Downstream Refining & Product Sales Data Source¶
File 1: 炼油产能与工艺技术.xlsx (Refining Capacity & Process Technology)¶
Provider: OPEC, iFinD (同花顺) Updated: 2026-02-12
Sheet 1: 全球炼厂开工率 (Global Refinery Utilization Rates)¶
Monthly data, 2000-10 to 2026-01. Unit: %. Source: OPEC.
| Month | US | France | Germany | Italy | UK | Europe 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 92.52 | 88.59 | 102.15 | 71.55 | 85.25 | 86.01 |
| 2025-12 | 94.67 | 90.73 | 103.04 | 72.83 | 86.18 | 87.22 |
| 2025-11 | 93.40 | 90.10 | 97.48 | 69.00 | 83.66 | 84.42 |
| 2025-10 | 88.10 | 89.32 | 94.62 | 68.67 | 87.25 | 82.32 |
| 2025-09 | 93.20 | 88.54 | 97.95 | 70.26 | 85.02 | 85.07 |
| 2025-08 | 95.40 | 89.75 | 93.11 | 76.27 | 84.43 | 86.76 |
| 2025-07 | 94.38 | 92.71 | 92.47 | 62.22 | 88.91 | 83.15 |
| 2025-06 | 95.60 | 81.76 | 98.71 | 65.14 | 96.89 | 82.43 |
| 2025-05 | 94.30 | 64.21 | 98.59 | 64.43 | 97.57 | 82.60 |
| 2025-04 | 90.80 | 74.84 | 103.37 | 64.98 | 85.34 | 81.58 |
| 2025-03 | 87.06 | 79.33 | 84.38 | 65.64 | 68.11 | 78.91 |
| 2025-02 | 85.58 | 78.98 | 96.22 | 70.93 | 72.97 | 84.67 |
Trend notes: - US utilization dipped to 85.58% in Feb 2025, recovered to 92.52% by Jan 2026 - Germany consistently runs above 100% (nameplate capacity revised or co-processing) - Italy consistently the weakest at 62-77%, signaling structural overcapacity - France had sharp dip to 64.21% in May 2025 (likely maintenance/strike) - Europe 16 average stable at 82-87% range
Sheet 2: 全球石油炼厂产能 (Global Refinery Daily Capacity)¶
Annual data. Unit: thousand barrels/day (千桶/天).
| Year | World | OECD | Non-OECD | US | China | India | Russia | Japan | Korea | Saudi | Iran | Mid East | Asia-Pacific |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 104,523 | 43,536 | 60,987 | 18,416 | 18,514 | 5,172 | 6,781 | 2,955 | 3,363 | 3,289 | 2,460 | 11,719 | 37,690 |
| 2023 | 103,370 | 43,654 | 59,715 | 18,429 | 18,428 | 5,085 | 6,781 | 3,069 | 3,363 | 3,289 | 2,454 | 11,412 | 37,397 |
| 2022 | 101,322 | 43,471 | 57,851 | 18,061 | 17,259 | 5,045 | 6,781 | 3,164 | 3,363 | 3,224 | 2,430 | 10,675 | 36,274 |
Key findings: - China's refining capacity: 18,514 kb/d in 2024, surpassing the US (18,416 kb/d) for the first time - China share of global capacity: 17.71% (2024), up from 17.04% (2022) - Global capacity grew 3.2% from 2022 to 2024 (+3,201 kb/d) - Non-OECD now dominates at 58.3% of global capacity - Japan declining: 2,955 in 2024 vs 3,164 in 2022 (-6.6%)
Sheet 3: 全球石油炼厂日均产量 (Global Refinery Daily Production)¶
Annual data through 2020. Unit: thousand barrels/day.
| Year | World | OECD | Non-OECD | US | EU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 75,024 | 33,343 | 41,681 | 14,212 | 9,070 |
| 2019 | 82,755 | 38,390 | 44,365 | 16,563 | 10,449 |
| 2018 | 82,967 | 38,766 | 44,201 | 16,969 | 10,627 |
Note: 2020 saw massive COVID-era cuts: -9.3% globally, US -14.2%, EU -13.2%.
