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Downstream Refining & Product Sales Data Source

File 1: 炼油产能与工艺技术.xlsx (Refining Capacity & Process Technology)

Provider: OPEC, iFinD (同花顺) Updated: 2026-02-12

Sheet 1: 全球炼厂开工率 (Global Refinery Utilization Rates)

Monthly data, 2000-10 to 2026-01. Unit: %. Source: OPEC.

Month US France Germany Italy UK Europe 16
2026-01 92.52 88.59 102.15 71.55 85.25 86.01
2025-12 94.67 90.73 103.04 72.83 86.18 87.22
2025-11 93.40 90.10 97.48 69.00 83.66 84.42
2025-10 88.10 89.32 94.62 68.67 87.25 82.32
2025-09 93.20 88.54 97.95 70.26 85.02 85.07
2025-08 95.40 89.75 93.11 76.27 84.43 86.76
2025-07 94.38 92.71 92.47 62.22 88.91 83.15
2025-06 95.60 81.76 98.71 65.14 96.89 82.43
2025-05 94.30 64.21 98.59 64.43 97.57 82.60
2025-04 90.80 74.84 103.37 64.98 85.34 81.58
2025-03 87.06 79.33 84.38 65.64 68.11 78.91
2025-02 85.58 78.98 96.22 70.93 72.97 84.67

Trend notes: - US utilization dipped to 85.58% in Feb 2025, recovered to 92.52% by Jan 2026 - Germany consistently runs above 100% (nameplate capacity revised or co-processing) - Italy consistently the weakest at 62-77%, signaling structural overcapacity - France had sharp dip to 64.21% in May 2025 (likely maintenance/strike) - Europe 16 average stable at 82-87% range

Sheet 2: 全球石油炼厂产能 (Global Refinery Daily Capacity)

Annual data. Unit: thousand barrels/day (千桶/天).

Year World OECD Non-OECD US China India Russia Japan Korea Saudi Iran Mid East Asia-Pacific
2024 104,523 43,536 60,987 18,416 18,514 5,172 6,781 2,955 3,363 3,289 2,460 11,719 37,690
2023 103,370 43,654 59,715 18,429 18,428 5,085 6,781 3,069 3,363 3,289 2,454 11,412 37,397
2022 101,322 43,471 57,851 18,061 17,259 5,045 6,781 3,164 3,363 3,224 2,430 10,675 36,274

Key findings: - China's refining capacity: 18,514 kb/d in 2024, surpassing the US (18,416 kb/d) for the first time - China share of global capacity: 17.71% (2024), up from 17.04% (2022) - Global capacity grew 3.2% from 2022 to 2024 (+3,201 kb/d) - Non-OECD now dominates at 58.3% of global capacity - Japan declining: 2,955 in 2024 vs 3,164 in 2022 (-6.6%)

Sheet 3: 全球石油炼厂日均产量 (Global Refinery Daily Production)

Annual data through 2020. Unit: thousand barrels/day.

Year World OECD Non-OECD US EU
2020 75,024 33,343 41,681 14,212 9,070
2019 82,755 38,390 44,365 16,563 10,449
2018 82,967 38,766 44,201 16,969 10,627

Note: 2020 saw massive COVID-era cuts: -9.3% globally, US -14.2%, EU -13.2%.

Sheet 4: 全球石油炼化能力 (Global Refining Capability)

Annual data through 2020. Unit: thousand barrels/day.

Year World Total Americas Europe Middle East Asia
2020 101,251 19,660 13,328 8,965 --
2019 101,970 20,459 13,393 8,700 --
2018 100,475 20,751 12,966 8,575 --

Sheet 5: 全球石油储产比 (Global Oil Reserves-to-Production Ratio)

Annual data through 2016. Unit: years.

Year World North America S&C America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific
2016 50.6 28.83 84.73 25.16 9.28 -- --
2015 50.74 29.72 86.84 24.91 10.10 -- --

Sheet 6: OPEC成员国石油炼化能力 (OPEC Member Refining Capability)

Annual data through 2020. Unit: thousand barrels/day.

