OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025 (WOO 2025)¶
Publication: World Oil Outlook 2025 -- 2050 Publisher: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC Secretariat) Date: July 2025 (launched at 9th OPEC International Seminar, Vienna) ISBN: 978-3-9505790-0-0 Secretary General: HE Haitham Al Ghais Pages: 328
Executive Summary -- Headline Findings¶
OPEC's core thesis: "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon." Oil demand reaches 122.9 mb/d by 2050, up from 103.7 mb/d in 2024 (+19.2 mb/d). Global oil industry investment requirements are $18.2 trillion through 2050. The combined share of oil and gas stays above 50% of primary energy mix through 2050.
Key policy context: OPEC emphasises the need for an "all-encompassing" approach -- no single fuel can be dismissed. The narrative of swiftly phasing out oil and gas is described as "unworkable, and a fantasy." Energy policies across major economies are undergoing "significant recalibration" with growing pushback against ambitious transition timelines.
1. Key Macro Assumptions¶
1.1 Demographics¶
| Metric | 2024 | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| World population (bn) | 8.2 | 9.7 | +1.5 bn |
| Working-age population (bn) | 5.3 | 6.1 | +805 mn |
| Global urbanization rate | 58% | 68% | +10 pp |
| Urban population (bn) | 4.7 | 6.6 | +1.9 bn |
Regional working-age population changes 2024-2050 (mn): - Africa: +692 - Other Asia: +183 - India: +144 - Middle East: +74 - OECD Americas: +18 - China: -239 - OECD Europe: -47 - OECD Asia-Pacific: -27 - Russia: -13
1.2 Economic Growth¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| World GDP 2024 | $171 trillion (2021 PPP) |
| World GDP 2050 | $358 trillion (2021 PPP) |
| GDP growth (doubling) | >100% over outlook period |
| Global average income 2024 | ~$21,000 |
| Global average income 2050 | ~$37,100 |
Medium-term GDP growth rates (avg 2024-2030, % p.a.):
| Region | Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| India | 6.4% |
| China | 4.4% |
| Other Asia | 4.2% |
| Non-OECD total | 4.1% |
| Africa | 3.4% |
| World | 3.1% |
| Middle East | 3.0% |
| Latin America | 2.6% |
| Other Europe | 2.1% |
| OECD Americas | 2.0% |
| OECD total | 1.7% |
| Russia | 1.5% |
| OECD Europe | 1.5% |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 1.3% |
Long-term GDP growth rates -- see Table 1.6 in report for detailed projections beyond 2030.
2. Global Primary Energy Demand¶
2.1 Total Energy Demand: 308 to 378 mboe/d (+23%)¶
Table: World primary energy demand by fuel, 2024-2050 (mboe/d)
| Fuel | 2024 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2024-2050 | Share 2024 | Share 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 94.3 | 103.0 | 107.4 | 109.5 | 111.0 | 112.4 | +18.2 | 30.6% | 29.8% |
| Coal | 81.8 | 77.5 | 71.5 | 64.8 | 58.0 | 51.4 | -30.4 | 26.5% | 13.6% |
| Gas | 70.0 | 76.1 | 80.7 | 84.6 | 87.6 | 89.7 | +19.7 | 22.7% | 23.7% |
| Nuclear | 14.9 | 16.9 | 18.8 | 20.8 | 22.9 | 24.9 | +10.0 | 4.8% | 6.6% |
| Renewables | 47.4 | 59.0 | 69.5 | 79.6 | 89.3 | 99.4 | +52.0 | 15.4% | 26.3% |
| -- Hydro | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 11.6 | +3.8 | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| -- Biomass | 29.0 | 31.3 | 33.2 | 34.8 | 35.8 | 36.6 | +7.7 | 9.4% | 9.7% |
| -- Other renewables (solar & wind) | 10.6 | 19.1 | 27.1 | 34.9 | 42.8 | 51.1 | +40.5 | 3.5% | 13.5% |
| Total | 308.4 | 332.6 | 347.9 | 359.3 | 369.0 | 377.8 | +69.4 | 100% | 100% |
2.2 OECD Energy Demand (mboe/d)¶
| Fuel | 2024 | 2050 | Growth | Share 2024 | Share 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 39.1 | 31.1 | -7.9 | 36.7% | 29.2% |
