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IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO-2025)

Publisher: International Energy Agency (IEA) Publication date: November 2025 (modified March 2026) Report length: 519 pages Authors: Laura Cozzi (Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks), Tim Gould (Chief Energy Economist), with teams led by Stephanie Bouckaert, Christophe McGlade, Brent Wanner

1. Scenario Framework

WEO-2025 uses three main scenarios plus an energy access scenario. None are forecasts.

Scenario Abbreviation Nature Description
Current Policies Scenario CPS Exploratory Only measures formally written into legislation/regulation. Cautious on new tech deployment.
Stated Policies Scenario STEPS Exploratory Broader policy reading including tabled-but-not-adopted policies and strategy documents. Does NOT assume aspirational targets are met.
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 NZE Normative Pathway to net zero energy-related CO2 by 2050. Updated from prior editions.
Accelerating Clean Cooking & Electricity Services ACCESS Normative New scenario for universal energy access (electricity by 2035, clean cooking by 2040).

Note: WEO-2025 does NOT include the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). Assessment of new NDCs deferred until more complete picture available.

2. Oil Demand Projections -- Key Quantitative Data

2.1 Global Oil Demand by Scenario

Metric 2024 (Actual) 2030 2035 2050
CPS (mb/d) 100 ~103 (growing) 105 113
STEPS (mb/d) 100 ~102 (PEAK) ~100 (back to 2024 level) 97
NZE (mb/d) 100 Declining rapidly Sharply lower Much lower
  • CPS: Oil demand rises by ~0.5 mb/d per year on average, reaching 105 mb/d in 2035 and 113 mb/d in 2050.
  • STEPS: Oil demand peaks at ~102 mb/d around 2030, then gradually declines. By 2035 it returns to ~100 mb/d. After 2035, it falls ~0.2 mb/d per year on average, reaching 97 mb/d by 2050.
  • NZE: Rapid decline driven by full-scale energy transition. OPEC+ share of oil supply rises to ~55% by 2035 as production concentrates in low-cost suppliers.

2.2 Difference Between CPS and STEPS in 2035

  • Oil demand is 5 mb/d higher in the CPS than in the STEPS in 2035.
  • 40% of this difference is attributable to slower EV adoption in the CPS.
  • Oil prices are ~10% higher in CPS than STEPS in 2035.

2.3 Oil Demand by Sector (STEPS)

Largest increases to 2035: - Petrochemical feedstock: +3.3 mb/d - Aviation: +2.2 mb/d

Largest declines to 2035: - Passenger cars: -2.6 mb/d (displacement by EVs) - Buildings sector: -1.3 mb/d

CPS specifics: - Aviation: oil use increases from 7 mb/d (2024) to over 9 mb/d (2035); exceeds 10 mb/d by 2050 - Shipping: oil demand at 5 mb/d (2024), increases ~3% to 2035 - Rail: oil demand reaches 0.6 mb/d by 2035 - Passenger cars (CPS): oil demand declines >1 mb/d to 2035 globally (despite fleet growth)

2.4 Oil Demand by Region

STEPS

Region 2024 (mb/d) Change to 2035 Notes
China 16 Peaks before 2030, falls to ~15 mb/d by 2035 50% of car sales already electric; 90% by 2035
India 5.5 +2 mb/d (largest increase of any country) Continues rising to 2050
Africa ~4.5 +1.2 mb/d Road transport dominant growth driver
Southeast Asia - +1 mb/d Net oil imports rise from 3.3 to 4.7 mb/d
Advanced economies - -5.3 mb/d EU: -30%; N. America: -6%

CPS

Region 2024 (mb/d) 2035 (mb/d) Notes
India 5.5 8.0 Nearly half of additional global barrels to 2035 head to India
China 16.2 15.8 Slight decline; EV uptake + petrochemicals offset
Africa ~4.5 ~6.0 +33% growth
Middle East ~8.5 ~9.5 Petrochemical feedstock growth; -1 mb/d from power sector
Advanced economies - -3.5 mb/d decline

