IEA Oil Market Report — March 2026
Summary
The IEA's March 12, 2026 Oil Market Report documents the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Following US-Israel joint air strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed, disrupting ~20 mb/d of crude and product flows — roughly 20% of world oil consumption. Brent surged from ~$72/b to a peak near $120/b before settling around $92/b. IEA member countries agreed on March 11 to release an unprecedented 400 mb from emergency reserves.
Supply Data
Global Supply
- February 2026 supply: 106.9 mb/d (+380 kb/d m-o-m)
- March 2026 projected: 98.8 mb/d (-8 mb/d m-o-m) — lowest since 1Q22
- Gulf producer shut-ins (by March 10): 7.9 mb/d crude + 2.0 mb/d condensates/NGLs = 9.9 mb/d total liquids
- Oil on water build: 78 mb additional barrels accumulated (8.6 mb/d build rate) — ~40 VLCCs stranded in Gulf
- Non-OPEC+ annual supply growth 2026: 1.2 mb/d (maintained despite crisis)
Country-Specific Shut-Ins
- Iraq: Reduced output at Rumaila, West Qurna 2, Maysan fields (storage full); northern operations halted by missile attacks (March 2)
- Qatar: Ras Laffan LNG/condensate shut by drone strikes (March 2-3); condensate/NGL output cut by 1.1 mb/d
- Kuwait: Production reductions from March 6 (storage tanks filling)
- Bahrain: Scaled back after Sitra refinery drone strike (March 8)
- UAE: Cut output at offshore fields (1.8 mb/d of 2025 exports); announced March 7
- Saudi Arabia: Curbing heavier offshore grades; shifting to lighter onshore via East-West Pipeline to Yanbu; Ras Tanura refinery attacked March 2 & 4
Bypass Routes
- Saudi East-West Pipeline: 7 mb/d capacity; currently used for 1.8 mb/d West Coast refining; Saudi Aramco CEO said pipeline can reach "near full capacity within a matter of days"
- UAE ADCOP Pipeline to Fujairah: 0.5-0.7 mb/d
- Additional supply potential: US LTO +380 kb/d by year-end; Canadian oil sands maintenance deferral up to 150 kb/d (15 mb over 2Q26)
Demand Data
Non-OECD Demand by Product (2026 forecast, kb/d)
| Product |
2019 |
2025 |
2026F |
Y-o-Y Change |
| LPG & Ethane |
7,689 |
8,963 |
9,018 |
+55 (+0.6%) |
| Naphtha |
3,402 |
4,334 |
4,602 |
+268 (+6.2%) |
| Motor Gasoline |
12,308 |
13,467 |
13,530 |
+63 (+0.5%) |
| Jet Fuel & Kerosene |
3,357 |
3,286 |
3,358 |
+71 (+2.2%) |
| Gas/Diesel Oil |
15,057 |
15,903 |
16,151 |
+248 (+1.6%) |
| Residual Fuel Oil |
4,426 |
4,877 |
4,818 |
-58 (-1.2%) |
| Other Products |
6,990 |
7,409 |
7,446 |
+37 (+0.5%) |
| Total |
53,229 |
58,240 |
58,924 |
+684 (+1.2%) |
- Global demand growth 2026: Revised down 210 kb/d to 640 kb/d
- March-April demand cut: ~1 mb/d below previous estimates
- Saudi domestic oil demand: 3.4 mb/d (2025), down 80 kb/d y-o-y (largest decrease of any country); 5% below 2019 levels
Refining Data
Refinery Attacks
| Facility |
Capacity |
Date Attacked |
Status |
| Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) |
550 kb/d |
March 2 & 4 |
Partial/full shutdown |
| Sitra (Bahrain) |
400 kb/d |
March 8 |
Hit by drones |
| Ruwais (UAE) |
820 kb/d |
March 10 |
Attacked, shutdown |
Run Cuts
- March crude runs forecast: 79.7 mb/d (down 4.3 mb/d from previous month)
- 2Q26 runs: Reduced by 1.8 mb/d
- 2026 global runs: 83.8 mb/d (flat y-o-y, down 800 kb/d from previous estimate)
- March y-o-y contraction: 3 mb/d
- Middle East refining capacity at risk: >4 mb/d export-oriented capacity
- Product storage in region: ~2 weeks of production capacity at best
Product Market Impact
