EIA STEO Forecast Evolution: Month-by-Month Data Tables (Jan 2025 - Mar 2026)
This page tracks the precise numerical evolution of EIA's key forecasts across 15 consecutive monthly STEO editions. All figures are extracted directly from the overview summary tables and narrative text of each report.
1. Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast ($/barrel)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
Year After |
| Jan 2025 |
$74 (2025) |
$66 (2026) |
-- |
| Feb 2025 |
$74 (2025) |
$66 (2026) |
-- |
| Mar 2025 |
$74 (2025) |
$68 (2026) |
-- |
| Apr 2025 |
$68 (2025) |
$61 (2026) |
-- |
| May 2025 |
$66 (2025) |
$59 (2026) |
-- |
| Jun 2025 |
$66 (2025) |
$59 (2026) |
-- |
| Jul 2025 |
$69 (2025) |
$58 (2026) |
-- |
| Aug 2025 |
$67 (2025) |
$51 (2026) |
-- |
| Sep 2025 |
$68 (2025) |
$51 (2026) |
-- |
| Oct 2025 |
$69 (2025) |
$52 (2026) |
-- |
| Nov 2025 |
$69 (2025) |
$55 (2026) |
-- |
| Dec 2025 |
$69 (2025) |
$55 (2026) |
-- |
| Jan 2026 |
$69 (2025) |
$56 (2026) |
$54 (2027) |
| Feb 2026 |
$69 (2025) |
$58 (2026) |
$53 (2027) |
| Mar 2026 |
$69 (2025) |
$79 (2026) |
$64 (2027) |
Brent 2026 forecast trajectory: $66 -> $66 -> $68 -> $61 -> $59 -> $59 -> $58 -> $51 -> $51 -> $52 -> $55 -> $55 -> $56 -> $58 -> $79
Low: $51/b (Aug-Sep 2025 STEOs)
High: $79/b (Mar 2026 STEO)
Range: $28/b
March 2026 revision: +$21/b from prior month (+37%) -- the single largest monthly revision
2. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast (million barrels per day)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
Year After |
| Jan 2025 |
13.5 (2025) |
13.6 (2026) |
-- |
| Feb 2025 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.7 (2026) |
-- |
| Mar 2025 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.8 (2026) |
-- |
| Apr 2025 |
13.5 (2025) |
13.6 (2026) |
-- |
| May 2025 |
13.4 (2025) |
13.5 (2026) |
-- |
| Jun 2025 |
13.4 (2025) |
13.4 (2026) |
-- |
| Jul 2025 |
13.4 (2025) |
13.4 (2026) |
-- |
| Aug 2025 |
13.4 (2025) |
13.3 (2026) |
-- |
| Sep 2025 |
13.4 (2025) |
13.3 (2026) |
-- |
| Oct 2025 |
13.5 (2025) |
13.5 (2026) |
-- |
| Nov 2025 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.6 (2026) |
-- |
| Dec 2025 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.5 (2026) |
-- |
| Jan 2026 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.6 (2026) |
13.3 (2027) |
| Feb 2026 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.6 (2026) |
13.3 (2027) |
| Mar 2026 |
13.6 (2025) |
13.6 (2026) |
13.8 (2027) |
2026 production forecast trajectory: 13.6 -> 13.7 -> 13.8 -> 13.6 -> 13.5 -> 13.4 -> 13.4 -> 13.3 -> 13.3 -> 13.5 -> 13.6 -> 13.5 -> 13.6 -> 13.6 -> 13.6
Notable: 2027 forecast swung from 13.3 mb/d (Jan-Feb 2026) to 13.8 mb/d (Mar 2026) -- a +0.5 mb/d revision driven by higher oil prices stimulating more drilling.
3. Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast ($/MMBtu)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
Year After |
| Jan 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$4.00 (2026) |
-- |
| Feb 2025 |
$3.80 (2025) |
$4.20 (2026) |
-- |
| Mar 2025 |
$4.20 (2025) |
$4.50 (2026) |
-- |
| Apr 2025 |
$4.30 (2025) |
$4.60 (2026) |
-- |
| May 2025 |
$4.10 (2025) |
$4.80 (2026) |
-- |
| Jun 2025 |
$4.00 (2025) |
$4.90 (2026) |
-- |
| Jul 2025 |
$3.70 (2025) |
$4.40 (2026) |
-- |
| Aug 2025 |
$3.60 (2025) |
$4.30 (2026) |
-- |
| Sep 2025 |
$3.50 (2025) |
$4.30 (2026) |
-- |
| Oct 2025 |
$3.40 (2025) |
$3.90 (2026) |
-- |
| Nov 2025 |
$3.50 (2025) |
$4.00 (2026) |
-- |
| Dec 2025 |
$3.56 (2025) |
$4.01 (2026) |
-- |
| Jan 2026 |
$3.53 (2025) |
$3.46 (2026) |
$4.59 (2027) |
| Feb 2026 |
$3.53 (2025) |
$4.31 (2026) |
$4.38 (2027) |
| Mar 2026 |
$3.53 (2025) |
$3.76 (2026) |
$3.85 (2027) |
2026 Henry Hub forecast trajectory: $4.00 -> $4.20 -> $4.50 -> $4.60 -> $4.80 -> $4.90 -> $4.40 -> $4.30 -> $4.30 -> $3.90 -> $4.00 -> $4.01 -> $3.46 -> $4.31 -> $3.76
Key dynamics:
- Rose from $3.10 to $4.30 in Jan-Apr 2025 (cold weather, LNG demand)
- Peaked at $4.90 in Jun 2025 STEO (production lagging demand)
- Declined Jul-Oct 2025 as production exceeded expectations
- Jan 2026 crashed to $3.46 (oversupply expected)
- Feb 2026 spiked to $4.31 (Winter Storm Fern, $7.72 actual January spot)
- Mar 2026 fell to $3.76 (more associated gas production from higher oil prices pushes Henry Hub DOWN)
4. U.S. GDP Growth Forecast (%)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
Year After |
| Jan 2025 |
2.0% (2025) |
2.0% (2026) |
-- |
| Feb 2025 |
2.1% (2025) |
2.0% (2026) |
-- |
| Mar 2025 |
2.4% (2025) |
2.2% (2026) |
-- |
| Apr 2025 |
2.0% (2025) |
2.0% (2026) |
-- |
| May 2025 |
1.5% (2025) |
1.6% (2026) |
-- |
| Jun 2025 |
1.4% (2025) |
1.7% (2026) |
-- |
| Jul 2025 |
1.4% (2025) |
1.9% (2026) |
-- |
| Aug 2025 |
1.4% (2025) |
2.0% (2026) |
-- |
| Sep 2025 |
1.7% (2025) |
2.4% (2026) |
-- |
| Oct 2025 |
1.8% (2025) |
2.4% (2026) |
-- |
| Nov 2025 |
2.0% (2025) |
2.2% (2026) |
-- |
| Dec 2025 |
2.0% (2025) |
2.2% (2026) |
-- |
| Jan 2026 |
2.0% (2025) |
2.2% (2026) |
1.9% (2027) |
| Feb 2026 |
2.2% (2025) |
2.4% (2026) |
2.0% (2027) |
| Mar 2026 |
2.2% (2025) |
2.6% (2026) |
2.1% (2027) |
Key pattern: GDP 2025 forecast cratered from 2.4% (Mar) to 1.4% (Jun-Aug) after April tariff shock, then gradually recovered to 2.0% by Nov as economy proved resilient (Q1 actual: -0.5%, but recovery followed).
