): - Total: 2,746 mb (-16.1 mb m-o-m), 173.5 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,322 mb, 125.9 mb below avg - Products: 1,425 mb, 47.6 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 60.9 days, 1.7 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.6 mb/d (unch); 2026: 42.8 mb/d (-0.1 mb/d)

May 2025 MOMR (Published 14 May 2025)

Crude Oil Prices (April 2025 data): - ORB: $68.98/b (-$5.02, -6.8%) - ICE Brent: $66.46/b (-$5.01, -7.0%) - NYMEX WTI: $62.96/b (-$4.98, -7.3%) - GME Oman: $67.85/b (-$4.65, -6.4%) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.50/b

GDP Forecasts -- FURTHER US CUT: - World: 2.9% (2025, -0.1pp), 3.1% (2026, unch) - US: 1.7% (2025, -0.4pp), 2.1% (2026, -0.1pp) - Eurozone: 1.0% (2025, +0.2pp on better 1Q data), 1.1% (2026, unch) - Japan: 1.0% (unch), 0.9% (unch) - China: 4.6% (unch), 4.5% (unch) - India: 6.3% (unch), 6.5% (unch)

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: +1.3 mb/d. 2026: +1.3 mb/d.

Oil Supply -- FURTHER NON-DOC CUT: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.8 mb/d (revised down ~0.1 mb/d). 2026: +0.8 mb/d (revised down ~0.1 mb/d) - DoC crude (Apr 2025): 40.92 mb/d (-106 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Mar 2025): - Total: 2,740 mb (+10.3 mb m-o-m), 173 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,323 mb, 139 mb below avg - Products: 1,417 mb, 34 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 60.3 days, 2.2 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.6 mb/d (+0.1 mb/d); 2026: 42.9 mb/d (+0.1 mb/d)

June 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (May 2025 data): - ORB: $63.62/b (-$5.36, -7.8%) - ICE Brent: $64.01/b (-$2.45, -3.7%) - NYMEX WTI: $60.94/b (-$2.02, -3.2%) - GME Oman: $63.88/b (-$3.97, -5.9%) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.07/b

GDP Forecasts: Largely unchanged. India 2025 revised up to 6.5% (+0.2pp). Russia 2025 revised down to 1.8% (-0.1pp). All others unchanged.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: +1.3 mb/d. 2026: +1.3 mb/d. - OECD 2025: +0.2 mb/d (revised up from +0.1 mb/d) - Non-OECD 2025: +1.1 mb/d (revised down from +1.2 mb/d)

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.8 mb/d (unchanged). 2026: +0.7 mb/d (revised down 0.1 mb/d) - DoC crude (May 2025): 41.23 mb/d (+180 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Apr 2025): - Total: 2,739 mb (+4.7 mb m-o-m), 188 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,344 mb, 129 mb below avg - Products: 1,395 mb, 59 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 59.7 days, 2.5 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.7 mb/d (+0.1 mb/d); 2026: 43.2 mb/d (+0.2 mb/d)

July 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (June 2025 data): - ORB: $69.73/b (+$6.11 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $69.80/b (+$5.79) - NYMEX WTI: $67.33/b (+$6.39) - GME Oman: $69.49/b (+$5.63) - Brent-WTI spread: $2.47/b

GDP Forecasts: All unchanged. World 2.9%/3.1%.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: +1.3 mb/d. 2026: +1.3 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.8 mb/d (unchanged). 2026: +0.7 mb/d (unchanged) - DoC NGLs 2025: avg 8.6 mb/d; 2026: avg 8.8 mb/d (revision upward from 8.4/8.5) - DoC crude (Jun 2025): 41.56 mb/d (+349 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (May 2025): - Total: 2,771 mb (+34.5 mb m-o-m), 184 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,358 mb, 127 mb below avg - Products: 1,413 mb, 57 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 59.8 days, 2.2 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.5 mb/d (-0.3 mb/d, due to DoC NGLs baseline revision); 2026: 42.9 mb/d (-0.3 mb/d, same reason). Growth unchanged at +0.4 mb/d.

