IEA Oil Market Report - Historical Source Extracts (2020-2024)¶

Source Description¶

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is the gold-standard monthly publication for global oil market fundamentals. Published by the International Energy Agency, it provides comprehensive analysis of oil demand, supply, refining, stocks, and prices. This document extracts key highlights from sampled reports (January and July of each year) to establish a five-year historical baseline for crude oil industry chain analysis.

Sampling methodology: January and July reports selected per year to capture beginning-of-year outlook and mid-year adjustment. For 2020, the available PDFs contained only the IEA Annual Statistical Supplement (not the OMR); 2020 data is reconstructed from the February 2021 OMR's retrospective analysis. For 2021, February was used in place of the missing January file.

2020: The COVID Collapse¶

Data Source: Retrospective from IEA OMR February 2021¶

Note: All 2020 PDF files (IEA_202001 through IEA_202011) in the archive contain the IEA Annual Statistical Supplement rather than the monthly Oil Market Report. The 2020 data below is derived from the February 2021 OMR, which includes a complete retrospective of the 2020 market.

Key Data Points¶

Annual demand 2020: ~91.0 mb/d (down 8.7 mb/d y-o-y, the largest annual decline on record)
Baseline 2019 demand: 99.7 mb/d (revised, staying below the symbolic 100 mb/d threshold)
OECD vs Non-OECD: Nearly two-thirds of the demand decline occurred in the OECD; non-OECD recovered faster
OECD industry stocks: Peak in May 2020; by December 2020, stocks stood at 3,063 mb (138.3 mb above five-year average)
Global supply January 2021: 93.6 mb/d
Atlantic Basin refinery intake 2020: 38.7 mb/d, the lowest in IEA records (back to 1971)
US crude oil supply 2020: Fell by 940 kb/d
Non-OPEC+ supply 2020: Declined by 1.3 mb/d

Key Themes¶

Unprecedented demand destruction from COVID-19 lockdowns
Massive OPEC+ production cuts (9.7 mb/d initial agreement in April 2020)
Historic inventory builds (global stock overhang)
Oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia (March 2020)
WTI futures briefly turned negative in April 2020
Refinery closures and throughput collapses

2021: Fragile Recovery¶

IEA OMR - February 2021 (published 11 February 2021)¶

Highlights¶

Demand forecast 2021: 96.4 mb/d (+5.4 mb/d y-o-y), recovering ~60% of volume lost in 2020
Q1 2021 demand: Expected to decline by 1 mb/d from already low Q4 2020 levels
Prices: ICE Brent rose above $60/bbl in early February; backwardation breached $4/bbl, returning to pre-pandemic levels
Global supply (Jan 2021): 93.6 mb/d (+590 kb/d as OPEC+ cuts eased)
OECD industry stocks (Dec 2020): 3,063 mb (138.3 mb above five-year average, declining for fifth consecutive month)
US crude supply forecast 2021: ~11.2 mb/d (broadly steady)
Non-OPEC+ growth forecast 2021: +830 kb/d
IMF GDP forecast 2021: 5.5% (raised from 5.2%)

Key Themes¶

"Fragile rebalancing" - vaccine rollout delays vs. improving economic outlook
Saudi Arabia voluntary extra 1 mb/d cut (February-March)
OPEC+ readiness to eliminate stock overhang
Permian Basin drilling recovery; US operators emphasising financial discipline
Canada pumping at record rates
COVID variant concerns weighing on near-term demand