3. Oil Supply Projections

3.1 STEPS Oil Supply

Oil supply peaks around 2030 and returns to 2024 levels in 2035. - OPEC+ share: remains ~50% to 2035, rises to 53% by 2050 - ~20 mb/d of new supply from yet-to-be-approved projects needed by 2035

Key producing countries (STEPS, change 2024-2035):

Country 2024 (mb/d) Change to 2035 Notes
Saudi Arabia - Largest increase; half of Middle East growth Jafurah unconventional, legacy supergiant fields
Guyana 0.6 +1.2 mb/d Stabroek block development
Brazil 3.5 +1.0 mb/d Pre-salt ultra-deepwater
Argentina - Rises to 1.4 mb/d Vaca Muerta tight oil
Canada 6.1 +0.8 mb/d Pipeline expansions, NGL volumes
United States 21 +0.5 (to 21.5 mb/d) Remains world's largest producer to 2050
Qatar - ~+1.0 mb/d NGLs from North Field
UAE 4.0 +0.5 mb/d Legacy field expansion, NGL capture
Russia ~11 -1.0 mb/d Sanctions, profitability challenges, Vostok Oil delayed
Norway 2.0 -40% Ageing fields
Mexico 2.0 -0.8 mb/d Declining despite new projects
China 5.0 -0.7 mb/d Maturing resource base
Nigeria 1.6 -0.3 mb/d
Iran 4.7 Contracts marginally to 4.5
Venezuela 0.9 -0.3 to 0.6 mb/d Lowest-ever sustained output
Europe (total) 3.8 -1.4 mb/d

Middle East total: +2 mb/d to 2035 (NGL output up >2.5 mb/d)

3.2 CPS Oil Supply

  • ~25 mb/d of new projects needed to 2035 (vs 20 in STEPS)
  • Non-OPEC+ supply rises by 4 mb/d to 2035 (three-quarters of global increase)
  • OPEC+ supply: 50 mb/d (2024) to 51 mb/d (2035) to 63 mb/d (2050) -- 15% higher (8 mb/d) than any historical level
  • US tight oil: rises ~1.4 mb/d to 2035; could rise an additional 2.5 mb/d at highest investment levels (to ~13 mb/d)
  • Saudi Arabia: conventional crude output approaches 12 mb/d capacity by mid-2040s, exceeds 13 mb/d by 2050
  • Iraq: marginal growth to 4.6 mb/d by 2035
  • UAE: +0.6 mb/d to 4.8 mb/d by 2035
  • Annual real revenues for OPEC+ from oil production rise from 2024 levels

3.3 Natural Decline Rates

  • Production from existing oil fields declines at 8% per year if no investment is made.
  • Bulk of oil investment is needed NOT for demand growth but to offset existing field declines.
  • In the NZE Scenario, upstream investment is directed toward maintaining output of existing fields, as their natural decline rates would exceed the rate of decline of fossil fuel demand.

3.4 US Tight Oil

  • US tight oil production reached 9 mb/d in 2024 (grew +0.5 mb/d/year average since 2015).
  • Tight oil wells have steep decline profiles; continuous drilling essential.
  • CPS: oil price rises to ~USD 90/barrel in 2035, US tight oil rises +1.4 mb/d.
  • Upside scenario: tight oil could reach ~13 mb/d in 2035 at highest investment levels.
  • US Energy Information Administration indicates 220 billion barrels of resources remaining.

4. Oil Price Assumptions

Scenario 2024 2035 2050
CPS $79/bbl $89/bbl $106/bbl
STEPS $79/bbl $80/bbl $76/bbl
NZE $79/bbl $33/bbl $25/bbl

All prices in USD (2024, MER). IEA crude oil price is a weighted average reference.