| Coal | 12.6 | 4.9 | -7.8 | 11.9% | 4.5% |
| Gas | 30.2 | 29.0 | -1.2 | 28.4% | 27.2% |
| Nuclear | 9.8 | 11.9 | +2.1 | 9.2% | 11.2% |
| Renewables | 14.8 | 29.9 | +15.1 | 13.9% | 28.0% |
| -- Other renewables | 5.2 | 17.0 | +11.9 | 4.8% | 15.9% |
| OECD Total | 106.5 | 106.8 | +0.3 | - | - |
2.3 Non-OECD Energy Demand (mboe/d)¶
| Fuel | 2024 | 2050 | Growth | Share 2024 | Share 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 55.2 | 81.3 | +26.1 | 27.3% | 30.0% |
| Coal | 69.2 | 46.5 | -22.7 | 34.3% | 17.2% |
| Gas | 39.8 | 60.7 | +20.9 | 19.7% | 22.4% |
| Nuclear | 5.2 | 13.0 | +7.8 | 2.6% | 4.8% |
| Renewables | 32.6 | 69.5 | +36.9 | 16.1% | 25.6% |
| -- Other renewables | 5.5 | 34.1 | +28.6 | 2.7% | 12.6% |
| Non-OECD Total | 201.9 | 271.0 | +69.0 | - | - |
2.4 Electricity¶
- Total electricity generation: 31,500 TWh (2024) to 57,500 TWh (2050), +80%
- 75% of growth from developing countries; ~60% from developing Asia alone
- Other renewables (solar/wind): 4,900 TWh (2024) to 26,000 TWh (2050)
- Share of non-fossil fuels in power generation: 42% (2024) to 67.5% (2050)
- Record 600 GW of renewable capacity installed in 2024 (up from 475 GW in 2023)
- Data centres and AI contributing significantly to electricity demand growth (>4% in 2024)
3. Oil Demand -- Reference Case¶
3.1 Global Oil Demand: 103.7 to 122.9 mb/d¶
Medium-term: 103.7 mb/d (2024) to 113.3 mb/d (2030): +9.6 mb/d Long-term: 103.7 mb/d (2024) to 122.9 mb/d (2050): +19.2 mb/d
Table: Long-term oil demand by region (mb/d)
| Region | 2024 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2024-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Americas | 24.9 | 25.7 | 25.5 | 24.3 | 23.0 | 21.9 | -3.0 |
| OECD Europe | 13.5 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 9.8 | -3.7 |
| OECD Asia-Pacific | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | -1.8 |
| OECD Total | 45.7 | 46.6 | 45.0 | 42.2 | 39.5 | 37.2 | -8.5 |
| China | 16.7 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.4 | +1.8 |
| India | 5.6 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 13.7 | +8.2 |
| Other Asia | 9.7 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 15.0 | +5.3 |
| Latin America | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | +3.0 |
| Middle East | 8.8 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | +4.7 |
| Africa | 4.6 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 8.8 | +4.2 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | +0.1 |
| Other Eurasia | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | +0.4 |
| Other Europe | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Non-OECD Total | 58.0 | 66.7 | 72.8 | 77.8 | 82.1 | 85.7 | +27.7 |
| World | 103.7 | 113.3 | 117.9 | 120.0 | 121.6 | 122.9 | +19.2 |
3.2 Oil Demand by Sector (mb/d)¶
| Sector | 2024 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transportation | - | - | - | - | - | - | +5.3 |
| Aviation | - | - | - | - | - | - | +4.2 |
| Petrochemicals | 15.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 19.3 | 19.9 | 20.2 | +4.7 |
| Resid./Comm./Agr. | 11.4 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 13.6 | +2.3 |
| Other industry | 12.9 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
| Marine bunkers | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | +0.9 |
| Rail/waterways | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.3 |
| Electricity generation | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -0.5 |
Transportation accounts for >57% of global oil demand in 2024 and retains this share through 2050.
