CCB Futures Historical Crude Oil Price Timeline¶
Source: CCB Futures (建信期货) Daily Crude Oil Reports Archive: ~863 reports, 2021-01-22 to 2026-03-18 Method: Stratified sample of ~36 reports at key market turning points
This page covers Jan 2021 through Oct 2025, where the existing 60-day daily price data (in daily-price-history.md) begins.
Price at Key Market Turning Points¶
| Date | WTI Close | Brent Close | SC Close (CNY) | Event / Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-22 | 52.96 | 55.69 | 340.0 | Post-COVID recovery begins; Saudi extra 1mb/d cut; vaccine rollout starting |
| 2021-03-15 | 65.91 | 69.62 | 418.8 | OPEC demand upgrade; Saudi extends cuts; vaccine acceleration; demand recovery |
| 2021-07-01 | 73.44 | 74.67 | 459.0 | OPEC+ meeting imminent; Iran nuclear deal uncertainty; US demand recovering |
| 2021-10-09 | 78.85 | 82.48 | 528.1 | OPEC+ holds 400kb/d pace; shale capex discipline; nat gas substitution; $80 breached |
| 2021-12-10 | 72.65 | 75.93 | 477.7 | Omicron variant scare; pullback from Oct highs; OPEC ready to adjust; Q1 surplus expected |
| 2022-02-23 | 92.83 | 97.35 | 596.9 | Eve of Russia/Ukraine invasion; Western sanctions feared; geopolitical premium surging |
| 2022-03-01 | 91.94 | 94.56 | 621.2 | Post-invasion; SWIFT sanctions on Russia; Urals discount at record; supply disruption begins |
| 2022-03-08 | 115.00 | 118.05 | 761.4 | US considers Russia oil ban; Brent approaches $120; Iran deal speculation; extreme volatility |
| 2022-03-11 | 109.53 | 112.51 | 700.3 | Brent touched $131.64 intraday before crashing >12%; Ukraine signals compromise; OPEC increase calls |
| 2022-03-24 | 108.75 | 110.93 | 699.0 | EU considers Russia oil embargo; IEA warns 3mb/d Russian supply loss; OPEC capacity tight |
| 2022-06-09 | 119.77 | 121.00 | 758.0 | Oil price peak zone; EU Russia sanctions finalized; Iran deal unlikely; global supply tight |
| 2022-07-05 | 108.46 | 111.48 | 716.9 | Pullback from peak; OPEC production misses targets; Biden to visit Saudi; recession fears emerge |
| 2022-09-27 | 79.43 | 85.54 | 610.3 | Steep decline; Fed aggressive 75bp hikes; strong USD; demand destruction fears; Russia mobilization |
| 2022-12-06 | 80.34 | 85.42 | 558.6 | EU $60 Russia price cap takes effect; OPEC holds 2mb/d cut; China reopening anticipated |
| 2023-01-10 | 73.73 | 78.60 | 526.3 | Start of 2023; Fed hawkish; OPEC production ticking up; China reopening watch; SPR releases end |
| 2023-03-14 | 76.68 | 82.64 | 552.6 | SVB banking crisis; Fed hike expectations collapse; EIA upgrades Russia supply; China demand upgrade |
| 2023-04-04 | 75.70 | 79.93 | 569.7 | OPEC+ surprise 1.65mb/d voluntary cut; Saudi-led; floors Brent ~$75; market rebalances |
| 2023-06-13 | 70.35 | 75.04 | 514.5 | Mid-year range; Saudi extra 1mb/d July cut; Iran/Russia still exporting above expectations |
| 2023-09-19 | 91.20 | 94.27 | 704.7 | $90+ rally; Saudi/Russia cuts tighten market; Fed pause expected; refining margins strong |
| 2023-10-28 | 83.50 | 88.16 | 670.0 | Post Israel-Hamas war; geopolitical risk premium fading; Venezuela sanctions eased |
| 2023-12-12 | 71.26 | 75.65 | 556.1 | Year-end decline; OPEC cut compliance weak; US inventory builds; WTI contango forming |