Year OPEC Total Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq UAE Nigeria
2020 11,931 2,201 399 242 245 375
2019 11,635 2,201 399 242 245 375
2018 11,518 2,141 399 242 245 375

File 2: 成品油供需与价格机制.xlsx (Product Supply-Demand & Pricing Mechanism)

Provider: 同花顺iFinD, National Bureau of Statistics Updated: 2026-01 to 2026-03 (varies by indicator)

Sheet: 原油及成品油供需平衡(月) (Crude & Product Supply-Demand Balance - Monthly)

99 indicators covering China's crude oil and refined product supply-demand balance. Data from 2004-12 to 2025-12.

Most Recent Data: December 2025

Crude Oil (万吨 = 10,000 tonnes): | Indicator | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | |-----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | Crude imports | 5,597.26 | 5,089.06 | 4,835.73 | 4,725.18 | | Crude exports | 7.95 | 7.95 | 17.21 | 14.84 | | Net crude imports | 5,589.31 | 5,081.11 | 4,818.52 | 4,710.34 | | Apparent consumption | 7,368.81 | 6,843.81 | 6,619.02 | 6,487.84 | | Import dependency (%) | 75.96 | 74.36 | 73.06 | 72.83 | | Self-sufficiency (%) | 24.15 | 25.76 | 27.20 | 27.40 | | External dependency (%) | 75.85 | 74.24 | 72.80 | 72.60 |

2025 Annual Totals: - Crude imports: 57,820.45 万吨 (578.2 million tonnes) - Crude exports: 428 万吨 - Net crude imports: 57,392.47 万吨 - Apparent consumption: 78,997.17 万吨 - Import dependency: 73.19% (cumulative) - External dependency: 72.65% (cumulative)

Refined Products (万吨): | Indicator | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | |-----------|----------|----------|----------| | Gasoline apparent consumption | 1,227.07 | 1,185.22 | 1,270.70 | | Diesel apparent consumption | 1,728.28 | 1,682.56 | 1,698.25 | | Kerosene apparent consumption | 227.50 | 227.50 | 347.10 | | Fuel oil apparent consumption | 339.40 | 331.20 | 319.90 | | Products self-sufficiency (%) | 109.34 | 111.19 | 109.70 | | Products external dependency (%) | -9.34 | -11.19 | -9.70 |

Critical finding: China is a net exporter of refined products (negative external dependency ~-9-11%). Key net export figures for 2025: - Gasoline net exports: 802.36 万吨 (cumulative) - Diesel net exports: 642.72 万吨 (cumulative) - Kerosene net exports: 2,140 万吨 (cumulative) -- massive aviation fuel surplus - Fuel oil: self-sufficient at 100%

2025 Full-Year Product Apparent Consumption: - Gasoline: 14,660.24 万吨 - Diesel: 19,316.68 万吨 - Kerosene (jet fuel): 3,753.70 万吨 - Fuel oil: 4,192.80 万吨

Sheet: 国内成品油价格 (Domestic Product Prices)

35 indicators. Daily frequency. Multiple units (元/吨, 美元/桶, 元/升).

Most Recent Prices (2026-03-24): | Product | Price | Unit | |---------|-------|------| | Gasoline ex-factory (incl. tax) | 9,880 | 元/吨 | | Diesel ex-factory (incl. tax) | 8,810 | 元/吨 | | 92# gasoline wholesale | 10,694 | 元/吨 | | 0# diesel wholesale | 9,090 | 元/吨 |

Retail prices (per liter, various provinces): - 92# gasoline: 8.02-9.12 元/升 (varies by province) - 0# diesel: 8.24-8.31 元/升

Sheet: 中国石化经营数据 (Sinopec Operating Data)

236 indicators, quarterly. Most recent: 2025-12 (full year).