3.3 Oil Demand by Product (mb/d)¶
| Product | 2024 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane/LPG | 14.7 | 16.3 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 17.9 | 18.3 | +3.6 |
| Naphtha | 6.9 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | +2.7 |
| Gasoline | 27.2 | 28.9 | 29.6 | 29.9 | 30.1 | 30.3 | +3.1 |
| Light products | 48.8 | 53.2 | 55.1 | 56.5 | 57.4 | 58.2 | +9.4 |
| Jet/kerosene | 7.8 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 11.9 | +4.1 |
| Gasoil/diesel | 28.7 | 31.0 | 32.3 | 32.6 | 32.7 | 33.1 | +4.4 |
| Middle distillates | 36.5 | 40.3 | 42.4 | 43.4 | 44.3 | 45.1 | +8.6 |
| Residual fuel | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| Other products | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.3 | +0.7 |
| Heavy products | 18.4 | 19.8 | 20.3 | 20.1 | 19.8 | 19.7 | +1.3 |
| World total | 103.7 | 113.3 | 117.9 | 120.0 | 121.6 | 122.9 | +19.2 |
3.4 Vehicle Fleet Projections¶
- Global vehicle fleet: 1.7 billion (2024) to 2.9 billion (2050)
- ICE vehicles still account for ~72% of global fleet in 2050
- EV sales have fallen behind initial expectations; projections revised downward
- OECD EVs increase by 267 million, but ICE passenger vehicles decline by ~185 million
- OECD total vehicles increase by ~108 million (2024-2050)
- EU current emissions target: 93.6 g CO2/km, tightening to 49.5 g CO2/km by 2030
- SAF provided <0.5% of global aviation fuel in 2024
- EU ReFuelEU Aviation target: 70% SAF blend by 2050
4. Liquids Supply¶
4.1 Global Supply Outlook¶
Total global liquids supply rises from 102.4 mb/d (2024) to 123.0 mb/d (2050).
Non-DoC (non-Declaration of Cooperation) supply: 53.3 mb/d (2024) to 58.9 mb/d (2050), +5.6 mb/d DoC supply: 49.1 mb/d (2024) to 64.1 mb/d (2050), +15.0 mb/d
DoC share of global supply rises from 48% (2024) to 52% (2050).
4.2 Non-DoC Supply by Type (mb/d)¶
| Type | 2024 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude | 32.1 | 34.9 | 34.3 | 32.9 | 31.4 | 29.8 | -2.4 |
| NGLs | 11.1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.4 | +2.3 |
| Biofuels | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | +2.1 |
| Other liquids | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.9 | +2.6 |
| Refinery processing gains | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | +1.0 |
| Total non-DoC | 53.3 | 59.0 | 59.8 | 59.7 | 59.3 | 58.9 | +5.6 |
4.3 Key Country Supply Outlooks¶
United States: - Peak at just over 23 mb/d in 2030; total non-DoC peak at ~60 mb/d in mid-2030s - US tight oil: 14.7 mb/d (2024) to peak 16.5 mb/d (2030), then declining to 14.8 mb/d (2050) - US & Canada need ~$250 billion p.a. average upstream investment
Brazil: - 4.2 mb/d (2024) to peak ~5.8 mb/d (late 2030s), still 5.7 mb/d by 2050 - 17 major FPSOs coming onstream, adding 2.9 mb/d gross capacity - Equatorial Margin could add 1.1 mb/d starting 2029 - Oil is Brazil's #1 export (13.3% of total exports, $44.8 bn in 2024)
Argentina: - 0.9 mb/d (2024) to 1.8 mb/d (2050); Vaca Muerta tight oil key driver - $3 bn Vaca Muerta South pipeline (550 tb/d, expandable to 700 tb/d) under construction
Canada: - Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion commissioned May 2024 (+590 tb/d to 890 tb/d total) - Further supply growth may require additional pipeline capacity