August 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (July 2025 data): - ORB: $70.97/b (+$1.24 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $69.55/b (-$0.25) - NYMEX WTI: $67.24/b (-$0.09) - GME Oman: $71.42/b (+$1.93) - Brent-WTI spread: $2.31/b

GDP Forecasts -- PARTIAL RECOVERY: - World: 3.0% (2025, +0.1pp), 3.1% (2026, unch) - US: 1.8% (2025, +0.1pp), 2.1% (2026, unch) - Eurozone: 1.2% (2025, +0.2pp), 1.2% (2026, +0.1pp) - China: 4.8% (2025, +0.2pp), 4.5% (2026, unch) - Japan, India, Brazil, Russia: unchanged

Oil Demand: - 2025: +1.3 mb/d (unchanged) - 2026: +1.4 mb/d (revised up 0.1 mb/d from 1.3 mb/d)

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.8 mb/d (unchanged). 2026: +0.6 mb/d (revised down 0.1 mb/d) - DoC NGLs 2025: avg 8.7 mb/d; 2026: avg 8.8 mb/d - DoC crude (Jul 2025): 41.94 mb/d (+335 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Jun 2025): - Total: 2,789 mb (-3.2 mb m-o-m), 158.6 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,348 mb, 117.4 mb below avg - Products: 1,441 mb, 41.2 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 60.2 days, 1.6 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.5 mb/d (unch); 2026: 43.1 mb/d (+0.2 mb/d)

September 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (August 2025 data): - ORB: $69.73/b (-$1.24 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $67.26/b (-$2.29) - NYMEX WTI: $64.02/b (-$3.22) - GME Oman: $69.23/b (-$2.19) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.24/b

GDP Forecasts: All unchanged. World 3.0%/3.1%.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: ~1.3 mb/d. 2026: ~1.4 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.8 mb/d (unchanged). 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unchanged) - DoC NGLs 2025: avg 8.7 mb/d; 2026: avg 8.8 mb/d - DoC crude (Aug 2025): 42.40 mb/d (+509 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Jul 2025): - Total: 2,761 mb (+2.4 mb m-o-m), 208.6 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,317 mb, 144.8 mb below avg - Products: 1,444 mb, 63.7 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 59.6 days, 2.8 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.5 mb/d (unch); 2026: 43.1 mb/d (unch)

October 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (September 2025 data): - ORB: $70.39/b (+$0.66 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $67.58/b (+$0.32) - NYMEX WTI: $63.53/b (-$0.49) - GME Oman: $70.04/b (+$0.81) - Brent-WTI spread: $4.05/b

GDP Forecasts: All unchanged. World 3.0%/3.1%.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: ~1.3 mb/d. 2026: ~1.4 mb/d. OECD 2026 revised down to +0.1 mb/d (from +0.2 mb/d).

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.8 mb/d (unchanged). 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unchanged) - DoC NGLs 2025: avg 8.6 mb/d; 2026: avg 8.8 mb/d - DoC crude (Sep 2025): 43.05 mb/d (+630 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Aug 2025): - Total: 2,793 mb (-0.5 mb m-o-m), 192.0 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,316 mb, 130.9 mb below avg - Products: 1,477 mb, 61.0 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 60.2 days, 2.9 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.5 mb/d (unch); 2026: 43.1 mb/d (unch)

November 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (October 2025 data): - ORB: $65.20/b (-$5.19 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $63.95/b (-$3.63) - NYMEX WTI: $60.07/b (-$3.46) - GME Oman: $64.95/b (-$5.09) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.88/b

GDP Forecasts: Japan 2025 revised up to 1.1% (+0.1pp). Russia 2025 revised down to 1.6% (-0.2pp). All others unchanged.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: ~1.3 mb/d. 2026: ~1.4 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +0.9 mb/d (revised up ~0.1 mb/d on historical data). 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unch) - DoC crude (Oct 2025): 43.02 mb/d (-73 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Sep 2025): - Total: 2,845 mb (+6.0 mb m-o-m), 122.3 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,331 mb, 103.9 mb below avg - Products: 1,513 mb, 18.4 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 61.3 days, 1.2 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.4 mb/d (-0.1 mb/d); 2026: 43.0 mb/d (-0.1 mb/d)