| 2024-01-16 | 72.88 | 78.32 | 555.6 | Start of 2024; Red Sea/Houthi attacks; limited actual oil disruption; Q1 expected to build |
| 2024-03-05 | 79.81 | 83.46 | 619.0 | OPEC+ extends voluntary cuts to June; compliance concerns (Iraq); Libya supply resumes |
| 2024-04-16 | 84.86 | 90.15 | 663.5 | Iran drone/missile strike on Israel; geopolitical premium fades as US discourages escalation |
| 2024-06-04 | 77.18 | 81.37 | 595.8 | OPEC+ plans Q4 supply increase; US summer demand season; refining margins soft; range-bound |
| 2024-08-06 | 84.14 | 77.56 | 546.9 | US recession scare; unemployment spikes; Asian markets crash; WTI drops below $73 intraday |
| 2024-10-09 | 77.29 | 81.14 | 543.5 | China stimulus hopes; Saudi defending price via cuts; Middle East tensions (Iran-Israel); demand tepid |
| 2024-11-26 | 71.18 | 74.73 | 539.1 | OPEC+ may delay Dec increase; Trump 2.0 Iran sanctions expected; US demand softening |
| 2025-01-07 | 74.07 | 76.69 | 577.0 | Start of 2025; US cold snap; EIA data bullish; new Russia shipping sanctions; Saudi raises OSPs |
| 2025-03-05 | 68.47 | 71.49 | 521.3 | OPEC+ announces Apr increase; Saudi yields to US pressure; Russia sanctions may ease; Brent near $70 |
| 2025-04-08 | 62.32 | 66.06 | 542.0 | US "reciprocal tariffs" shock; Brent -5.8%; OPEC+ accelerates May increase to 411kb/d; 4-year lows |
| 2025-04-15 | 60.90 | 64.59 | 473.9 | Tariff pause on some countries; EIA cuts demand outlook; Goldman sees oil decline through 2026 |
| 2025-06-06 | 62.74 | 64.91 | 463.7 | Saudi pushes for more output; actual OPEC+ increase below target; US summer demand starting; trade war overhang |
| 2025-07-02 | 64.97 | 66.63 | 499.4 | OPEC+ first month of expanded output; Trump pressures lower prices; H2 cumulative inventory build expected |
| 2025-09-02 | 64.01 | 67.46 | 483.5 | US summer demand disappointing; refinery runs declining; oil market range-bound near lows |
| 2025-10-28 | 61.44 | 64.92 | 468.9 | US re-sanctions Russian oil majors (Rosneft, Lukoil); EU follows; SC relatively supported; pre-existing data zone |
Price Range Summary by Period¶
| Period | WTI Range | Brent Range | SC Range (CNY) | Key Theme |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2021 | 53-66 | 56-70 | 340-419 | Post-COVID recovery; vaccines; Saudi voluntary cuts |
| Q2-Q3 2021 | 60-76 | 63-78 | 410-460 | OPEC+ gradual reopening; demand recovery; Iran nuclear talks |
| Q4 2021 | 67-85 | 72-86 | 460-550 | Energy crisis; nat gas substitution; $80 breached; Omicron pullback |
| Q1 2022 | 77-124 | 80-131 | 540-776 | Russia/Ukraine invasion; sanctions; Brent peak $131.64 intraday (Mar 8) |
| Q2 2022 | 95-123 | 99-124 | 660-758 | Sustained >$100; EU Russia embargo; SPR releases; tight global supply |
| Q3 2022 | 77-105 | 84-111 | 610-717 | Price correction; Fed rate hikes; recession fears; strong USD |
| Q4 2022 | 72-93 | 80-99 | 555-660 | EU price cap; OPEC 2mb/d cut; China COVID reopening speculation |
| Q1 2023 | 67-81 | 72-86 | 510-570 | Banking crisis (SVB); Russia supply higher than expected; China reopening |
| Q2 2023 | 67-75 | 72-79 | 502-570 | OPEC+ voluntary cuts (1.65mb/d); Iran/Russia still exporting; range-bound |