Qatar: - 1.9 mb/d (2024) to 2.4 mb/d (2030), 2.5 mb/d by 2050 - North Field gas expansion driving NGLs growth: 1.1 to 1.6 mb/d by 2030
China: - Total liquids flat ~4.6 mb/d medium-term; crude declining from 4.2 to 3.6 mb/d by 2050 - Biofuels/other liquids partially offsetting decline
India: - 0.8 mb/d (2024), peaking ~0.9 mb/d (2030), back to 0.8 mb/d (2050) - Ethanol blending target: 20% in gasoline by 2025-2026
4.4 Tight Oil Production (mb/d)¶
| Country | 2024 | 2030 | 2050 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 14.7 | 16.5 | 14.8 | +0.1 |
| Canada | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.1 |
| Argentina | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | +0.9 |
| China | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | +0.2 |
| Total | 16.7 | 19.0 | 18.1 | +1.3 |
5. Investment Requirements¶
5.1 Total Oil Industry Investment: $18.2 Trillion (2025-2050)¶
| Segment | Cumulative ($ trn, 2025 real) | Annual Average |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | $14.9 | $574 bn p.a. |
| Downstream | $2.0 | ~$77 bn p.a. |
| Midstream | $1.3 | ~$50 bn p.a. |
| Total | $18.2 | $700 bn p.a. |
5.2 Upstream Investment by Region¶
- US & Canada: ~$250 bn p.a. average; largest regional share
- DoC share: Rises from 25% of global upstream spending in 2025 to 40% by 2050
- DoC: $120 bn p.a. (2025) rising to ~$240 bn p.a. (2050)
- Other non-DoC: $90 bn p.a. (2025) rising to ~$150 bn p.a. (2050)
5.3 Downstream Investment Breakdown¶
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Refinery capacity expansions | >$600 bn |
| Maintenance & capital replacement (2025-2050) | ~$1.4 tn |
| Medium-term new projects | ~$194 bn |
Medium-term downstream investment by region: - Other Asia-Pacific: $76 bn - Middle East: >$40 bn - Africa: >$40 bn - China: >$36 bn - Russia & Caspian: ~$15 bn - Latin America: ~$12 bn
Post-2030 downstream investment requirements: - Other Asia-Pacific: >$92 bn - China, Middle East, Africa: ~$60 bn each - Latin America: ~$40 bn - US & Canada: ~$30 bn - Russia & Caspian: ~$30 bn - Europe: <$7 bn
6. Refining Outlook¶
6.1 Existing Capacity¶
- Global distillation capacity (Jan 2025): 102.5 mb/d
- ~1 mb/d new capacity came online in 2024 (Dangote/Nigeria, Yulong/China, Visakhapatnam/India)
- 2024 closures: 0.33 mb/d (vs 1.2 mb/d avg 2020-2023)
- NDRC capped China refining at 20 mb/d by 2025
Base capacity by region (mb/d, atmospheric distillation):
| Region | Capacity |
|---|---|
| US & Canada | 19.6 |
| Other Asia-Pacific | 18.9 |
| China | 17.8 |
| Europe | 14.8 |
| Middle East | 11.5 |
| Latin America | 8.0 |
| Russia & Caspian | 7.9 |
| Africa | 3.9 |
| World | 102.5 |
6.2 Medium-Term Capacity Additions (2025-2030): 5.8 mb/d¶
| Region | Additions (mb/d) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Other Asia-Pacific | 2.2 | 37.4% |
| China | 1.0 | 17.7% |
| Middle East | 1.0 | 17.2% |
| Africa | 1.2 | 20.5% |
| Latin America | 0.2 | 3.4% |
| US & Canada | 0.1 | 1.5% |
| Russia & Caspian | 0.1 | 1.6% |
| Europe | 0.0 | 0.8% |
| World | 5.8 | 100% |
90% of additions in developing regions (Asia-Pacific, Africa, Middle East).