December 2025 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (November 2025 data): - ORB: $64.46/b (-$0.74 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $63.66/b (-$0.29) - NYMEX WTI: $59.48/b (-$0.59) - GME Oman: $64.53/b (-$0.41) - Brent-WTI spread: $4.18/b

GDP Forecasts -- PARTIAL RECOVERY: - World: 3.1% (2025, +0.1pp), 3.1% (2026, unch) - India: 6.7% (2025, +0.2pp), 6.6% (2026, +0.1pp) - Brazil: 2026 revised down to 2.0% (-0.5pp) - Russia: 2025 revised down to 1.3% (-0.3pp), 2026 to 1.4% (-0.1pp) - US, Japan, Eurozone, China: unchanged

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2025: +1.3 mb/d. 2026: +1.4 mb/d (OECD +0.2 mb/d).

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2025: +1.0 mb/d (revised up ~0.1 mb/d for 4Q25 data). 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unch) - DoC crude (Nov 2025): 43.06 mb/d (+43 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Oct 2025): - Total: 2,833 mb (-32 mb m-o-m), 112.7 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,340 mb, 113.3 mb below avg - Products: 1,492 mb, 0.5 mb above avg - Days of forward cover: 61.8 days, 0.5 days below avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2025: 42.4 mb/d (unch); 2026: 43.0 mb/d (unch)

January 2026 MOMR

Note: Starting from this report, OPEC shifts its focus years to 2026/2027 (dropping 2025 as current year).

Crude Oil Prices (December 2025 data): - ORB: $61.74/b (-$2.72 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $61.63/b (-$2.03) - NYMEX WTI: $57.87/b (-$1.61) - GME Oman: $61.96/b (-$2.57) - Brent-WTI spread: $3.76/b

GDP Forecasts (now 2026/2027): - World: 3.1% (2026), 3.2% (2027) - US: 2.1% (2026), 2.0% (2027) - Eurozone: 1.2% (2026), ~1.2% (2027) - Japan: 0.9% (2026), ~0.9% (2027) - China: 4.5% (2026), ~4.5% (2027) - India: 6.6% (2026), 6.5% (2027) - Brazil: 2.0% (2026), 2.2% (2027) - Russia: 1.3% (2026, revised down slightly), 1.5% (2027)

Oil Demand: - 2026: +1.4 mb/d (unch). OECD +0.15 mb/d, non-OECD +1.2 mb/d - 2027: +1.3 mb/d (new). OECD +0.1 mb/d, non-OECD +1.2 mb/d

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unch). 2027: +0.6 mb/d (new). Drivers: Brazil, Canada, US, Argentina; 2027 adds Qatar - DoC NGLs 2026: avg 8.8 mb/d; 2027: avg 8.9 mb/d - DoC crude (Dec 2025): 42.83 mb/d (-238 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Nov 2025): - Total: 2,840 mb (+4.0 mb m-o-m), 101.5 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,346 mb, 104.7 mb below avg - Products: 1,494 mb, 3.2 mb above 2015--2019 avg - Days of forward cover: 62.2 days, unchanged vs. 2015--2019 avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2026: 43.0 mb/d (unch); 2027: 43.6 mb/d

February 2026 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (January 2026 data): - ORB: $62.31/b (+$0.61 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $64.73/b (+$3.10) - NYMEX WTI: $60.26/b (+$2.39) - GME Oman: $62.79/b (+$0.83) - Brent-WTI spread: $4.47/b