5. Retail Gasoline Price Forecast ($/gallon, regular grade)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
| Jan 2025 |
$3.20 (2025) |
$3.00 (2026) |
| Feb 2025 |
$3.20 (2025) |
$3.10 (2026) |
| Mar 2025 |
$3.20 (2025) |
$3.20 (2026) |
| Apr 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$3.10 (2026) |
| May 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$3.10 (2026) |
| Jun 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$3.10 (2026) |
| Jul 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$3.00 (2026) |
| Aug 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$2.90 (2026) |
| Sep 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$2.90 (2026) |
| Oct 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$2.90 (2026) |
| Nov 2025 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$3.00 (2026) |
| Dec 2025 |
$3.11 (2025) |
$3.00 (2026) |
| Jan 2026 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$2.92 (2026) |
| Feb 2026 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$2.91 (2026) |
| Mar 2026 |
$3.10 (2025) |
$3.34 (2026) |
6. Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance (million barrels per day inventory change)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
Notes |
| Jan 2025 |
+0.3 (2025) |
+0.7 (2026) |
OPEC+ cuts keep Q1 tight |
| Feb 2025 |
draws Q1, +0.9 H2 |
+1.0 (2026) |
OPEC+ unwind starts Apr |
| Mar 2025 |
0.0 (2025) |
+0.5 (2026) |
Iran/Venezuela sanctions tighten |
| Apr 2025 |
builds from mid-2025 |
builds (2026) |
Demand cut on tariffs |
| May 2025 |
builds accumulating |
builds (2026) |
Production +1.3-1.4 mb/d both years |
| Jun 2025 |
rising inventories |
builds (2026) |
4th month of Brent decline |
| Jul 2025 |
+1.2 H1, +0.9 H2 |
+1.1 (2026) |
Iran conflict adds risk premium |
| Aug 2025 |
+1.6 (2025) |
+1.4 (2026) |
OPEC+ full acceleration; >2 mb/d in Q4/Q1 |
| Sep 2025 |
+1.7 (2025) |
+1.6 (2026) |
Peaking 2.3 mb/d Q4 2025-Q1 2026 |
| Oct 2025 |
rising |
rising (2026) |
U.S. production higher than expected |
| Nov 2025 |
rising |
rising (2026) |
China builds + Russia sanctions limit downside |
| Dec 2025 |
rising |
rising (2026) |
OPEC+ policy + China builds = price floor |
| Jan 2026 |
-- |
+2.8 (2026) |
+2.1 (2027); China strategic ~1.0 mb/d |
| Feb 2026 |
-- |
+3.1 (2026) |
+2.7 (2027); Weather disruptions |
| Mar 2026 |
-- |
+1.9 (2026) |
+3.0 (2027); Hormuz shut-in reduces 2026 builds |
7. Global Liquid Fuels Production Growth (million barrels per day, year-over-year)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
| Jan 2025 |
+1.8 (2025) |
+1.5 (2026) |
| Feb 2025 |
+1.9 (2025) |
+1.6 (2026) |
| Mar 2025 |
-- |
-- |
| Apr 2025 |
-- |
-- |
| May 2025 |
+1.3-1.4 (2025) |
+1.3-1.4 (2026) |
| Jun 2025 |
-- |
-- |
| Jul 2025 |
+1.8 (2025) |
+1.1 (2026) |
| Aug 2025 |
-- |
-- |
| Sep 2025 |
+2.3 (2025) |
+1.1 (2026) |
| Jan 2026 |
+2.9 (2025) |
+1.4 (2026) |
8. Global Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth (million barrels per day, year-over-year)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
| Jan 2025 |
+1.3 (2025) |
+1.1 (2026) |
| Feb 2025 |
+1.4 (2025) |
+1.0 (2026) |
| Apr 2025 |
+0.9 (2025) |
+1.0 (2026) |
| May 2025 |
~+1.0 (2025) |
~+1.0 (2026) |
| Jul 2025 |
+0.8 (2025) |
+1.1 (2026) |
| Sep 2025 |
+0.9 (2025) |
+1.3 (2026) |
| Jan 2026 |
+1.2 (2025) |
+1.1 (2026) |
Pattern: Demand growth steadily revised down from 1.3-1.4 mb/d to 0.8-0.9 mb/d during the tariff shock period, then recovered to ~1.1-1.3 mb/d.
9. WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel, where reported)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
Year After |
| Jan 2025 |
$70 (2025) |
$62 (2026) |
-- |
| Jan 2026 |
$65 (2025) |
$52 (2026) |
$50 (2027) |
WTI consistently traded at a ~$4-5/b discount to Brent throughout the period.
10. LNG Export Forecasts (billion cubic feet per day)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
| Jan 2025 |
14 (2025) |
16 (2026) |
| Apr 2025 |
15 (2025) |
16 (2026) |
| Jul 2025 |
15 (2025) |
16 (2026) |
| Oct 2025 |
14.7 (2025) |
16.3 (2026) |
| Nov 2025 |
14.9 (2025) |
16+ (2026) |
| Jan 2026 |
15 (2025) |
16 (2026) |
| Mar 2026 |
15 (2025) |
17 (2026) |
LNG exports grew 25% in 2025 (from 12 Bcf/d in 2024), driven by Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3. Plaquemines consistently ramped faster than EIA expected.