6.3 Long-Term Refining Additions: 19.5 mb/d (2025-2050)¶
- 2025-2030: 5.8 mb/d
- 2030-2035: 7.3 mb/d
- 2035-2040: ~3 mb/d
- 2040-2045: ~2.2 mb/d
- 2045-2050: ~1.2 mb/d
~70% of additions materialize before 2035. ~86% located in Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Middle East.
6.4 Utilization & Throughputs¶
- Global utilization: 80.4% (2024) to 83.3% (2030)
- Global runs: 82.4 mb/d (2024) to 89.6 mb/d (2030) to 94.7 mb/d (2040) to ~96 mb/d (2050)
- Downstream market deficit: rises from ~0.5 mb/d (2027) to ~1.6 mb/d (2030)
- Medium-term closures: ~1 mb/d; post-2030 closures: up to 4 mb/d (mostly developed regions)
6.5 Secondary Capacity Requirements (2025-2050)¶
| Process | Additions (mb/d) |
|---|---|
| Desulphurization | 20.4 |
| Conversion (FCC/coking/hydrocracking) | 11.2 |
| Octane units | 6.3 |
7. Oil Trade / Movements¶
7.1 Global Trade Volumes¶
| Year | Crude & Condensate (mb/d) | Products (mb/d) | Total (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 36.8 | 18.0 | ~55 |
| 2030 | 41.7 | ~20 | >61 |
| 2035 | - | - | ~66 |
| 2040 | 46.5 | - | 67.5 |
| 2050 | 47.3 | >21 | 68.5 |
Global trade grows by ~25% by 2050.
7.2 Key Trade Routes¶
Middle East exports: - 17.4 mb/d (2024) to 28.2 mb/d (2050) crude & condensate - >80% shipped to Asia-Pacific by 2050 - ME to Asia-Pacific: 15.2 mb/d (2024) to 23.5 mb/d (2050) = 50% of global crude trade in 2050
Latin America exports: 4.4 mb/d (2024) to 6.7 mb/d (2050) US & Canada exports: 4.1 to 5.3 mb/d (2030), then declining to 3.3 mb/d (2050) Africa exports: ~5.2 mb/d stable to 2035, declining to 4.2 mb/d (2050) due to domestic use Europe imports: declining from 9.1 mb/d (2024) to 7.8 mb/d (2050) Asia-Pacific imports: 24.2 mb/d (2024) to 34.1 mb/d (2050)
7.3 Crude Quality Trends¶
- Average API gravity: 33.6 deg in 2024, declining gradually thereafter
- Average sulphur content trending higher as global crude slate becomes heavier
- Driven by rising heavy supply from Canada, Latin America, Middle East; declining light US supply
8. Energy Scenarios¶
8.1 Reference Case (baseline)¶
- Oil demand: 122.9 mb/d by 2050
- Total energy: 377.8 mboe/d by 2050
- Oil/gas combined share >50% through 2050
8.2 Technology-Driven Scenario (TDS)¶
- Accelerated technology investment in EVs, efficiency, fuel substitution
- Oil demand gap vs Reference Case: ~5 mb/d by 2035, expanding to 16.7 mb/d by 2050
- Oil demand in TDS: under 107 mb/d by 2050
- Non-OECD demand still ~75 mb/d (plateaus); ~9 mb/d below Reference Case
- OECD sees deeper demand cuts
8.3 Equitable Growth Scenario (EGS)¶
- More equitable economic development for developing countries
- Differentiated approach to emission reduction timelines
- Oil demand: 120 mb/d by 2035; 130 mb/d by 2050
- +3 mb/d vs Reference Case by 2035; +6.5 mb/d by 2050
8.4 Range of Oil Demand Outcomes in 2050¶
| Scenario | 2050 Oil Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|
| Technology-Driven | <107 |
| Reference Case | 122.9 |
| Equitable Growth | ~130 |
9. OPEC's View on Energy Transition¶
Key positions articulated in the WOO 2025:
- No peak oil demand: OPEC sees continued growth to 122.9 mb/d by 2050 in Reference Case
- History of energy is additions, not subtractions: The world consumes more of every fuel than ever before
