IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 -- Key Findings¶

Report Context¶

Published October 2024 by the IEA under the direction of Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould.
Three main scenarios: STEPS (Stated Policies), APS (Announced Pledges), NZE (Net Zero Emissions by 2050).
Key backdrop: escalating Middle East conflict, Russia-Ukraine war, geopolitical fragmentation, and accelerating clean energy deployment.

Metric	Value
2023 global oil demand	~102 mb/d (implied from text)
STEPS oil demand peak	Before 2030
Post-peak decline driver	EVs, efficiency, electrification
India demand addition to 2035	~2 mb/d
EVs displacing oil demand by 2030	~6 mb/d
EV share of new car sales (2024)	~20%
EV share of new car sales by 2030 (STEPS)	~50%

Fossil fuel share: 82% (2013) -> 80% (2023) -> 58% (2050, STEPS).
Clean energy becomes largest energy source in mid-2030s (STEPS).
All three fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) peak before 2030 in STEPS.
Global final energy consumption: 445 EJ today -> 530 EJ by 2050 (STEPS).
Energy demand growth slows from 1.4%/yr (past decade) to ~0.5%/yr (2023-2035, STEPS).

Electricity demand growth: 2x pace of overall energy demand over past decade.
STEPS 2035 demand revised up 6% (~2,200 TWh) vs. WEO-2023, driven by cooling, data centres, EVs, light industry.
Cooling adds >1,200 TWh of extra demand by 2035 (STEPS).

Near-term supply growth from Americas: US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada.
OPEC+ spare capacity (2024): ~6 mb/d (excl. Iran/Russia).
OPEC+ spare capacity by 2030 (STEPS): rising to 8 mb/d -- signals significant supply overhang.
STEPS oil price assumption: ~USD 75-80/bbl, implying further OPEC+ production restraint.

~270 bcm of new LNG capacity approved, entering service by 2030 (led by US, Qatar).
LNG export capacity increase: ~50% by late 2020s.
LNG demand growth: >2.5%/yr to 2035 (STEPS), faster than overall gas demand.
Gas-importing developing economies need prices ~USD 3-5/MBtu; new export projects need ~USD 8/MBtu to break even.
Potential LNG surplus through at least 2030; oversupply could persist to 2040.

Scenario	Oil Price Implication
STEPS	~USD 75-80/bbl (equilibrium, requires OPEC+ restraint)
APS	Downward pressure; lower long-term demand reduces producer revenue
NZE	Significant price decline; stranded asset risk

Key dynamic: "downward pressure on prices and a period of increased competition among suppliers."
IEA notes a potential "overhang of oil and LNG supply" in second half of 2020s.

STEPS: All three fossil fuels peak before 2030. This is a landmark IEA finding.
Post-2030, continued energy demand growth can be met solely by clean energy (STEPS).
However, STEPS still results in 2.4C warming by 2100 -- far from Paris goals.

Scenario	2030 CO2 (Gt)	2050 CO2 (Gt)	Temp Rise (2100)
STEPS	~36	~32	2.4C
APS	~31	~12	1.7C
NZE	~25	~3	1.5C

20% of global oil and LNG flows through Strait of Hormuz.
Asia's oil import dependence rises to ~90% by 2050 (STEPS).
China oil import dependence: ~75% today -> 80%+ by 2050.
Clean energy supply chains heavily concentrated in China (solar, batteries).
~200 trade measures restricting clean energy tech since 2020 (vs. 40 in prior 5 years).

560 GW of new renewables capacity added in 2023.
Renewables capacity: 4,250 GW today -> ~10,000 GW by 2030 (STEPS).
Solar PV manufacturing capacity: ~1,100 GW/yr (potentially 3x 2023 deployment).
Clean energy investment: approaching USD 2 trillion/yr, ~2x oil+gas+coal supply spending combined.

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