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Crude Oil (原油)

Primary commodity discussed in the trading group. Referred to as the "mother of industry" (工业之母).

Analysis Framework

  • Macro dimension: US financial hegemony, energy substitution, historical cycles
  • Monetary cycle dimension: Credit currency over-issuance may push crude oil prices higher (as seen with precious metals and non-ferrous metals)
  • Data dimension: Historical vs. current data comparison for fundamental analysis; ATR for volatility measurement

Key Assessment

  • Short-term, crude oil cannot be fully replaced by new energy
  • Crude oil industry chain has potential for price elevation following the pattern of precious metals
  • Volatility driven by deep structural factors beyond surface-level geopolitics

参考资料