IEA OMR - July 2021 (published 13 July 2021)¶

Highlights¶

Global demand June 2021: 96.8 mb/d (+3.2 mb/d surge after two months of decline)
Demand forecast 2021: +5.4 mb/d; 2022: +3.0 mb/d
2H21 demand forecast: 98.7 mb/d (4.6 mb/d above 1H21)
Prices: North Sea Dated rose to $72.96/bbl in June; peaked at $77.70/bbl on 5 July; Brent ~$75/bbl
Global supply (June): 95.6 mb/d (+1.1 mb/d)
OPEC+ crude production (June): 40.9 mb/d; call on OPEC+ crude: 42.8 mb/d in Q3, 44.1 mb/d in Q4
Non-OPEC+ growth: +770 kb/d in 2021; +1.6 mb/d in 2022
OECD industry stocks (May): 2,945 mb (75.8 mb below 2016-2020 average; 10.8 mb below pre-Covid 2015-19 average)
Floating storage (June): 83.3 mb (lowest since February 2020, down 23.7 mb)
US retail gasoline: Above $3/gal for first time in nearly seven years

Key Themes¶

"On edge" - OPEC+ negotiations deadlocked; UAE dispute over baselines
Stock overhang fully worked off; OECD stocks below historical averages
Inflation concerns from rising fuel prices globally (US, Europe, India, Brazil)
Delta variant uncertainty tempering sentiment
Potential for largest crude stock draw in a decade in Q3
Energy transition discussion: high prices could accelerate electrification

2022: Energy Crisis and War Premium¶

IEA OMR - January 2022 (published 19 January 2022)¶

Highlights¶

Q4 2021 demand: 99.0 mb/d (+1.1 mb/d, defying Omicron expectations)
Demand growth 2021 (revised): +5.5 mb/d; 2022 forecast: +3.3 mb/d (returning to pre-Covid 99.7 mb/d)
Prices: Brent rose to $87.30/bbl (18 Jan), highest since 2014; WTI ~$85/bbl
Global supply (Dec 2021): 98.6 mb/d (+130 kb/d); potential for Saudi-driven gain of 6.2 mb/d in 2022
OPEC+ under-production: 790 kb/d below target (Nigeria, Angola, Malaysia shortfalls; Russia below quota for first time)
OECD industry stocks (Nov): 2,756 mb (354 mb below year-ago; lowest in seven years)
Spare capacity forecast (2H22): Could shrink to 2.6 mb/d (Saudi Arabia and UAE)
US output forecast 2022: +1 mb/d to 17.7 mb/d
Refinery capacity 2021: Fell for first time in 30 years (by 730 kb/d)
Fuel switching: Gas-to-oil switching in Europe and China power generation (~100 kb/d additional demand)

Key Themes¶

"A tighter balance" - Omicron having muted impact on oil demand vs. earlier waves
OPEC+ members struggling to meet quotas (structural under-production)
Growing discrepancy between observed and calculated stock changes
Teleworking permanently reducing some demand
China zero-Covid policy creating supply chain disruptions
Record oil prices signalling tight physical markets

IEA OMR - July 2022 (published 13 July 2022)¶

Highlights¶

Demand growth 2022: +1.7 mb/d to 99.2 mb/d (trimmed on economic deterioration); 2023: +2.1 mb/d to 101.3 mb/d
Prices: Brent below $100/bbl (down >$20/bbl from early June highs); WTI ~$96/bbl
Global supply (June): 99.5 mb/d (+690 kb/d; resilient Russian production + US/Canada gains)
OECD industry stocks: 2,691 mb (301.3 mb below 2017-2021 average), aided by 32.1 mb government stock releases
Russian oil exports (June): 7.4 mb/d (down 250 kb/d m-o-m, lowest since Aug 2021); revenues $20.4 bn (+40% vs year-ago average)
Spare capacity: Saudi + UAE combined buffer could fall to 2.2 mb/d in August
Global supply forecast: Could hit record 101.1 mb/d in 2023
World Bank GDP growth 2022: 2.9% (down from 5.7% in 2021)

Key Themes¶

"Walking a tightrope" - recession fears vs. supply-side risks
Russia's invasion of Ukraine dominating market dynamics; EU embargo on Russian oil looming
Extreme refinery margins highlighting downstream bottlenecks
OECD demand weakening from high prices; non-OECD rebounding (China reopening)
Government strategic petroleum reserve releases (US, IEA coordinated)
Emerging market vulnerability to soaring USD and high fuel prices
Upstream and downstream spare capacity critically low