Sheet 4: 全球石油炼化能力 (Global Refining Capability)¶
Annual data through 2020. Unit: thousand barrels/day.
| Year | World Total | Americas | Europe | Middle East | Asia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 101,251 | 19,660 | 13,328 | 8,965 | -- |
| 2019 | 101,970 | 20,459 | 13,393 | 8,700 | -- |
| 2018 | 100,475 | 20,751 | 12,966 | 8,575 | -- |
Sheet 5: 全球石油储产比 (Global Oil Reserves-to-Production Ratio)¶
Annual data through 2016. Unit: years.
| Year | World | North America | S&C America | Europe & Eurasia | Middle East | Africa | Asia-Pacific |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 50.6 | 28.83 | 84.73 | 25.16 | 9.28 | -- | -- |
| 2015 | 50.74 | 29.72 | 86.84 | 24.91 | 10.10 | -- | -- |
Sheet 6: OPEC成员国石油炼化能力 (OPEC Member Refining Capability)¶
Annual data through 2020. Unit: thousand barrels/day.
| Year | OPEC Total | Saudi Arabia | Iran | Iraq | UAE | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 11,931 | 2,201 | 399 | 242 | 245 | 375 |
| 2019 | 11,635 | 2,201 | 399 | 242 | 245 | 375 |
| 2018 | 11,518 | 2,141 | 399 | 242 | 245 | 375 |
File 2: 成品油供需与价格机制.xlsx (Product Supply-Demand & Pricing Mechanism)¶
Provider: 同花顺iFinD, National Bureau of Statistics Updated: 2026-01 to 2026-03 (varies by indicator)
Sheet: 原油及成品油供需平衡(月) (Crude & Product Supply-Demand Balance - Monthly)¶
99 indicators covering China's crude oil and refined product supply-demand balance. Data from 2004-12 to 2025-12.
Most Recent Data: December 2025¶
Crude Oil (万吨 = 10,000 tonnes): | Indicator | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | |-----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | Crude imports | 5,597.26 | 5,089.06 | 4,835.73 | 4,725.18 | | Crude exports | 7.95 | 7.95 | 17.21 | 14.84 | | Net crude imports | 5,589.31 | 5,081.11 | 4,818.52 | 4,710.34 | | Apparent consumption | 7,368.81 | 6,843.81 | 6,619.02 | 6,487.84 | | Import dependency (%) | 75.96 | 74.36 | 73.06 | 72.83 | | Self-sufficiency (%) | 24.15 | 25.76 | 27.20 | 27.40 | | External dependency (%) | 75.85 | 74.24 | 72.80 | 72.60 |
2025 Annual Totals: - Crude imports: 57,820.45 万吨 (578.2 million tonnes) - Crude exports: 428 万吨 - Net crude imports: 57,392.47 万吨 - Apparent consumption: 78,997.17 万吨 - Import dependency: 73.19% (cumulative) - External dependency: 72.65% (cumulative)
Refined Products (万吨): | Indicator | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | |-----------|----------|----------|----------| | Gasoline apparent consumption | 1,227.07 | 1,185.22 | 1,270.70 | | Diesel apparent consumption | 1,728.28 | 1,682.56 | 1,698.25 | | Kerosene apparent consumption | 227.50 | 227.50 | 347.10 | | Fuel oil apparent consumption | 339.40 | 331.20 | 319.90 | | Products self-sufficiency (%) | 109.34 | 111.19 | 109.70 | | Products external dependency (%) | -9.34 | -11.19 | -9.70 |
Critical finding: China is a net exporter of refined products (negative external dependency ~-9-11%). Key net export figures for 2025: - Gasoline net exports: 802.36 万吨 (cumulative) - Diesel net exports: 642.72 万吨 (cumulative) - Kerosene net exports: 2,140 万吨 (cumulative) -- massive aviation fuel surplus - Fuel oil: self-sufficient at 100%
2025 Full-Year Product Apparent Consumption: - Gasoline: 14,660.24 万吨 - Diesel: 19,316.68 万吨 - Kerosene (jet fuel): 3,753.70 万吨 - Fuel oil: 4,192.80 万吨
Sheet: 国内成品油价格 (Domestic Product Prices)¶
35 indicators. Daily frequency. Multiple units (元/吨, 美元/桶, 元/升).
Most Recent Prices (2026-03-24): | Product | Price | Unit | |---------|-------|------| | Gasoline ex-factory (incl. tax) | 9,880 | 元/吨 | | Diesel ex-factory (incl. tax) | 8,810 | 元/吨 | | 92# gasoline wholesale | 10,694 | 元/吨 | | 0# diesel wholesale | 9,090 | 元/吨 |
Retail prices (per liter, various provinces): - 92# gasoline: 8.02-9.12 元/升 (varies by province) - 0# diesel: 8.24-8.31 元/升
Sheet: 中国石化经营数据 (Sinopec Operating Data)¶
236 indicators, quarterly. Most recent: 2025-12 (full year).