5. Refining Outlook

STEPS

  • Demand for refined products peaks before 2030 at 86 mb/d (~0.7 mb/d above 2024), falls to 85 mb/d by 2035.
  • Peak demand for vehicle gasoline and diesel reached in the next few years.
  • Petrochemical feedstock demand: +3.3 mb/d to 2035 (>50% met by non-refined fuels).
  • 6 mb/d of new refining capacity comes online to 2035; offset by 5 mb/d closures.
  • New capacity mainly in Asia (China, India) and Middle East.
  • Closures concentrated in Europe and United States (ageing facilities, higher operating costs).
  • India emerged since 2022 as global swing refiner (processing Russian crude diverted from Europe).

CPS

  • ~9 mb/d of new refining capacity, ~5 mb/d closures = net +4 mb/d increase.
  • Asia sees net +3 mb/d.

6. Electric Vehicle Impact on Oil

EV Sales Share Projections

Metric 2024/2025 2030 2035
Global EV share of new car sales (CPS) ~25% (2025) Rising ~40%
Global EV share of new car sales (STEPS) ~25% (2025) Doubles from today >50%
  • 2024 global electric car sales: >17 million (25% year-on-year growth); expected >20 million in 2025.
  • China alone: >14 million EVs expected in 2025.
  • By 2035 in STEPS: >840 million EVs on the road, displacing 10 mb/d of oil (mainly in Asia and Europe).
  • Battery prices fell ~75% between 2015 and 2024.
  • In China, two-thirds of electric cars already cheaper to buy than conventional equivalents.
  • 2025 STEPS projects 60% fewer EVs on US roads in 2035 vs 2024 STEPS (policy changes).
  • 2025 STEPS projects ~20% more EVs in EMDE outside China vs 2024 STEPS.

CPS EV trajectory

  • EV sales share broadly plateaus after 2035 at ~40%.
  • China >50% of global electric car sales in 2035; Europe another 30%.
  • EV deployment subdued elsewhere; sales shares remain near current levels.

7. Energy Transition & Demand Drivers

7.1 Electricity Demand

  • Global electricity demand grows ~40% to 2035 in both CPS and STEPS (to ~37,800 TWh).
  • Electricity's share of total final consumption: 21% (2024) to ~25% (2035).
  • Data centre investment: USD 580 billion in 2025 (surpasses USD 540 billion for global oil supply).
  • Data centre electricity consumption doubles by 2030 (but <10% of global electricity demand growth).
  • Renewables share of electricity: ~33% (2024), nearly 55% by 2035 (STEPS).

7.2 Energy Demand Growth

  • CPS: total energy demand rises 90 EJ (+15%) by 2035.
  • STEPS: rises ~50 EJ (+8%) by 2035.
  • NZE: total energy demand declines by 2035.
  • Total energy demand 2024: 654 EJ.

7.3 Role of Road Transport

  • Road transport accounts for ~45% of global oil demand.
  • 1.4 billion cars on the road today; ~80 million new cars sold annually.
  • Emerging market and developing economy car fleet: from ~0.7 billion to 1.3 billion by 2050 (CPS).
  • SUVs: ~30% of global car fleet, ~50% of new car sales; use ~15% more fuel than average medium car.

7.4 Aviation

  • Aviation activity up >35% in past decade; increases further 50% to 2035 (CPS).
  • Oil share of aviation fuel: >95% in 2035 (STEPS), >99% in 2024.
  • Sustainable aviation fuel share: ~5% in 2035, 10% by 2050 (STEPS).

7.5 China Rail Impact

  • China's non-urban rail expansion has avoided nearly 1.5 mb/d of oil demand in 2024 -- more than the oil saved by EVs worldwide.
  • Between 2015 and 2024, non-urban rail in China cumulatively avoided almost 12 mb/d of oil demand and over 1.6 Gt CO2.
  • China high-speed rail: >40,000 km today (nearly 3x rest of world combined).

8. Investment Requirements

8.1 Total Energy Investment

Period/Scenario Annual Investment
2024 actual USD 3.2 trillion
2025 projected USD 3.3 trillion
2035 STEPS ~USD 3.6 trillion
2035 CPS ~5% lower than STEPS
NZE average 2025-2035 USD 4.8 trillion/year
NZE in 2035 USD 5.6 trillion (~70% above current, >50% above STEPS)

8.2 Oil & Gas Upstream Investment

  • CPS: oil & gas upstream investment ~USD 100 billion/year MORE than recent average is needed.
  • STEPS: upstream oil & gas investment needs broadly in line with recent average spending.
  • NZE: fossil fuel supply investment falls to average <USD 350 billion/year by 2035 (from ~USD 1 trillion/year recently). Falls 90% by 2050.
  • 2025: global oil supply investment projected at ~USD 540 billion.