Sinopec FY2025 Key Figures: | Indicator | FY2025 | 9M2025 | 1H2025 | 1Q2025 | |-----------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | Oil & gas equivalent production (million bbl) | 525.28 | 394.48 | 262.81 | 130.97 | | Crude oil production (million bbl) | 250.87 | 211.17 | 140.04 | 69.53 | | - Domestic crude | 227.29 | 191.27 | 126.73 | 62.81 | | - Overseas crude | 23.58 | 19.90 | 13.31 | 6.72 | | Natural gas (bcf) | 1,140.56 | 1,099.31 | 736.28 | 368.43 | | Gasoline+diesel+kerosene output (million tonnes) | 148.96 | 111.08 | 71.39 | 37.19 | | Gasoline output (million tonnes) | 62.61 | 47.19 | 30.79 | 16.18 | | Reserve replacement ratio: crude (%) | 90.83 | -- | -- | -- | | Reserve replacement ratio: gas (%) | 113.94 | -- | -- | -- | | Reserves-to-production: gas (years) | 8.79 | -- | -- | -- |

Sheet: 中石油经营数据 (PetroChina Operating Data)

62 indicators, quarterly/annual.

PetroChina Key Figures: | Indicator | 9M2025 | 1H2025 | 1Q2025 | FY2024 | |-----------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | Oil & gas equivalent (million boe) | 1,377.2 | 828.9 | 467.0 | 1,797.4 | | Crude production (million bbl) | 714.3 | 476.4 | 240.2 | 941.8 | | Crude proved reserves (million bbl) | -- | -- | -- | 6,183 | | Gas proved reserves (bcf) | -- | -- | -- | 72,814.1 | | Discounted future net cash (元) | -- | -- | -- | 1,517,590 |

Sheet: 中海洋经营数据 (CNOOC Operating Data)

144 indicators, annual/quarterly.

CNOOC FY2024: | Indicator | FY2024 | |-----------|--------| | Daily net production: liquid oil (bbl/day) | 1,520,405 | | - China | 1,028,497 | | - Bohai | 615,527 | | - South China Sea West | 94,804 | | - South China Sea East | 310,713 | | - Overseas | 491,907 |

Sheet: 国际原油现货均价 (International Crude Spot Average Prices)

Annual data. Unit: USD/barrel.

Year Dubai Brent Nigeria Forcados WTI Settlement Price
2024 79.61 80.76 81.75 75.87 80.76
2023 82.09 82.64 83.60 78.88 82.64
2022 96.38 101.32 101.40 94.58 101.32
2021 68.91 70.91 69.76 68.10 70.91
2020 42.41 41.84 42.31 39.25 41.84
2019 63.71 64.21 64.95 57.03 64.21

Trend: Prices normalized from 2022 spike; 2024 Brent at $80.76 vs $101.32 in 2022 (-20.3%).

Sheet: 全球石油消费量 (Global Oil Consumption)

Annual. Unit: million tonnes of oil equivalent.

Year World US EU Japan India
2024 -- -- -- -- --
2023 -- -- -- -- --

(Note: Data for most recent years stored in higher column indices - see daily consumption below for recent figures)

Sheet: 全球石油日均消费量 (Global Daily Oil Consumption)

Annual. Unit: thousand barrels/day.

Year World OECD Non-OECD EU US
2024 101,418 44,760 56,658 10,661 18,995
2023 100,694 44,708 55,986 10,590 19,014
2022 98,297 44,890 53,407 10,841 18,862
2021 95,314 43,908 51,406 10,518 18,785

Trend: Global consumption rising steadily, reaching 101.4 million bbl/day in 2024. Non-OECD share: 55.9% and growing.


Anomalies & Red Flags

  1. Germany >100% utilization: Consistently above 100% (94-103%), likely reflecting co-processing or reporting methodology differences vs nameplate capacity
  2. Italy structural weakness: Utilization persistently at 62-77%, well below European peers - signals possible closures ahead
  3. China surpassed US in refining capacity: 18,514 kb/d vs 18,416 kb/d in 2024 - first time China exceeded the US
  4. China is a net refined product exporter: External dependency negative at -9.34% for products; massive kerosene surplus (2,140 万吨 net export)
  5. France May 2025 plunge: 64.21% utilization -- likely strike or major turnaround
  6. China crude import dependency rising: 75.96% in Dec 2025, up from 72.60% in Sep 2025