11. OPEC+ Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day, where reported)
| STEO Edition |
Current Year |
Next Year |
| Aug 2025 |
43.7 (2025) |
44.2 (2026) |
| Aug prior |
43.2 (2025) |
43.8 (2026) |
12. Key Event Timeline Mapped to Forecast Revisions
| Date |
Event |
Impact on Next Brent Forecast |
| 2025-01-10 |
U.S. Russia oil sanctions |
Minimal (trade flow shifts) |
| 2025-02-01 |
Tariff Executive Order (Canada/Mexico/China) |
Delayed; no immediate impact |
| 2025-02-24 |
New Iran sanctions |
Brent 2026: $66->$68 (+$2) |
| 2025-02-24 |
Venezuela license revocations |
Brent 2026: $66->$68 (+$2) |
| 2025-03-03 |
OPEC+ confirms April unwind |
Offset by sanctions tightness |
| 2025-04-02 |
Reciprocal tariff Executive Order |
Brent 2025: $74->$68 (-$6); 2026: $68->$61 (-$7) |
| 2025-04-04 |
China 34% retaliation |
Amplified tariff impact |
| 2025-05-03 |
OPEC+ accelerates June increases |
Brent 2025: $68->$66 (-$2); 2026: $61->$59 (-$2) |
| 2025-05-28 |
U.S. Court halts reciprocal tariffs |
Not yet in model |
| 2025-06-04 |
BIS denies ethane export licenses to China |
Ethane exports -51% |
| 2025-06-13 |
Israel strikes on Iran (nuclear program) |
Brent spike $71->$80; 2025 +$3 |
| 2025-06-19 |
Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz closure |
Implied vol 68% (highest since Mar 2022) |
| 2025-06-25 |
Ceasefire announced |
Prices return to ~$68 |
| 2025-07-02 |
Ethane export licenses restored |
Ethane exports reversed back up |
| 2025-07-05 |
OPEC+ raises August targets |
Not in Jul STEO (published Jul 8) |
| 2025-08-03 |
OPEC+ full acceleration (unwind by Sep 2025) |
Brent 2026: $58->$51 (-$7) -- biggest decline |
| 2025-09-07 |
OPEC+ +137k b/d October |
Not in Sep STEO |
| 2025 H2 |
Oil inventories building 1.7-2.3 mb/d |
Sustained price decline |
| 2025 H2 |
China strategic stockpile builds ~1.0 mb/d |
Limited price downside |
| 2026-01-04 |
OPEC+ holds Q1 2026 flat |
Brent 2026: $55->$56 |
| 2026-01-xx |
Winter Storm Fern |
Henry Hub: $7.72 (Jan avg); forecast +24.6% |
| 2026-01-xx |
Venezuela oil blockade |
~0.6 mb/d disrupted |
| 2026-02-28 |
Middle East military action begins |
-- |
| 2026-03-01 |
OPEC+ +206k b/d April increase |
Partly offset by Hormuz |
| 2026-03-09 |
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed |
Brent $104/b; forecast: $58->$79 (+37%) |
13. Summary Statistics
Brent 2026 Forecast Revision Summary
- Starting forecast (Jan 2025): $66/b
- Pre-tariff plateau (Jan-Mar 2025): $66-$68/b
- Post-tariff trough (Aug-Sep 2025): $51/b
- Stabilization (Nov 2025 - Feb 2026): $55-$58/b
- Post-Hormuz (Mar 2026): $79/b
- Total range: $28/b ($51-$79)
- Largest single upward revision: +$21/b (Feb->Mar 2026, +37%)
- Largest single downward revision: -$7/b (Jul->Aug 2025, -12%; also Apr->May 2025 by same magnitude in 2025 forecast year)
U.S. Production 2026 Forecast Range
- Low: 13.3 mb/d (Aug-Sep 2025 STEOs)
- High: 13.8 mb/d (Mar 2025 STEO)
- Final (Mar 2026): 13.6 mb/d
- Range: 0.5 mb/d
Henry Hub 2026 Forecast Range
- Low: $3.46/MMBtu (Jan 2026 STEO)
- High: $4.90/MMBtu (Jun 2025 STEO)
- Final (Mar 2026): $3.76/MMBtu
- Range: $1.44/MMBtu
GDP 2025 Forecast Range
- Low: 1.4% (Jun-Aug 2025 STEOs)
- High: 2.4% (Mar 2025 STEO)
- Final actual: 2.0-2.2%
- Range: 1.0 percentage points