- Jet fuel cracks: Trebled from February levels
- Diesel cracks: 50% higher
- Jet fuel prices in Singapore: Surged >100% to >$240/bbl
- Refining margins: Returned to levels last seen after Russian invasion of Ukraine
Middle East Product Export Dependencies (2025 baseline)
| Product |
Export Volume |
Primary Destination |
Dependency |
| LPG |
1.5 mb/d |
Asia (99%); India 60%, China 25% |
India: 50% of LPG imports |
| Naphtha |
1.2 mb/d |
Asia (95%): Korea, Japan, ASEAN, China |
Asia: 67% of naphtha imports |
| Jet fuel to Europe |
280 kb/d |
OECD Europe |
60% of Europe's jet imports, 25% of demand |
| Gasoil/Diesel |
730 kb/d |
Africa, Asia |
Critical for African supply |
| Fuel oil |
760 kb/d |
Bunker market, Asian refineries |
15-20% of global fuel oil trade |
| Total refined products |
3.3 mb/d |
|
|
Price Data
Crude Prices
- North Sea Dated (at writing): $92/bbl
- February average (pre-crisis): North Sea Dated ~$71/bbl
- Price swing: Largest single-day swing EVER — up then down by ~$35/bbl in one day
- Brent front-month spread: Reached $10/bbl backwardation, eased to $4/bbl
- February structure: North Sea Dated slipped into contango at month-end ($0.50/bbl carry)
February Monthly Averages (Pre-Crisis Baseline)
| Benchmark |
Feb 2026 |
Jan 2026 |
Dec 2025 |
M-o-M Change |
| NYMEX WTI |
$64.52 |
$60.26 |
$57.87 |
+$4.26 |
| ICE Brent |
$69.37 |
$64.73 |
$61.63 |
+$4.64 |
| North Sea Dated |
— |
$66.73 |
$62.64 |
— |
Macroeconomic Context
- US 4Q25 GDP: 1.4% annualized (far below expectations, down from 4.4% in 3Q)
- US jobs: +130,000 in January (strong); -92,000 in February (unexpected loss)
- US CPI: 2.4% y-o-y (January), down from 2.7% in December
- US Consumer Confidence: 91.2 (February), up from 89 in January
- US equities: Down 3-4% YTD
- 10-year Treasury yield: Fell below 4% (safe-haven flows), then reversed on oil-driven inflation fears
- US Supreme Court: 6-3 ruling that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs under IEEPA were unconstitutional; $130 billion in duties collected, refund questions pending
- Japan: Nikkei +10% in February; PM Takaichi's snap election landslide victory
Key Claims
- This is "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" (IEA assessment)
- The emergency stock release is a "stop-gap measure" — insufficient without swift conflict resolution
- Saudi East-West Pipeline can reach "near full capacity within a matter of days" (Aramco CEO)
- India's exposure is "hardest to compensate in the near term"
- "Limited immediate potential to increase production" outside the region
- "Significant product draws are necessary to achieve market balance"
- Insurance and seafarer barriers will delay resumption even after military de-escalation
- IEA assumes "only minimal flows through the Strait of Hormuz in March" and models gradual normalization from late March
涉及实体
- strait-of-hormuz — critical chokepoint, effectively closed
- iran — target of US-Israel strikes, retaliating against UAE/Saudi/Bahrain/Qatar assets
- saudi-arabia — rerouting via East-West Pipeline to Yanbu; Ras Tanura attacked
- uae — ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah; Ruwais refinery attacked; offshore production cut
- iea — coordinated 400 mb emergency stock release
- opec-plus — major production curtailments across members
- saudi-aramco — strategic storage globally; CEO Nasser on pipeline capacity
参考资料
- Original file:
files/extracted/产业链框架数据(更迭/文本数据/研究报告/IEA-oil_market_report月度报告/IEA_202603_oil_market_report.pdf