GDP Forecasts: US 2026 revised up slightly to 2.2% (+0.1pp). All others unchanged.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2026: +1.4 mb/d. 2027: +1.3 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unch). 2027: +0.6 mb/d (unch) - DoC crude (Jan 2026): 42.45 mb/d (-439 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Dec 2025): - Total: 2,845 mb (+6.5 mb m-o-m), 81.0 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,363 mb, 64.2 mb below avg - Products: 1,481 mb, 16.9 mb below avg - Days of forward cover: 62.8 days, 0.5 days above 2015--2019 avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2026: 43.0 mb/d (unch); 2027: 43.6 mb/d (unch)

March 2026 MOMR

Crude Oil Prices (February 2026 data): - ORB: $67.90/b (+$5.59 m-o-m) - ICE Brent: $69.37/b (+$4.64) - NYMEX WTI: $64.52/b (+$4.26) - GME Oman: $68.42/b (+$5.63) - Brent-WTI spread: $4.85/b

GDP Forecasts: All unchanged. World 3.1%/3.2%.

Oil Demand: Unchanged. 2026: +1.4 mb/d. 2027: +1.3 mb/d.

Oil Supply: - Non-DoC 2026: +0.6 mb/d (unch). 2027: +0.6 mb/d (unch) - DoC NGLs 2026: avg 8.8 mb/d; 2027: avg 8.9 mb/d - DoC crude (Feb 2026): 42.72 mb/d (+445 tb/d m-o-m)

OECD Commercial Stocks (Jan 2026): - Total: 2,824 mb (-19.9 mb m-o-m), 103.1 mb below 2015--2019 avg - Crude: 1,313 mb, 118.1 mb below avg - Products: 1,511 mb, 15.0 mb above avg - Days of forward cover: 62.0 days, in line with 2015--2019 avg

Balance: DoC crude demand 2026: 42.9 mb/d (-0.1 mb/d); 2027: 43.6 mb/d (unch)

Key Analytical Observations for Investment Decision

1. Price Trajectory

Oil prices fell substantially over this period. ORB dropped from $73.07/b (Dec 2024) to a low of $61.74/b (Dec 2025), before recovering to $67.90/b (Feb 2026). Brent followed a similar path: $73.13 -> $61.63 -> $69.37. The peak was Jan 2025 (ORB $79.38, Brent $78.35), driven by sanctions and cold weather. The trough came in late 2025, reflecting bearish speculative positioning, rising DoC supply, and trade uncertainty.

2. Demand Growth Resilience

OPEC's demand forecast proved remarkably sticky. The only cut was in April 2025 (1.4 -> 1.3 mb/d for both years), driven by tariff concerns. After that, the forecast never moved again. The 2026 forecast was actually revised back up to 1.4 mb/d in August 2025. OPEC consistently sees non-OECD (especially India and China) as the demand engine.

3. Non-DoC Supply Deceleration

This is the most significant trend in the data. Non-DoC supply growth was progressively cut: - Jan 2025: 1.1 mb/d -> Feb: 1.0 -> Apr: 0.9 -> May: 0.8 -> and for 2026: 1.1 -> 1.0 -> 0.9 -> 0.8 -> 0.7 -> 0.6 mb/d - The cumulative downward revision for 2026 non-DoC supply was 0.5 mb/d, a very large shift implying US tight oil growth is decelerating faster than initially expected.

4. DoC Production Surge

DoC crude production rose dramatically from 40.62 mb/d (Jan 2025) to 43.06 mb/d (Nov 2025), an increase of ~2.4 mb/d in 10 months, reflecting the phased unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts. Production then eased to ~42.45--42.72 mb/d in early 2026.

5. Inventory Build

OECD stocks tightened through mid-2025 (reaching as low as 2,738--2,739 mb in Jan/Apr, ~188 mb below the 2015--2019 average), then rebuilt in 2H25 as DoC supply surged. By Dec 2025, stocks were 2,845 mb, only 81 mb below the 2015--2019 average. The deficit to the 5-year average essentially closed by year-end, signalling a more comfortable supply cushion.

6. Brent-WTI Spread Widening

The Brent-WTI spread widened from $3.25--3.74/b in early 2025 to $4.05--4.85/b by late 2025/early 2026, reflecting rising Atlantic basin supply relative to demand and logistical constraints.