OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report — March 2026¶

Summary¶

OPEC's March 11, 2026 MOMR reflects data through February — largely before the Feb 28 crisis escalation. The report presents a relatively calm pre-crisis picture: Brent averaged $69.37/b in February, global demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, and global GDP at 3.1%. This serves as the baseline against which the crisis impact should be measured. Notably, hedge funds were already turning bullish, boosting net long positions by 46% m-o-m.

Key Data Points (Pre-Crisis Baseline)¶

ORB (OPEC Reference Basket): $67.90/b (Feb avg, +$5.59 m-o-m)
Brent front-month: $69.37/b (Feb avg, +$4.64 m-o-m)
WTI front-month: $64.52/b (Feb avg, +$4.26 m-o-m)
Brent-WTI spread: $4.85/b
Global oil demand growth 2026: 1.4 mb/d (OECD +0.15, non-OECD +1.2)
Global oil demand growth 2027: 1.3 mb/d
Non-DoC supply growth 2026: 0.6 mb/d (US, Brazil, Canada, Argentina)
DoC crude demand 2026: 42.9 mb/d (+0.6 vs 2025)
OECD commercial stocks (Jan): 2,824 mb (-19.9 m-o-m)
Days forward cover: 62.0 days
Speculative net longs: +46% m-o-m
Global GDP 2026: 3.1%; 2027: 3.2%
China GDP: 4.5% both years; India: 6.6%/6.5%
US crude imports (Feb): +5% m-o-m
China crude imports (Jan): 12 mb/d, above 5-year average

Key Claims¶

Forward curves in backwardation, supported by "firm physical market fundamentals"
Non-OECD demand (especially India, China) drives global demand growth
US trade issues "expected to normalize"
India achieved 5% GDP target; China on track
VLCC freight rates up 65% m-o-m on Middle East-to-East route (early indicator of tightening)

Note: This report predates the Feb 28 crisis. All forecasts represent a pre-war baseline and are now significantly outdated.

涉及实体¶

opec-plus — DoC crude production up 445 tb/d in Feb to 42.72 mb/d
crude-oil — pre-crisis baseline pricing
china — crude imports above 5-year average at 12 mb/d
india — strong GDP and oil demand growth

参考资料¶

Original file: files/extracted/产业链框架数据(更迭/文本数据/研究报告/OPEC-oil market月度报告/OPEC_202603_oil_market_report.pdf