| Q3 2023 | 70-94 | 74-97 | 530-710 | $90+ rally; Saudi/Russia cuts tighten; Fed pause; refining strong |
| Q4 2023 | 69-85 | 73-90 | 540-670 | Israel-Hamas war; geo premium fades; year-end selloff; contango returns |
| Q1 2024 | 71-83 | 77-87 | 555-626 | Red Sea disruptions (limited impact); OPEC+ extends cuts; range-bound |
| Q2 2024 | 73-86 | 77-91 | 590-680 | Iran-Israel tensions; OPEC+ plans Q4 increase; summer demand weak |
| Q3 2024 | 65-84 | 70-81 | 480-570 | US recession scare (Aug); unemployment spike; demand disappoints |
| Q4 2024 | 66-77 | 70-81 | 510-545 | OPEC+ delays increases; Trump election (Iran sanctions expected); range low |
| Q1 2025 | 65-76 | 68-79 | 510-580 | Cold snap rally then collapse; OPEC+ announces April increase; Brent tests $70 |
| Q2 2025 | 56-68 | 59-72 | 430-545 | Tariff shock (Apr 2-9); 4-year lows; OPEC+ accelerates increases; Goldman bearish through 2026 |
| Q3 2025 | 60-67 | 63-70 | 465-505 | Summer demand disappoints globally; cumulative inventory builds; range-bound near lows |
| Oct 2025 | 60-64 | 63-67 | 460-475 | Russia re-sanctioned (Rosneft/Lukoil); transition to existing 60-day data coverage |
Major Price Milestones¶
| Milestone | Date | WTI | Brent | SC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-COVID recovery floor | 2021-01-22 | 52.96 | 55.69 | 340 |
| $80 first breached (Brent) | ~2021-10-09 | 78.85 | 82.48 | 528 |
| $100 first breached (Brent) | ~2022-02-28 | ~91 | ~97+ | ~600+ |
| All-time high (intraday) | 2022-03-08 | 116.02 | 118.98 | 761.4 |
| Brent intraday spike | 2022-03-11 | 126.84 | 131.64 | 775.8 |
| Peak zone sustained | 2022-06-09 | 119.77 | 121.00 | 758.0 |
| Back below $80 (WTI) | ~2022-09-27 | 79.43 | 85.54 | 610 |
| 2023 low point | ~2023-06-13 | 70.35 | 75.04 | 515 |
| 2023 high (Q3 rally) | ~2023-09-19 | 91.20 | 94.27 | 705 |
| 2024 high (Iran tensions) | ~2024-04-16 | 84.86 | 90.15 | 664 |
| 2024 low (recession scare) | ~2024-08-06 | ~73 (intra) | 77.56 | 547 |
| Tariff shock low | 2025-04-08 | 62.32 | 66.06 | 542 |
| Sub-$60 WTI zone | 2025-04-15 | 60.90 | 64.59 | 474 |
| Pre-existing-data close | 2025-10-28 | 61.44 | 64.92 | 469 |
Analyst Commentary Themes (Translated Highlights)¶
2021: Recovery with Caution¶
- Jan 2021: "Global crude market expected to continue destocking through all four quarters; Saudi extra 1mb/d cut supports; COVID vaccine progress uncertain."
- Mar 2021: "OPEC monthly report sharply upgrades H2 demand; US shale capex constrained; Europe reopening accelerating."
- Oct 2021: "OPEC+ maintains 400kb/d increase pace; shale producers prioritize shareholder returns over growth; natural gas substitution supports Q4 draw."
- Dec 2021: "Omicron variant impact may be less severe than feared; Q1 oversupply expected; medium-term bearish bias."
2022: War, Spike, and Correction¶
- Feb 23: "Western sanctions feared on Russian energy sector; Urals crude discount at record lows; geopolitical premium surging."
- Mar 1: "Russia banks removed from SWIFT; Urals spot discount at historic low; market acceptance of Russian crude dropping sharply."
- Mar 8: "US considers Russian oil import ban; oil opens with another surge. Iran nuclear deal may be close but uncertain."