2023: China Reopening and Demand Records¶

IEA OMR - January 2023 (published 18 January 2023)¶

Highlights¶

Demand forecast 2023: 101.7 mb/d (+1.9 mb/d), an all-time high
China contribution: Nearly half of global demand growth from China reopening
Jet fuel: Largest single source of growth (+840-850 kb/d, 45% of total gains)
OECD Q4 2022 demand: Slumped by 900 kb/d y-o-y (weak industrial activity, weather)
Prices: ICE Brent $81.34/bbl in December (down $9.51/bbl m-o-m); North Sea Dated ~$83/bbl
Supply growth 2023 forecast: +1.0 mb/d (slowdown from OPEC+-led +4.7 mb/d in 2022)
Russian supply: 11.2 mb/d (Dec); exports fell 200 kb/d to 7.8 mb/d; revenues $12.6 bn (lowest since Feb 2021)
Russian discount: Up to $40/bbl vs. North Sea Dated
US/Canada/Brazil/Guyana: Each hitting annual production records for second straight year
OECD industry stocks: 2,779 mb (125.9 mb below five-year average but 37.1 mb above year-ago)
Oil on water: Surged by 181 mb y-o-y due to longer voyage distances (Russian flow reallocation)
EV/efficiency impact: Eliminating ~870-900 kb/d of incremental consumption in 2023

Key Themes¶

"Risk management" - Russia and China as twin wild cards
EU crude embargo and G7 price cap on Russian oil in effect (5 December 2022)
Russian diesel exports surging to EU ahead of product embargo
Energy efficiency gains and EV sales now measurably curbing demand growth
Mild European winter reducing heating oil demand
New Middle East and Chinese refining capacity providing diesel relief

IEA OMR - July 2023 (published 13 July 2023)¶

Highlights¶

Demand forecast 2023 (revised down for first time): 102.1 mb/d (+2.2 mb/d, down from +2.4 mb/d)
China share: 70% of global demand growth (1.6 mb/d), driven by petrochemical surge
2024 growth forecast: +1.1 mb/d (slowing on efficiency and EV fleet expansion)
Prices: North Sea Dated ~$75/bbl (down $49/bbl from year-ago); Brent ~$78/bbl
Global supply (June): 101.8 mb/d (+480 kb/d); forecast 2023: 101.5 mb/d; 2024: 102.8 mb/d (record)
Saudi Arabia: Implementing sharp 1 mb/d voluntary cut; crude output to fall to ~9 mb/d (two-year low) in July-August
Iran: Ramped up 530 kb/d over 8 months to five-year high (exempt from cuts due to sanctions)
Russian exports (June): 7.3 mb/d (lowest since March 2021); revenues $11.8 bn (nearly half of year-ago)
Non-OPEC+ 2024: Accounting for all of supply growth (+1.9 mb/d)
OECD stocks: Rose by 170 kb/d in May; China posted largest monthly crude stock increase in a year (+1.1 mb/d)
Manufacturing slump: Deepening globally, weighing on industrial fuel demand

Key Themes¶

"Running out of steam" - China's reopening failing to extend beyond travel/services
OPEC+ deepening voluntary cuts but offset by Iran, non-alliance producers
Petrochemical overcapacity: massive wave of Chinese plants reshaping global map
OECD (especially European) demand languishing amid industrial contraction
African countries cutting subsidies, seeing demand decline
Global observed inventories at highest since September 2021
G7 price caps reviewed; Russian revenue declining sharply