- Oil/gas share resilient: Combined share ~80% in 1960 vs ~80% in 2024 despite 5x consumption growth
- Phase-out narrative rejected: Described as "unworkable, and a fantasy" -- policymakers increasingly recognising this
- Energy access imperative: Billions still lack energy access; developing world drives nearly all growth
- Investment critical: $18.2 tn needed; shortfalls could impact market stability and energy security
- Emissions reduction through technology: CCUS, direct air capture, circular carbon economy -- not fuel abandonment
- EV adoption stalling: Sales behind expectations, policies being revised (UK delayed ICE ban to 2035, EU pushback)
- SAF challenges: <0.5% of aviation fuel in 2024; cost/scalability barriers significant
- Renewables facing headwinds: Grid integration, permitting, financing costs, intermittency challenges; Spain/Portugal blackout cited
10. Focus on Brazil (Chapter 8)¶
- GDP: $4.1 tn (2024 PPP), 7th largest economy
- Population: 212 mn, 87% urbanized
- Oil industry: 17.2% of industrial GDP, 1.6 million jobs
- Oil = top export: $44.8 bn (13.3% of total), China buys ~44%
- Primary energy demand: 6.5 mboe/d (2024) to 9.8 mboe/d (2050), +50%
- Oil demand: 3.4 mb/d (2024) to 4.8 mb/d (2050), +40%
- Total liquids production: doubled to 4.2 mb/d (2010-2024); peak ~5.8 mb/d (late 2030s)
- 18 refineries, 2.4 mb/d installed capacity
- 49% of primary energy and ~90% of electricity from renewables
- COP30 presidency in 2025; $1.3 tn/year climate finance target by 2035
11. Key Data for Investment Decision-Making¶
Critical Numbers for Crude Oil Industry Chain Analysis¶
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024 global oil demand | 103.7 mb/d |
| 2030 global oil demand | 113.3 mb/d |
| 2050 global oil demand (Ref Case) | 122.9 mb/d |
| 2050 global oil demand (TDS low) | <107 mb/d |
| 2050 global oil demand (EGS high) | ~130 mb/d |
| Demand growth 2024-2030 | +9.6 mb/d |
| Demand growth 2024-2050 | +19.2 mb/d |
| India incremental demand 2024-2050 | +8.2 mb/d (largest single contributor) |
| OECD demand decline 2024-2050 | -8.5 mb/d |
| Non-OECD demand growth 2024-2050 | +27.7 mb/d |
| Non-DoC supply peak | ~60 mb/d (mid-2030s) |
| US tight oil peak | 16.5 mb/d (2030) |
| DoC required supply growth | +15.0 mb/d (2024-2050) |
| Total investment needed 2025-2050 | $18.2 tn |
| Upstream investment annual avg | $574 bn |
| Global refinery capacity (Jan 2025) | 102.5 mb/d |
| Required refining additions to 2050 | 19.5 mb/d |
| Global oil trade 2050 | 68.5 mb/d (+25% vs 2024) |
| ME-to-Asia crude route share 2050 | 50% of global trade |
| Vehicle fleet growth | 1.7 bn to 2.9 bn |
| ICE share of fleet in 2050 | ~72% |
| Petrochemical demand growth | +4.7 mb/d |
| Gasoline demand 2050 | 30.3 mb/d (+3.1 vs 2024) |
| Diesel demand 2050 | 33.1 mb/d (+4.4 vs 2024) |
| Jet/kerosene demand 2050 | 11.9 mb/d (+4.1 vs 2024) |
Supply-Demand Gap Implication¶
After non-DoC supply plateaus around 60 mb/d in the mid-2030s, all incremental supply must come from DoC producers. DoC liquids must rise from 49.1 mb/d to 64.1 mb/d -- a 15 mb/d increase representing the structural call on OPEC+ capacity. This is the single most important structural feature of the long-term oil market according to this outlook.