8.3 STEPS vs CPS Investment Differences (2035)

  • CPS: investment in fossil fuels is nearly USD 150 billion higher than STEPS.
  • STEPS: investment in solar PV and wind is ~USD 80 billion higher than CPS.
  • Renewables investment in CPS (2035): just over USD 500 billion (below STEPS at USD 600 billion).
  • Nuclear investment: USD 100 billion/year (STEPS), USD 90 billion/year (CPS).
  • Grids: ~USD 730 billion (STEPS) vs ~USD 715 billion (CPS).

8.4 Power Sector Investment (NZE)

  • Annual global power sector investment reaches >USD 2.5 trillion by 2035 (nearly double today).
  • Renewables: nearly USD 1.3 trillion/year average 2025-2035.
  • Grids and storage: USD 800 billion/year (2025-2035).
  • Nuclear: USD 150 billion/year.
  • Electrification: >USD 900 billion/year (tripling from current).
  • Buildings efficiency alone: ~USD 600 billion/year.

8.5 Emerging Market Investment

  • Cost of capital for power generation in EMDE is >2x higher than in advanced economies.
  • In Africa, energy investment today is ~one-third below levels of ten years ago.
  • NZE: international public finance of ~USD 120 billion/year needed to mobilise private capital in EMDE.
  • Every dollar of international public finance today mobilises only USD 0.60 of private capital; target: 5-7x leverage.

9. CO2 Emissions Outlook

Scenario 2024 2035 2050 Temperature by 2100
CPS 38 Gt 39 Gt (plateaus) ~39 Gt ~2.9 C
STEPS 38 Gt ~35 Gt <30 Gt (last seen 2005) ~2.5 C
NZE 38.2 Gt 17.6 Gt Net zero Peak ~1.65 C around 2050, returns <1.5 C by 2100
  • Overshoot of 1.5 C is now inevitable in all scenarios (exceeded on regular basis by ~2030).
  • Scenarios diverge only after 2035 for temperature outcomes.
  • 2024 was the hottest year on record; first year exceeding 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.

10. Natural Gas Key Numbers

Metric 2024 CPS 2035 STEPS 2035
Global gas demand (bcm) 4,250 ~5,000 ~4,750-4,800
LNG demand (bcm) ~560 - -
LNG nameplate capacity (bcm) 665 - -
New LNG capacity under construction (to 2030) 290 bcm nameplate - -
Available LNG export capacity 2030 - - 830 bcm
LNG surplus in 2030 (STEPS) - - 65 bcm
  • STEPS 2025: natural gas demand 350 bcm higher in 2035 than WEO-2024 version.
  • STEPS: gas demand grows ~1%/year to 2035, then plateaus.
  • CPS: gas demand grows at 1.3%/year; LNG volumes expand 60% to 880 bcm.
  • STEPS: gas prices ~30-40% lower than CPS in 2035.

11. Oil Trade Flows (STEPS)

  • 60% of global net oil trade flows to Asian EMDE by 2035 (from <60% in 2024); >75% by 2050.
  • China: Largest net importer to 2050 (>25% of global trade); imports fall 1 mb/d to 2035.
  • India: Imports rise 50% to ~7 mb/d by 2035 (strong demand hub).
  • Southeast Asia: Imports rise 1.5 mb/d to 2035.
  • Middle East: Dominant net exporter (almost 3x next largest); exports rise 1.5 mb/d to 2035.
  • North America: Exports increase >2 mb/d to 2035 (Mexico becomes net importer).
  • Russia/Caspian: Export volumes decline ~20% to 2035.
  • Africa: Becomes net oil importer in aggregate.
  • Fossil fuel import bill for Asian EMDE: rises 40% in CPS to USD 1.2 trillion by 2035.