2024: The New Normal¶

IEA OMR - January 2024 (published 18 January 2024)¶

Highlights¶

Q4 2023 demand growth: +1.7 mb/d y-o-y (well below +3.2 mb/d in Q2-Q3 2023)
Demand growth 2023 (final): +2.3 mb/d; 2024 forecast: +1.2 mb/d
Supply forecast 2024: +1.5 mb/d to 103.5 mb/d (new record)
Prices: Brent ~$77/bbl; WTI ~$72/bbl (recovered ~$4/bbl from mid-December lows)
Key supply sources: US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada at record output; non-OPEC+ accounting for ~100% of growth
OPEC+ voluntary cuts: Assumed phased out gradually in Q2 2024
Russian exports (Dec): 7.8 mb/d (nine-month high); revenues $14.4 bn (six-month low on wider discounts)
Global inventories (Nov): Lowest since July 2022; crude and middle distillates particularly tight
Angola: Quit OPEC after 2024 quota dispute
Refinery throughputs 2024: Forecast 83.3 mb/d (overtaking 2018's record of 82.5 mb/d)
EV/efficiency headwinds: Expanding EV fleet and tighter efficiency standards compounding baseline effect

Key Themes¶

"Choppy waters" - Red Sea/Houthi attacks disrupting 10% of seaborne oil trade (~7.2 mb/d through Suez)
Post-COVID demand recovery essentially complete
Supply growth dominated by Americas (US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada)
OPEC+ relevance challenged by non-OPEC+ surge
IEA emergency stocks: ~4 billion barrels including 1.2 bn government-controlled
E-fuels discussion emerging as potential future challenge to conventional refining
US SPR replenishment underway after massive 2022 release

IEA OMR - July 2024 (published 11 July 2024)¶

Highlights¶

Q2 2024 demand growth: +710 kb/d y-o-y (slowest quarterly increase since Q4 2022)
Chinese consumption: Contracted in both April and May 2024 (first contraction after post-pandemic surge)
Demand growth forecasts: 2024: +970 kb/d; 2025: +980 kb/d (close to GDP-implied trend of ~3%)
Prices: Brent $86/bbl (recovered $5/bbl from six-month lows in June)
Global supply (June): 102.9 mb/d (+150 kb/d); 2024 full-year: +770 kb/d to record 103 mb/d
Non-OPEC+ supply 2024: +1.5 mb/d; OPEC+ output: -740 kb/d y-o-y (with maintained voluntary cuts)
2025 supply growth: +1.8 mb/d (non-OPEC+ contributing 1.5 mb/d)
Call on OPEC+ crude 2025: Tumbles to 41.1 mb/d
OECD industry stocks (May): 2,845 mb (69 mb below five-year average); on-land stocks at 30-month high
Refinery margins: Atlantic Basin close to multi-year lows; Chinese/European throughput pressured
OPEC+ unwinding roadmap: Plan to unwind 2.2 mb/d cuts from Q4 2024 through Q3 2025

Key Themes¶

"Summer heat" - seasonal demand peak masking structural deceleration
Chinese oil demand contraction: post-pandemic rebound definitively over
Demand growth normalising to pre-pandemic trend (~1 mb/d annual gains)
Non-OPEC+ (Americas) dominating supply for third consecutive year
Vehicle electrification and efficiency gains now structural headwinds to demand
Weak refinery margins signalling downstream overcapacity concerns
OPEC+ facing dilemma: unwinding cuts into a well-supplied market

Source File Inventory¶

Report	File	Status	Content Quality
2020 Jan	IEA_202001_oil_market_report.pdf	Contains Annual Statistical Supplement only	No OMR content available
2020 Jul	IEA_202007_oil_market_report.pdf	Contains Annual Statistical Supplement only	No OMR content available
2021 Feb	IEA_202102_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent - includes 2020 retrospective
2021 Jul	IEA_202107_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent
2022 Jan	IEA_202201_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent
2022 Jul	IEA_202207_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent
2023 Jan	IEA_202301_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent
2023 Jul	IEA_202307_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent
2024 Jan	IEA_202401_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent
2024 Jul	IEA_202407_oil_market_report.pdf	Full OMR extracted (pp. 1-8)	Excellent

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