- Mar 11: "Brent touched $131.64 before crashing >12% in single session. Ukraine signals willingness to compromise; UAE calls for OPEC increase."
- Jun 9: "EU finalizes Russia sanctions; Iran deal unlikely; OPEC+ production capacity tight; supply remains structurally short."
- Sep 27: "Fed 75bp hike; CME pricing 70% chance of another 75bp in Nov; aggressive tightening pressures demand outlook."
- Dec 6: "EU $60 Russia price cap takes effect; Russia refuses to sell to price-cap participants; OPEC holds steady; China reopening watch."
2023: Cuts, Banks, and Range-Bound¶
- Jan 10: "Fed hawkish, no 2023 rate cuts expected; Russia supply proving resilient; China reopening cautiously optimistic."
- Mar 14: "SVB collapse; market expectation of 50bp March hike collapses to near zero; EIA sharply raises Russia supply forecast (+800kb/d cumulative)."
- Apr 4: "OPEC+ surprise voluntary cut of 1.65mb/d far exceeds expectations; Saudi angered by US SPR refusal; floors Brent ~$75."
- Sep 19: "Saudi/Russia cuts executing well; refining margins strong; $90+ reached; Fed expected to pause."
- Oct 28: "Israel-Hamas conflict dominates; neither party is a major producer; US eases Venezuela sanctions for heavy crude."
- Dec 12: "US builds SPR by 3mb (small); OPEC cut compliance weak; US crude/gasoline builds fastest since COVID."
2024: Geopolitics Without Follow-Through¶
- Jan 16: "Red Sea/Houthi attacks; limited actual oil disruption; US seeks to prevent escalation."
- Apr 16: "Iran strikes Israel with drones/missiles; geopolitical premium fades as US discourages retaliation; Goldman sees limited further upside."
- Jun 4: "OPEC+ to begin Q4 supply increases; demand season underwhelming; refining margins soft."
- Aug 6: "US unemployment data shocks markets; Asian equities crash; recession trade hits oil. OPEC+ may return to cuts if needed."
- Nov 26: "OPEC+ likely to delay December increase; Saudi defends oil price; Trump expected to tighten Iran sanctions."
2025: Tariff Shock and Structural Decline¶
- Jan 7: "US cold snap lifts prices briefly; new sanctions on Russian shipping; Saudi raises selling prices."
- Mar 5: "OPEC+ announces April production increase, surprising markets given weak prices. Saudi yields to US diplomatic pressure; Russia sanctions may ease under Trump. Brent nears $70."
- Apr 8: "US 'reciprocal tariffs' far exceed expectations; OPEC+8 announces expanded May increase of 411kb/d; recession fears + supply increase = 4-year lows. May replicate Q3 2024 pattern."
- Apr 15: "Tariff pause on some countries; EIA slashes demand outlook; Goldman predicts oil decline through 2026."
- Jun 6: "Saudi pushes for more output to reclaim market share; actual OPEC+ increase below announced levels; trade war overhang persists."
- Jul 2: "First month of expanded OPEC+ output largely delivered; Trump keeps pressure for lower prices; H2 inventory build expected."
- Sep 2: "US summer gasoline demand disappointing despite lower prices; refinery runs declining seasonally."
- Oct 28: "Trump re-sanctions Russian oil majors (Rosneft, Lukoil); EU follows; SC supported on potential Middle East supply diversion."
Data Notes¶
- All prices are front-month futures settlement (close) prices
- WTI and Brent in USD/barrel; SC (Shanghai Crude, INE) in CNY/barrel
- Dates are report dates (reflecting prior trading day close in most cases)
- Volume data format changed from "5-day change%" (2021) to "volume in 万手" (mid-2021 onward)
- Some reports show WTI/Brent close column header as 收盘 but report the previous session's settlement
- This timeline connects to the existing 60-day daily data starting 2025-11-06 in
daily-price-history.md - The ~863-file archive spans 2021-01-22 to 2026-03-18; this page samples 36 key dates through Oct 2025