Sinopec FY2025 Key Figures: | Indicator | FY2025 | 9M2025 | 1H2025 | 1Q2025 | |-----------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | Oil & gas equivalent production (million bbl) | 525.28 | 394.48 | 262.81 | 130.97 | | Crude oil production (million bbl) | 250.87 | 211.17 | 140.04 | 69.53 | | - Domestic crude | 227.29 | 191.27 | 126.73 | 62.81 | | - Overseas crude | 23.58 | 19.90 | 13.31 | 6.72 | | Natural gas (bcf) | 1,140.56 | 1,099.31 | 736.28 | 368.43 | | Gasoline+diesel+kerosene output (million tonnes) | 148.96 | 111.08 | 71.39 | 37.19 | | Gasoline output (million tonnes) | 62.61 | 47.19 | 30.79 | 16.18 | | Reserve replacement ratio: crude (%) | 90.83 | -- | -- | -- | | Reserve replacement ratio: gas (%) | 113.94 | -- | -- | -- | | Reserves-to-production: gas (years) | 8.79 | -- | -- | -- |
Sheet: 中石油经营数据 (PetroChina Operating Data)¶
62 indicators, quarterly/annual.
PetroChina Key Figures: | Indicator | 9M2025 | 1H2025 | 1Q2025 | FY2024 | |-----------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | Oil & gas equivalent (million boe) | 1,377.2 | 828.9 | 467.0 | 1,797.4 | | Crude production (million bbl) | 714.3 | 476.4 | 240.2 | 941.8 | | Crude proved reserves (million bbl) | -- | -- | -- | 6,183 | | Gas proved reserves (bcf) | -- | -- | -- | 72,814.1 | | Discounted future net cash (元) | -- | -- | -- | 1,517,590 |
Sheet: 中海洋经营数据 (CNOOC Operating Data)¶
144 indicators, annual/quarterly.
CNOOC FY2024: | Indicator | FY2024 | |-----------|--------| | Daily net production: liquid oil (bbl/day) | 1,520,405 | | - China | 1,028,497 | | - Bohai | 615,527 | | - South China Sea West | 94,804 | | - South China Sea East | 310,713 | | - Overseas | 491,907 |
Sheet: 国际原油现货均价 (International Crude Spot Average Prices)¶
Annual data. Unit: USD/barrel.
| Year | Dubai | Brent | Nigeria Forcados | WTI | Settlement Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 79.61 | 80.76 | 81.75 | 75.87 | 80.76 |
| 2023 | 82.09 | 82.64 | 83.60 | 78.88 | 82.64 |
| 2022 | 96.38 | 101.32 | 101.40 | 94.58 | 101.32 |
| 2021 | 68.91 | 70.91 | 69.76 | 68.10 | 70.91 |
| 2020 | 42.41 | 41.84 | 42.31 | 39.25 | 41.84 |
| 2019 | 63.71 | 64.21 | 64.95 | 57.03 | 64.21 |
Trend: Prices normalized from 2022 spike; 2024 Brent at $80.76 vs $101.32 in 2022 (-20.3%).
Sheet: 全球石油消费量 (Global Oil Consumption)¶
Annual. Unit: million tonnes of oil equivalent.
| Year | World | US | EU | Japan | India |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
(Note: Data for most recent years stored in higher column indices - see daily consumption below for recent figures)
Sheet: 全球石油日均消费量 (Global Daily Oil Consumption)¶
Annual. Unit: thousand barrels/day.
| Year | World | OECD | Non-OECD | EU | US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 101,418 | 44,760 | 56,658 | 10,661 | 18,995 |
| 2023 | 100,694 | 44,708 | 55,986 | 10,590 | 19,014 |
| 2022 | 98,297 | 44,890 | 53,407 | 10,841 | 18,862 |
| 2021 | 95,314 | 43,908 | 51,406 | 10,518 | 18,785 |
Trend: Global consumption rising steadily, reaching 101.4 million bbl/day in 2024. Non-OECD share: 55.9% and growing.
Anomalies & Red Flags¶
- Germany >100% utilization: Consistently above 100% (94-103%), likely reflecting co-processing or reporting methodology differences vs nameplate capacity
- Italy structural weakness: Utilization persistently at 62-77%, well below European peers - signals possible closures ahead
- China surpassed US in refining capacity: 18,514 kb/d vs 18,416 kb/d in 2024 - first time China exceeded the US
- China is a net refined product exporter: External dependency negative at -9.34% for products; massive kerosene surplus (2,140 万吨 net export)
- France May 2025 plunge: 64.21% utilization -- likely strike or major turnaround
- China crude import dependency rising: 75.96% in Dec 2025, up from 72.60% in Sep 2025