EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — March 2026¶
Summary¶
The EIA's March 2026 STEO reflects the Middle East crisis impact on global energy markets. Brent crude settled at $94/b on March 9, up ~50% from the beginning of the year. The EIA forecasts Brent above $95/b for the next two months, declining below $80/b in Q3 2026 as Strait of Hormuz transit gradually resumes, averaging $79/b for 2026 (up 37% from February forecast of $58/b) and $64/b in 2027.
Key Data Points¶
- Brent spot: $94/b on March 9, 2026
- 2026 Brent forecast: $79/b (prev. $58/b, +37%)
- 2027 Brent forecast: $64/b (prev. $53/b, +22%)
- US crude production 2026: 13.6 mb/d (unchanged)
- US crude production 2027: 13.8 mb/d (prev. 13.3, +3.8%)
- US retail gasoline: $3.34/gal in 2026 (prev. year $3.10)
- Henry Hub nat gas: $3.76/MMBtu 2026, $3.85/MMBtu 2027
- US GDP growth: 2.6% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027
- US CO2 emissions: 4.8 billion metric tons 2026-2027
- Global demand growth revised down: -1.2 mb/d for 2026
- 2027 demand growth revised up: +0.3 mb/d (recovery)
Key Claims¶
- EIA assumes Strait of Hormuz effective closure will cause further Middle East production declines in coming weeks
- Assumes shut-in production will "gradually ease as transit through the Strait resumes"
- Higher oil prices lead to more US crude production — 2027 forecast up 0.5 mb/d from previous month
- Higher crude production drives more associated natural gas, potentially lowering US nat gas prices
- Coal exports may benefit if LNG trade disruptions persist
- Price forecast "highly dependent on modeled assumptions of both duration of conflict and resulting outages"
涉及实体¶
- eia — US Energy Information Administration
- strait-of-hormuz — assumed effective closure driving all forecast changes
- crude-oil — central commodity, massive price revision
参考资料¶
- Original file:
files/extracted/产业链框架数据(更迭/文本数据/研究报告/EIA_Short_Term_Energy_Outlook月度报告/EIA_202603_Short_Term_Energy_Outlook.pdf