12. Comparisons with Other Outlooks

IEA 2050 projections compared with other organizations:

Organization Oil 2050 (mb/d) Position
OPEC Highest range >110
EIA High range >110
ExxonMobil High range ~105-110
IEEJ High range ~105
IEA CPS 113 Upper mid
IEA STEPS 97 Mid
TotalEnergies Mid ~95-100
Shell Lower mid ~90-95
BP Lower ~85-90
Equinor Lower ~80-85

13. Critical Minerals

  • A single country (China) is the dominant refiner for 19 out of 20 energy-related strategic minerals, with an average market share of ~70%.
  • As of November 2025, >50% of strategic minerals subject to some form of export controls.
  • Copper supply: potential 30% shortfall by 2035 (current project pipelines).
  • NZE: copper demand ~25% higher than STEPS in 2035; lithium 70% higher; nickel/cobalt/graphite 30-50% higher.
  • Geographic concentration in refining increased for nearly all key energy minerals since 2020.

14. Energy Access (ACCESS Scenario)

  • 730 million people without electricity (2024); 80% in sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Nearly 2 billion without clean cooking access.
  • ACCESS: universal electricity by 2035 (80 million gain access/year); universal clean cooking by ~2040.
  • LPG underpins 63% of new cooking access, increasing residential cooking use to ~3.4 mb/d by 2040.
  • ACCESS investment: ~USD 250 billion by 2035 for electricity; ~USD 4 billion/year for clean cooking.

15. Key Changes from WEO-2024

  • US renewables capacity in 2035: 30% lower than WEO-2024 STEPS (policy changes).
  • US EVs on road in 2035: 60% fewer than WEO-2024 STEPS.
  • EVs in EMDE outside China: ~20% more than WEO-2024 STEPS.
  • Electricity generation 2035: ~4% higher globally (more data centres, air conditioning).
  • Natural gas consumption 2035: 350 bcm higher (75% for electricity generation).
  • Coal demand 2035: 10% or 440 Mtce higher (mainly China and US power generation).
  • Nuclear demand 2035: 4% higher.
  • Renewables demand 2035: 3% lower.

16. Key Takeaways for Crude Oil Investment Decisions

  1. Oil demand peaks around 2030 in the STEPS at ~102 mb/d -- the central IEA scenario. Under CPS, demand continues growing to 113 mb/d by 2050.

  2. Decline rates from existing fields (8%/year without investment) mean substantial ongoing upstream investment is required regardless of scenario -- 20-25 mb/d of new projects needed to 2035.

  3. The Americas are the supply growth engine: US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Argentina collectively drive non-OPEC+ supply expansion. The US remains the world's largest producer to 2050.

  4. China's oil demand is peaking (the main driver of global oil demand growth since 2015). India takes over as the primary demand growth center (+2 mb/d in STEPS, +2.5 mb/d in CPS to 2035).

  5. Petrochemicals and aviation are the resilient demand segments -- together adding 5.5 mb/d to 2035 in the STEPS. Road transport oil demand declines as EVs displace 10 mb/d by 2035.

  6. Oil prices remain moderate: STEPS sees prices around current levels ($80/bbl) to 2035; CPS sees $89/bbl. Only the NZE sees dramatic price collapse ($33/bbl by 2035).

  7. Refining faces structural transformation: Peak refined product demand before 2030; shift toward integrated refining-petrochemical complexes; closures in US/Europe; growth in Asia/Middle East.

  8. Geopolitical risk premium remains: OPEC+ maintains ~50% market share; Russia production declining; sanctions on multiple producers; critical mineral supply concentration adds new dimension to energy security.

  9. The EV trajectory is the single largest variable for oil demand. CPS vs STEPS EV adoption explains 40% of the oil demand divergence between scenarios.

  10. Data centre investment ($580B in 2025) now exceeds oil supply investment ($540B) -- a structural marker of the transition to the Age of Electricity.